2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Models, Picks: Small Greens, Big Challenge

The PGA Tour's second signature event of the season has a stacked field on an iconic course requiring pinpoint ball striking.

An elite field is set to take on one of the most historic courses in the world this week at Pebble Beach. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The PGA Tour heads to historic Pebble Beach this week to play the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The 2025 edition of the tournament will be a signature event for the second consecutive season. Pebble Beach will get the star-studded field it deserves and a prize pool of $20 million, with $3.6 million going to the winner as well as 700 FedExCup points. 

This should be one of the most exciting events of the season, as we will finally get to see many of the best players in the world play at one of the world’s most iconic golf courses.

As Johnny Miller once said, “They say it’s the greatest meeting of land and sea in the world. This course was heaven designed.”

The event will utilize two courses, Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill Golf Course. It will be a no-cut event, with each golfer playing one round at Spyglass Hill and three at Pebble Beach. The pro-am portion of the event will be Thursday and Friday. 

The 80-man field will include the top 50 from last year’s FedEx Cup season plus 15 members who have played their way in through the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5. Current season tournament winners are also eligible to participate as well as eligible players in the top 30 of the Official World Golf Ranking not already qualified. 

Scottie Scheffler will be making his season debut this week as will Jordan Spieth.

Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par-72 measuring 6,972 yards and featuring Poa annua greens. Spyglass Hill is a par-72 measuring 7,035 yards.

Past winners at Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am

• 2024: Wyndham Clark (-17)
• 2023: Justin Rose (-18)
• 2022: Tom Hoge (-19)
• 2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
• 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
• 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
• 2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
• 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
• 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17)
• 2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Pebble Beach Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes-gained approach 

Unsurprisingly, approach grades out as the most important statistic for Pebble Beach.

On a shorter course, approaches to the green are understandably more indicative of success than smashing it off of the tee. With very small greens, Pebble Beach is undoubtedly a second-shot golf course.

Strokes-gained approach over past 24 Rounds:

1. Lucas Glover (+1.44)
2. Tom Kim (+1.23)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.21)
4. Justin Thomas (+1.06)
5. Tommy Fleetwood (+0.96)

Strokes-gained on “very short” courses

Pebble Beach is uniquely short for a par-72. This statistic will give a glimpse as to what kind of golfers play well on these types of courses.

Strokes-gained on “very short” courses over past 36 rounds:

1. Justin Thomas (+2.43)
2. Rory McIlroy (+2.20) 
3. Scottie Scheffler (+2.13)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.92) 
5. Seamus Power (+1.69) 

Strokes-gained putting on Poa

With the course being so short, one of its main defenses is the difficult Poa annua greens. Strokes-gained putting has historically been extremely important here, as evidenced by former winners. 

Strokes-gained putting on Poa over past 36 rounds:

1. Max Homa (+1.00)
2. Denny McCarthy (+0.74) 
3. Wyndham Clark (+0.64) 
4. Jason Day (+0.63) 
5. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.61) 

Course history

Pebble Beach has historically been a specialist’s course.  Every winner of this event since 2006 has a top-21 finish in a previous appearance. 

Strokes-gained at Pebble Beach over last 36 rounds:

1. Ludvig Aberg (+2.93)
2. Gary Woodland (+2.42) 
3. Jason Day (+2.35) 
4. Justin Rose (+1.94) 
5. Eric Cole (+1.83) 

Birdie-or-better percentage

With the winning score likely to get close to 20 under par, making birdies is a must this week.

Birdie-or-better percentage over past 24 Rounds

1. Sam Burns (32.6%)
2. Harry Hall (32.4%)
3. Max Greyserman (31.7%) 
4. Taylor Pendrith (30.6%)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (30.3%) 

Strokes-gained approach (very difficult)

With very small greens, I’m using this statistic to see which players excel with their irons when they’re faced with “very difficult” approach shots. 

Strokes-gained approach (very difficult) over past 36 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.88)
2. Shane Lowry (+1.11)
3. Tom Hoge (+0.99)
4. Justin Thomas (+0.77)
5. Si Woo Kim (+0.72)

Comparable courses rankings

New this year, I am going to generate a “mini model” of the best players at each of the comparable courses. For Pebble Beach, I am using Spyglass Hill, Monterey Peninsula, Port Royal, Sea Island (Seaside), El Camaleon, Waialae, Colonial and Riviera.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Viktor Hovland
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Justin Rose
6. Ludvig Aberg
7. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Rory McIlroy
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Cameron Young

Statistical model

Below, I have reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are a combination of strokes-gained approach (20%), strokes-gained on “very short” courses (14%), course history (14%), strokes-gained very difficult approach shots (14%), birdie-or-better percentage (12%), comparable course rankings (14%) and strokes-gained putting on Poa (12%).

