2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Models, Picks: Going Low at TPC Craig Ranch

Birdies will be flying in the first of the PGA Tour’s two stops in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson returns to TPC Craig Ranch. / Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

For the fifth consecutive season, TPC Craig Ranch hosts the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. 

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,569-yard par-71 that features bentgrass greens. In the past, the course had used zoysia fairways but this season they were changed to Tiftuf bermuda overseeded with ryegrass. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the four editions at TPC Craig Ranch, with each winner eclipsing 23 under. 

The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.

There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for the year’s second major championship in a few weeks and a signature event at the Philadelphia Cricket Club next week. Notable players in the field include Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Nicolai Højgaard, Rasmus Højgaard, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Michael Kim, Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim, Jake Knapp and Will Zalatoris. 

Past winners of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

• 2024: Taylor Pendrith (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
• 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
• 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
• 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
• 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
• 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
• 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
• 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
• 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)

Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category.

Strokes-gained approach

Strokes-gained approach remains the best measure of current form.

Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Pendrith was a bit of an outlier, as he only ranked 38th in approach. In 2023, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in strokes-gained approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.

Strokes-gained approach over past 24 rounds:

1. Henrik Norlander (+1.33)
2. Sami Valimaki (+1.00)
3. Rico Hoey (+0.94)
4. John Pak (+0.92)
5. Scottie Scheffler (0.81)

Strokes-gained off the tee

Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.

Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. This year, the rough will be up a bit more than in years past. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage. Last year, Pendrith ranked sixth off the tee for the week. 

Strokes-gained off the tee over past 24 rounds:

1. Isaiah Salinda (+0.77)
2. Rico Hoey (+0.76)
3. Alex Smalley (+0.67)
4. Christo Lamprecht (+0.67)
5. Kevin Yu (+0.61)

Birdie or better percentage

There aren’t many hazards on the course and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for most players. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.

Birdie or better percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Danny Walker (25.7%)
2. Matthias Schmid (25.5%)
3. Niklas Norgaard (25.5%)
4. Jake Knapp (25.3%)
5. Chesson Hadley (25.1%)

Strokes-gained putting on bentgrass

Many golfers on Tour have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer bentgrass to other surfaces.

Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.

Strokes-gained putting (Bentgrass) over past 36 rounds:

1. Brian Campbell (+1.22)
2. Matt McCarty (+0.85)
3. Harry Hall (+0.82)
4. Vince Whaley (+0.72)
5. S.H. Kim (+0.64)

Strokes-gained total in Texas

This statistic will highlight players who have excelled in the state of Texas. 

Strokes-gained total in Texas over past 36 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.72)
2. Jordan Spieth (+1.64)
3. Sam Burns (+1.56)
4. Matt Kuchar (+1.40)
5. Nick Dunlap (+1.28)

Course History

This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past four seasons.

Course history over past 16 rounds:

1. Byeong Hun An (+2.13)
2. Jordan Spieth (+2.09)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+1.59)
4. Stephan Jaeger (+1.43)
5. S.H. Kim (+1.38)

Comparable Course Rankings

This season, I am going to generate a rankings list of the best players cumulatively at the comparable courses. For TPC Craig Ranch, I am using TPC Scottsdale, Vidanta Vallarta, Caves Valley, Medinah, Summit Club, Detroit GC, TPC Deere Run, El Cardonal Diamante and TPC Twin Cities.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Taylor Moore
3. Brian Campbell
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Sungjae Im
6. Cameron Davis
7. Ben Griffin
8. Jhonattan Vegas
9. Stephan Jaeger
10. Kurt Kitayama

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Model Rankings

Below, I have compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed: strokes-gained approach (24%), strokes-gained off the tee (20%), birdie or better percentage (14%), strokes-gained in Texas (10%), course history (10%), strokes-gained putting on bentgrass (14%) and comparable courses (8%). 

1. Rico Hoey
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Taylor Pendrith
4. Ben Griffin
5. Jake Knapp
6. Emiliano Grillo
7. Kevin Yu
8. Ryo Hisatsune
9. Taylor Moore
10. Harry Hall

2025 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks

Byeong Hun An +2500 (DraftKings)

After struggling with his irons early in the season, Byeong Hun An is starting to fire on all cylinders and appears to be in good form heading into the week. While the results haven’t jumped off the page in terms of results, the South Korean has gained strokes off the tee, on approach and around the green in three consecutive starts. 

