2025 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Models, Picks: Accuracy, Short Game Key at Colonial

Colonial Country Club offers a stern test in the PGA Tour’s final stop in Texas.

The PGA Tour heads to Colonial Country Club to host the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge. / Erik Williams-Imagn Images

After an action-packed week at the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas to play the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth.

Colonial Country Club is a 7,289-yard par-70 and features bentgrass greens. The difficulty of the event this week will be influenced by the wind. The last six seasons have all produced winners with scores between 8 under and 15 under, with the two of the last three playing extremely difficult. 

The Charles Schwab Challenge is an invitational that will host 135 golfers this week, and the field is fairly strong at the top but drops off precipitously.

Some notable golfers in the field include Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Hideki Matsuyama, Maverick McNealy and Michael Kim.

Past winners at Charles Schwab Challenge

• 2024: Davis Riley (-14)
• 2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8)
• 2022: Sam Burns (-9)
• 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
• 2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
• 2019: Kevin Na (-13)
• 2018: Justin Rose (-20)
• 2017: Kevin Kisner (-10)
• 2016: Jordan Spieth (-17)

Key Stats for Colonial Country Club

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Colonial Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category.

Strokes-gained approach

Approach will be a major factor this week. It grades out as the most important statistic historically in events played at Colonial Country Club, and that should be the case once again this week.

Strokes-gained approach over past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.45)
2. Tony Finau (+1.12)
3. Collin Morikawa (+0.98)
4. Daniel Berger (+0.87)
5. Joseph Bramlett (+0.83)

Strokes-gained off the tee

Both distance and accuracy will be important this week. Historically, shorter hitters who find the fairway have thrived at Colonial, but last year we saw a lot of the players in the field use big drives to eliminate the challenge of doglegs and fairway bunkers.

The rough can be thick and penal, so finding the fairway will remain important.

Strokes-gained off the tee over past 24 rounds:

1. Pierceson Coody (+0.83)
2. Michael Thorbjornsen (+0.76)
3. Chris Gotterup (+0.72)
4. Scottie Scheffler (+0.69)
5. Jesper Svensson (+0.61)

Strokes-gained total in Texas

Players who play well in the state of Texas tend to play well in multiple events during the Texas swing. 

Strokes-gained total in Texas over past 36 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+3.04)
2. Jordan Spieth (+1.72)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.50)
4. Gary Woodland (+1.30)
5. Daniel Berger (+1.22)

Strokes-gained off the tee on courses with “high” rough penalty

This statistic will incorporate players who gain strokes off the tee when the rough is penal, which should be the case at Colonial this week. 

Strokes-gained off the tee on courses with “high” rough penalty over past 36 rounds:

1. Rico Hoey (+1.22)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+0.73)
3. Keith Mitchell (+0.65)
4. Hayden Buckley (+0.59)
5. Isaiah Salinda (+0.56)

Course history

Course history seems to be much more important at Colonial Country Club than most other courses. The same players tend to pop up on leaderboards here year after year.

Course history over past 24 rounds:

1. Davis Riley (+2.55)
2. Jordan Spieth (+2.08)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+1.74)
4. Harris English (+1.43)
5. Brian Harman (+1.27)

Strokes-gained putting on bentgrass

The bentgrass greens at Colonial are in immaculate condition, and putters who roll it pure are at an advantage. Historically, great putters have thrived at Colonial.

Strokes-gained putting on bentgrass over past 36 rounds:

1. Brian Campbell (+1.02)
2. Max Greyserman (+1.00)
3. Harris English (+0.87)
4. Vincent Whaley (+0.75)
5. J.T. Poston (+0.72)

Comparable course rankings

This season, I am going to generate a rankings list of the best players cumulatively at the comparable courses. For Colonial, I am using Harbour Town, Innisbrook, Southern Hills, Sedgefield, Pebble Beach, TPC Sawgrass, TPC San Antonio, TPC Potomac and Waialae. 

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Daniel Berger
3. Tommy Fleetwood
4. Brian Harman
5. Bud Cauley
6. J.T. Poston
7. Matt McCarty
8. Eric Cole
9. Lucas Glover
10. Tom Hoge

Charles Schwab Challenge model rankings

Below, I have compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed—strokes-gained approach (25%), strokes-gained off the tee (20%), strokes-gained off the tee on courses with “high” rough penalty (12%), strokes-gained total in Texas (10%), course history (10%), comparable courses (10%) and strokes-gained putting on bentgrass (14%).

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Daniel Berger
3. Aaron Rai
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Bud Cauley
6. Keith Mitchell
7. Emiliano Grillo
8. Harris English
9. J.J. Spaun
10. Rico Hoey

Last week's picks results for the PGA Championship

Bryson DeChambeau (14-1): T2
Joaquin Niemann (40-1): T8
Tyrrell Hatton (45-1): T60
Viktor Hovland (50-1): T28
Jason Day (80-1): MC

2025 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks

Jordan Spieth +2500 (BetMGM)

After the Masters, I believed the missed cut for Justin Thomas would be beneficial for his chances of winning the RBC Heritage before picking him to win. This week, I feel similarly about Jordan Spieth. The hype surrounding the career Grand Slam was understandable, but in reality Quail Hollow is not a fit for Spieth. 

