2025 Genesis Scottish Open Betting Models, Picks: Tee-to-Green Play Pivotal at Renaissance Club

The lead-in event to the British Open has delivered great finishes and stern tests, and our expert is looking at players who can handle whatever Scotland throws at them.

Tommy Fleetwood is well in form for the Scottish Open. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Genesis Scottish Open becoming the warm-up for the British Open has become one of my favorite times in golf. The Renaissance Club has consistently delivered phenomenal tournaments and finishes, along with a stern test of the entire golf game. Tee-to-green play, navigating the wind, and not getting lost on the massive green complexes are all important factors that will come into play for the eventual champion.

The Renaissance Club is a par-70 course measuring 7,237 yards and designed by Tom Doak. It has hosted the Scottish Open since 2019, so we now have several years of history at this venue for this tournament. We’ve also seen a variety of different types of players emerge as champions over that span, with Robert MacIntyre, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Min Woo Lee, Aaron Rai and Bernd Wiesberger hoisting the trophy here. The hybrid links style of the course makes things tricky, as can the always-unpredictable Scottish wind. It also, as mentioned, features massive, undulating greens which have a slow speed that can prove challenging for players. 

This is a complete test and an extremely fun ramp-up to the final major of the year. But what are we valuing this week at the Renaissance Club in our model? Time to dive into the numbers and see which players stand out enough to earn some investment from us this week. 

Key Stats for the Renaissance Club

Strokes-gained ball-striking over the last 24 rounds

Especially with how massive and conniving the greens at the Renaissance Club can be, the demand for ball-striking is at a high this week. That means being decently long off the tee but also having the approach play dialed in. So we’re measuring the pure ball-strikers of late in this loaded field. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
2. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (1.87)
3. Daniel Berger (1.35)
4. Sepp Straka (1.28)
5. Chris Gotterup (1.23)

Strokes-gained tee-to-green in moderately windy conditions in the last year

While the wind may not be diabolical (and actually quite tame at points), this is hybrid links golf, which can absolutely play a factor if the ball starts getting blown all over the place. Naturally, it only makes sense to see which players have navigated the tee-to-green test the best over the last year in 10-to-17 mph winds. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.08)
2. Tommy Fleetwood (1.71)
3. Andrew Novak (1.37)
4. Alex Smalley (1.35)
5. Xander Schauffele (1.14)

Strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds

At the end of the day, I’m always going to fall back on approach play. This week specifically, though, the rough penalty isn’t too severe, which means that being able to stick it in scoring positions on the green could be even more important to separate from the rest of the field. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.21)
2. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (1.14)
3. Adrien Saddier (0.93)
4. Sepp Straka (0.81)
5. Sam Bairstow (0.78)

Par-4 birdie-or-better percentage over the last 24 rounds

One of the unique tests at this venue is that the ability to score on the par-4s is severely hindered simply by the nature of the large greens, the conditions and the undulations. Thus, being able to separate by finding under-par scores on these holes, especially on a par-70, is paramount. 

1. Adrien Saddier (27.4%)
2. Harry Hall (22.6%)
3. Sam Burns (22.4%)
4. Justin Thomas (22.2%)
5. Sam Bairstow (22.2%)

Scottish Open model rankings for the Renaissance Club

We have to look at a unique picture this week to try and identify the best options at the Renaissance Club. For our Scottish Open model, we have strokes-gained ball-striking over the last 24 round (15%), strokes-gained tee-to-green in moderately windy conditions over the last year (15%), strokes-gained approach in the last 24 rounds (15%), par-4 birdie-or-better percentage over the last 24 rounds (10%), strokes-gained putting in difficult 3-putt-avoidance conditions in the last year (10%), strokes-gained total at Renaissance Club, Royal St. Georges and St. Andrews in the last three years (10%), driving distance the last 24 rounds (7.5%), proximity from 150-200 yards in the last 24 rounds (7.5%), par-5 scoring average over the last 50 rounds (5%), and strokes-gained around the green in the last 24 rounds (5%). Not shockingly, Scottie Scheffler comes out on top of the model, but let’s see how the rest of the top 10 shakes out. 

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Corey Conners
4. Ryan Fox
5. Viktor Hovland
6. Rory McIlroy
7. Tommy Fleetwood
8. Nick Taylor
9. Robert MacIntyre
10. Sam Burns

2025 Scottish Open picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+2200, DraftKings)

At the risk of being one of the most square picks of the week, it’s hard not to love where Tommy Fleetwood sits coming into the week. Outside of missing the cut at the U.S. Open with an uncharacteristically bad driving week, he’s finished T16 or better in the other three of his last four starts, including the heartbreaking runner-up at Travelers and a T4 at the Charles Schwab. 

Even while losing strokes ball-striking in two rounds at Oakmont, Fleetwood has gained 1.03 strokes per round over his last 12, ranks 17th in strokes-gained tee to green in moderate winds over the last year, and has the short game working around the greens right now. Not to mention, he’s a plus scorer on par-4s and has top-3 history in this field at the Renaissance Club and recent Open Championship venues as comps. That’s buoyed by top-6 finishes at the Scottish Open in 2023 and 2022, not to mention a runner-up showing in 2020. 

Plus, let’s not discount the fact that Fleetwood has won in Europe plenty of times, even if that infamously has not translated on U.S. soil. But with his recent form, I still think he’s playing well enough to win this week, especially navigating a combo of windy and benign conditions. 

Corey Conners (+6000, Bet365)

Perhaps the only two things that would deter me from being on Corey Conners this week would be his poor around-the-green play and his lack of driving distance. Make no mistake, that matters, but the rest of the numbers point to the Canadian being quite a factor this week at the Scottish Open, particularly with how his ball-striking numbers match up and his sneaky quality history in this event and similar ones. 

Conners has finished T19 and T10 at the Renaissance Club in the past two years and has three top-30 finishes at the Open in the past four starts. More importantly, he’s 13th in strokes-gained ball striking over the last 24 rounds (18th in strokes-gained approach as well), while also quietly being second-best in strokes-gained tee to green in moderate winds over the past year. He’s also been a positive putter in similar conditions and top 40 in par-4 birdie-or-better rate. Those numbers all stack up quite nicely for his fit this week. 

While Conners withdrew from the U.S. Open and hasn’t played since, I think he should be ready to rock this week again. The form has been good enough for me when he was healthy to pretty quickly take a swing at 60-1 odds. 

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+9000, FanDuel)

Because we don’t see him often on the PGA Tour, we might be overlooking what Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is capable of. He was T12 at the U.S. Open and then followed that up with a T14 at the BMW International Open last week. Furthermore, the limited data that we have on the 26-year-old from Denmark suggests that his Scottish Open debut could set up quite nicely for him. 

Neergaard-Petersen ranks seventh in strokes-gained ball striking, fifth in strokes-gained approach and ninth in strokes-gained around the green over his last 24 rounds. That has sustained in the wind over the last year as well, ranking 11th in this field in strokes-gained tee to green in that capacity. While he’s not a long driver, that may actually play to one of his strengths. He’s struggled with proximity from 150-200, but is eighth in the field in proximity from 200+ yards. 

It’s a longshot, without question, but the ball-striking ability combined with the setup matched with his game gives the Dane a real chance to make some noise this week that shouldn’t go overlooked. 

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