TPC Craig Ranch is a great course for An to display his skill set. In his two trips to the course, he finished T14 and T4. Craig Ranch is an easy course but it’s also very long. Over his past 24 rounds, An ranks 13th in strokes-gained off the tee. 

An has yet to win on the PGA Tour but his win on the DP World Tour at the Genesis Championship should provide a confidence boost if he were to get into contention this season. The 33-year-old remains one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour without a win. 

Stephan Jaeger +5000 (DraftKings)

Stephan Jaeger was the player who I believed offered the most value when odds were released this week. Jaeger has excelled on easier courses on the PGA Tour and also has the length off the tee to handle the length of TPC Craig Ranch. 

In Jaeger’s last trip to Texas he finished T11 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, a tournament he had won. In his two starts since he’s been unspectacular, but Augusta National and Harbour Town aren’t necessarily courses I’d expect the German to perform well on. Despite the average results (T52 at the Masters and T32 at the RBC Heritage), he continued to strike the ball well. The 35-year-old has now gained strokes on approach in five consecutive events. 

In his last two trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Jaeger finished T11 and T20. Over his last 24 rounds, he’s 8th in strokes-gained approach and 14th in birdie or better percentage. This past fall, Jaeger finished 2nd at Black Desert, which is another Tom Weiskopf design. 

Ryo Hisatsune +7000 (DraftKings)

Ryo Hisatsune is a player who I’m pretty high on overall and is coming into this week playing some incredibly consistent golf. In his past four starts, Hisatsune has finished in the top 20 three times, including a T4 at the Valspar Championship and T5 at the Valero Texas Open. Over his past 24 rounds, the 22-year-old ranks 15th in the field in strokes-gained approach. 

Over the first four years of the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch, Asian players have performed exceptionally well, with three, including Japan’s Taiga Semikawa (T9), finishing in the top nine last year. Hisatsune finished T13 in his only start at the course.

Hisatsune has already proven he can win in a relatively strong field on the DP World Tour. He won the Cazoo Open De France in 2023 at just 20 years old. If he gets in the mix this week in Texas, he won’t be intimidated by the moment. 

Alejandro Tosti +10000 (DraftKings)

Alejandro Tosti has been playing spectacular golf for the past month. In his last three starts, the Argentine has finished T5 at the Houston Open, T12 at the Valero Texas Open and T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. In addition to his incredible form, the fact that Tosti has played so well in the state of Texas makes him a target this week. 

Over his past 36 rounds, Tosti ranks eighth in strokes-gained total in the state of Texas. His ability to hit the ball long and straight is a significant advantage at TPC Craig Ranch. Over his past 50 rounds, the 28-year-old ranks third in the field in strokes-gained off the tee and sixth in the field in driving distance. 

Tosti is almost always great with the driver, but he’s paired that with strong approach play recently. If he can make a few putts this week, he has the ball striking ability to keep up with just about anyone in the field. 

Sami Valimaki +12000 (DraftKings)

Sami Valimaki is one of the hottest golfers in the field. Over his past 24 rounds, he ranks second in the field in strokes-gained approach. The Fin has shown he loves Texas golf this season and has finishes of fourth at the Houston Open and T12 at the Valero Texas Open. 

In Houston, Valimaki was the best iron player in the field, gaining more than eight strokes on approach to the field. What’s perhaps as impressive is the fact that the 26-year-old had a strong performance in a signature field at Harbour Town, which is a course that shouldn’t be a great fit for his skill set. 

Valimaki is new to the PGA Tour but he does have a win on the DP World Tour. He won the 2020 Oman Open as well at the 2023 Qatar Masters, demonstrating some resilience down the stretch in professional events. 

Davis Riley +16000 (DraftKings)

After a slow start to 2025, Davis Riley has been scorching hot with his irons for the past month. The former Alabama standout registered top-10 finishes at both the Valspar Championship and the Puerto Rico Open, but more impressively, he finished T21 at the Masters. At Augusta National, Riley ranked 8th in the field in strokes-gained approach trailing only a handful of established stars. 

Riley has already won in Texas at the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge and on the Korn Ferry Tour at the 2020 TPC San Antonio Championship and is extremely comfortable playing in the state. He has shown an affinity for TPC Craig Ranch, finishing T9 in 2022.

Riley is a player who, despite inconsistency on the PGA Tour, has a strong pedigree. As an amateur, he became only the third player to go to the finals of the U.S. Junior Amateur twice, joining Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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