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Justin Thomas
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Tom Hoge
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Ludvig Aberg
8. Max Homa
9. Denny McCarthy
10. Mark Hubbard

Last week's picks results for the Farmers Insurance Open:

Ludvig Aberg (12-1): T42
Sahith Theegala (30-1): T52

2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks

Justin Thomas +1700 (DraftKings)

I believe a massive year is in store for Justin Thomas. With Scottie Scheffler making his first start since injuring his hand and Xander Schauffele out nursing a rib injury, JT is the class of the field this week at Pebble Beach.

Over his past 36 rounds, Thomas ranks first in the field in strokes-gained on "very short" courses. He also ranks fourth in the field in strokes-gained approach. This week, hitting the small greens at Pebble Beach will make the difference, and there aren't many players in the field I trust to do that more than the two-time major champion. Putting has been the Achilles heel for Thomas, but he ranks 24th in the field in strokes-gained putting on Poa, which should be plenty good enough if paired with an elite ball-striking week.

In his most recent start at the American Express, Thomas made a weekend charge and seemed likely to threaten Sepp Straka on Sunday but finished in solo second place. He gained strokes significantly in all major stat categories and seemed to find something with the putter as well, gaining 5.4 strokes on the field.

It's been a while since Thomas has won on the PGA Tour, but I believe wins will be coming in bunches for the 31-year-old very soon.

Patrick Cantlay +2200 (DraftKings)

Another player who hasn't won in quite a while is Patrick Cantlay. Despite no wins of late (since the 2022 BMW Championship to be exact), Cantlay has been playing really good golf. Since the U.S. Open in June, Cantlay is yet to finish outside of the top 25 in his nine total starts.

I’ve always felt that Cantlay was destined to win at Pebble Beach. He ranks third in the field in strokes-gained total at Pebble Beach and has finishes in the top 21 in each of his last five starts there, including a third in 2021 and a fourth in 2022.

The former UCLA Bruin grew up in Long Beach, Calif., and is extremely comfortable playing on the West Coast. He also ranks fourth in strokes-gained total on “very short” courses and 12th in strokes-gained approach when faced with “very difficult” approach shots.

I still believe Cantlay is among the game’s elite and has a lot to prove in 2025.

Jason Day+4500 (DraftKings)

Jason Day has shown promising form with his ball striking in the early part of the 2025 season. At the Sentry, American Express and Farmers, the Australian gained 2.52, 7.52 and 3.96 strokes on approach and gained strokes off the tee in his last two starts.

Surprisingly, what’s held Day back so far this year has been his putting. He’s lost strokes putting in each of his three starts this season. There is reason to believe that changes this week. Day has played at Pebble Beach 15 times and has gained strokes putting 12 of them.

The 37-year-old has been fantastic overall at Pebble Beach throughout his career. He’s finished in the top 10 in eight of his last 12 trips to Pebble Beach. He ranks first in the field in strokes-gained total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

In 2020, Day told the late Steve DiMeglio in USA Today, “I don't know why I play well here. I would like to change having the top-fives. I would like to win. I love everything about Pebble and the landscape that all three golf courses are on. I enjoy going to Carmel. The people are great up here, so I really enjoy my time every time I come back here.”



The only thing that Day hasn’t done at Pebble Beach is win. With his ball striking peaking early in the season, this may be the best chance he has to get a win at one of his favorite courses.

Denny McCarthy+10000 (DraftKings)

Denny McCarthy is a player who excels on short courses where putting will be a major factor in deciding the winner.

Over his last 36 rounds, McCarthy ranks sixth in strokes-gained total on “very short” courses and seventh in strokes-gained total at Pebble Beach. The 31-year-old has finishes of T12, T4 and T26 in his last three trips to the course and has gained significant strokes putting in each of those three starts.

McCarthy’s 2025 got off to a solid start at the Sony Open where he finished T16. He gained 4.52 strokes on approach for the week which was the best iron performance he’s had since his playoff loss to Akshay Bhatia at the Valero Texas Open back in April.

Denny has yet to win on Tour, but there’s no doubt he has the talent to do so. At triple-digit odds, he's worth a shot this week at Pebble Beach.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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