Spieth absolutely loves Colonial. He won at the course in 2016 and has six additional top-10 finishes since then. Over his last 36 rounds, the three-time major winner ranks first in strokes-gained total at Colonial, fifth in strokes-gained off the tee on courses with high rough penalty, second in strokes-gained total in Texas and ninth in strokes-gained off the tee. 

Scottie Scheffler will be a major threat this week. It’s hard to envision him not being somewhere close to the lead when all is said and done this week, so I believe any player backed must have the type of game that can compete with Scheffler if things are clicking on all cylinders. Spieth in Texas is the player who gives us the best chance of that. 

Daniel Berger +2500 (DraftKings)

Despite not having a win in 2025, Daniel Berger is playing some fantastic golf on a consistent basis. In his past nine starts, he’s finished outside of the top 25 only once. That stretch includes a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T3 at the RBC Heritage, which was also the week after a major championship. 

At Quail Hollow, Berger struck the ball extremely well. For the week, he ranked fifth in strokes-gained off the tee and 15th in strokes-gained approach. The 32-year-old won at Colonial in a stacked field in 2020, demonstrating his ability to beat the best players in the world at this venue. 

In his past 24 rounds, Berger ranks third in strokes-gained approach and 25th in strokes-gained off the tee. If he can gain strokes with the putter, it’s hard to see him not being in the mix on Sunday with how he’s been playing this season. 

Ryan Gerard +7500 (DraftKings)

Ryan Gerard may not be an extremely well-known player quite yet, but he’s playing some great golf and seems to have a bright future on the PGA Tour. 

We’ve seen in past years that players who’ve done well in Texas that season leading up to the Charles Schwab Challenge have done really well at Colonial. Gerard finished ninth at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and second at the Valero Texas Open. His ball striking has been up and down this season but he’s demonstrated the ability to spike on approach, which is what I look for in an outright bet. 

At the PGA Championship, Gerard ranked third in the field in strokes-gained off the tee and finished T8, which is incredibly impressive for a player making their first ever PGA Championship start. 

If Gerard can keep up his strong Texas form, he will be a contender at Colonial. 

Gary Woodland +10000 (BetMGM)

Gary Woodland has had some recent back issues, but if healthy, I love his ability to play well this week at Colonial. 

Woodland ranks fourth in the field in strokes-gained total in Texas over his past 36 rounds. Earlier this season, the 40-year-old finished T2 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He’s made five starts at Colonial and finished in the top 15 in two of those starts, with his best finish coming in the star-studded 2020 field (ninth). 

Woodland missed the cut at last week’s PGA Championship, but played relatively well statistically while doing so. In his two rounds at Quail Hollow, he gained .76 strokes on approach, which doesn’t raise any red flags for his current form. 

Two starts ago at the Truist Championship, Woodland had his best strokes-gained approach start of the season. Although he’s had an unreliable putter for the past few seasons, the winning score should remain in the range that I feel confident he can get to. 

Rickie Fowler +10000 (BetMGM)

Given his inconsistent play over the past few seasons, this is obviously a long shot, but I believe he’s shown enough signs of life in recent weeks to take a chance on Rickie Fowler at long odds. 

Fowler started strong at the Truist Championship a few weeks ago. The 36-year-old opened with a 7-under 63 and ranked 10th in the field in strokes-gained approach for the day. He shot 1 under for the rest of the tournament and the T15 finish was his best since the Zozo Championship in the fall. 

After his opening round at the Philadelphia Cricket Club, Fowler expressed some confidence in the current state of his game. “My body's feeling better, kind of allowing me to go play golf. We made a minor adjustment yesterday, put my irons a degree up. I felt like I was making good swings and zeroing things out, and the ball was just hanging a little right from what I wanted to see. So it was good to kind of see things tighten up with irons today,” he said. 

“Yeah, I've been happy with where my game's been at for quite a while. I just haven't really seen the product of the work I'm putting in or what I feel like I can produce.”

Fowler missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but continued to show signs of improvement. He gained strokes on the field in his two rounds both on approach and off the tee. He lost 2.34 strokes around the green, which feels like more of an outlier than anything. 

In 11 trips to Colonial, Fowler has four top 20 finishes, including his best finish in 2023 where he finished T6. He might never be the major contender he once was, but I still believe the former Players champion is capable of winning on the PGA Tour. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000 (Caesars)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout may lack the recent finishes to show it, but I believe he's finding his form. At the Truist Championship, the South African gained strokes both off the tee and on approach for the first time since 2024. He followed that up with his best strokes-gained approach performance since the 2024 Players Championship last week at Quail Hollow. For the week, he ranked ninth for the week in approach, tied with the winner Scottie Scheffler. 

Bezuidenhout is a grinder. He’s not amongst the elite ball strikers on the PGA Tour but has an elite short game. The 31-year-old is one of the shorter hitters in the field, but Colonial is a course where being accurate off the tee, which he is, and having the ability to chip and putt can put you in contention. Bezuidenhout ranks 7th in the field in strokes-gained total in Texas and has finishes of T15, T21 and T17 in his last three trips to the course. 

Bezuidenhout hasn’t won on the PGA Tour but is an accomplished player who has won three times on the DP World Tour and has made two Presidents Cup appearances in 2022 and 2024. If he catches a hot putter, he can win on the PGA Tour. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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