2025 John Deere Classic Betting Models, Picks: Long Shots Alive at TPC Deere Run

Our expert isn’t targeting anyone with lower than 50-1 odds at this week’s John Deere Classic.

Andrew Putnam has our expert's attention this week. / Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

If you love the low scores that we saw at the Rocket Classic, then the PGA Tour has another treat for you as it’s now onto the 2025 John Deere Classic. Last week’s winner Aldrich Potgieter is in the field once again, now with much shorter odds, but the fit this week is a bit different than it was in Detroit, even if there are some similarities between TPC Deere Run this week and Detroit GC last week. 

TPC Deere Run, which was established in 2000, is a 7,258-yard par-71 course settled in nondescript but beautiful Silvis, Ill. The course, which was designed by former PGA Tour winner D.A. Weibring, has given up some low, low scores historically, and last year offered multiple records. Davis Thompson set the John Deere Classic scoring record at 28 under for the week, but it was also an event in which Hayden Springer tied the course record (with Paul Goydos) by firing off a 59. All that is to say, with the right combination of ball striking, accuracy and the ability to make birdies, this tournament could be anyone’s to take home a victory. 

Sports Illustrated’s Free Golf Newsletters. dark. Sign Up Now. SI Golf Newsletters

Don’t take my word for it, though. Let’s dive into the numbers and our betting models for the 2025 John Deere Classic before we get a good look at the right guys, and potential long shots, to target this week at TPC Deere Run. 

Key Stats for TPC Deere Run

Strokes-gained total at TPC Deere Run and comparable courses for the last five years

TPC Deere Run is a relatively easy course that favors good drives but also rewards accuracy and iron play, as well as low scoring. So we looked at the history of the field at Deere Run, TPC River Highlands, Sedgefield, TPC Twin Cities and Detroit Golf Club to try and get a good mix of that. 

1. Sungjae Im (1.50)
2. Kevin Kisner (1.35)
3. Tom Kim (1.28)
4. Davis Thompson (1.19)
5. Eric Cole (1.19)

Strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds

Again, the test before these players in Silvis isn’t exactly difficult to figure out. And so much of it comes back to approach play. Just look at the last three winners—Thompson, Straka, Poston—and you can see that quite clearly. Recent ball-striking numbers coming into the event matter quite a bit this week.

1. Emiliano Grillo (1.05)
2. Ben Griffin (0.77)
3. Victor Perez (0.67)
4. Ryan Gerard (0.63)
5. Kevin Roy (0.60)

Proximity from 100-150 yards on approach over the last 24 rounds

Besides the par-5s, we’re looking at a course that is quite short overall, and for a par-71. Thus, we have to take a look at a more specific area of the ball-striking and how close these guys are hitting it with their wedges.

1. Lucas Glover (21.0 feet)
2. Chris Kirk (21.4)
3. Emiliano Grillo (21.5)
4. Denny McCarthy (21.5)
5. Greyson Sigg (21.6

Par-5 birdie-or-better percentage at TPC Deere Run, TPC Scottsdale and Quail Hollow over the last five years

This might seem like digging too far into the weeds, but one of the odd traits for a shorter course is that all three of the par-5s measure over 560 yards. That led me to Deere Run, Scottsdale and Quail Hollow as courses that share that trait, and to look at which players have fared the best at taking advantage of these longer par-5s. 

1. Joe Highsmith (75.0%)
2. Davis Thompson (71.2%)
3. Ryan Gerard (60.0%)
4. Keith Mitchell (59.3%)
5. Joseph Bramlett (58.3%)

John Deere Classic model rankings for TPC Deere Run

We’re covering a ton of ground for our model this week with strokes-gained total at TPC Deere Run and comparable courses over the last five years (20%), strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (20%), proximity from 100-150 yards over the last 24 rounds (10%), par-5 birdie-or-better percentage at Deere Run, Scottsdale and Quail Hollow in the last 5 years (10%), strokes-gained total in easy scoring conditions in the last 36 rounds (10%), proximity from 50-100 yards in the last 24 rounds (5%), strokes-gained putting on bentgrass in the last 36 rounds (5%), 3-putt avoidance on bentgrass in the last 36 rounds (5%), birdie-or-better percentage over the last 24 rounds (5%), strokes-gained around the green in the last 24 rounds (5%) and good drive percentage over the last 24 rounds (5%). Here’s how that model shakes out.

1. Ben Griffin
2. Mark Hubbard
3. Davis Thompson
4. Andrew Putnam
5. Keith Mitchell
6. Emiliano Grillo
7. Eric Cole
8. Lucas Glover
9. Sami Valimaki
10. Luke Clanton

2025 John Deere Classic picks

Mark Hubbard (+5000, DraftKings)

Look, y’all—this is the John Deere Classic. This is the exact type of event where taking one of the clear favorites (though I do like Ben Griffin) is a fool’s errand. So the lowest odds we’re taking this week belong to Mark Hubbard. A T13 last week in Detroit was a nice bounce-back for Hubbard after a missed cut at the U.S. Open bookended a run of three straight finishes outside the top 25. 

Prior to that, however, Hubbard finished T7 at Myrtle Beach, T5 at the CJ Cup and T12 at Corales Puntacana. What stood out more so in Detroit was the ball striking, which is when he’s at his best. He gained 1.35 strokes with ball striking alone, but also picked up more than 0.8 strokes per round with his short game. This looks like someone whose game might be coalescing at the right time. 

Having finished T32, T6 and T13 at the John Deere Classic over the last three years, this is a spot that suits Hubbard and I love the signs coming off of last week that he might just be able to get it done in Silvis. 

Kevin Roy (+6500, Caesars)

Kevin Roy has been making some noise over his past two starts, particularly with how enticingly he’s been striking the ball. Last week at the Rocket Classic, Roy finished T8 while gaining 2.32 strokes per round with his ball-striking. In his previous start at the RBC Canadian Open, he gained 1.81 strokes ball striking per round en route to finishing T18. 

On the whole, Roy is sixth in the John Deere Classic field in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds while also ranking top 45 in proximity from both 100-150 and 50-100 yards. Furthermore, he has the advantage off the tee, especially of late, of being dialed in with accuracy while being above-average in distance. When you combine that with his recent approach numbers, that looks like a dangerous factor. But what stands out most with that is, while he’s consistently lost strokes with his short game throughout the season, he’s gained 0.76 strokes putting per round across eight rounds on bentgrass over the last six months. 

Roy certainly isn’t the biggest name—nor can I say the last name without thinking about Tin Cup—in the field this week at TPC Deere Run, but there are plenty of signs he could find himself fighting for a victory.

Andrew Putnam (+7500, FanDuel)

If you look at the raw numbers off the tee for Andrew Putnam, you might be scared away. However, his strokes-gained off-the-tee output is severely penalized by a lack of distance. What he lacks there, though, he makes up for in accuracy, which can play on the tree-lined fairways of TPC Deere Run, and is evidenced by ranking fifth in the field in good drive percentage over the last 24 rounds. 

Putnam continues to check boxes beyond that as well. He might only be 33rd in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds, but that comes while being 16th in proximity from 100-150 yards. Furthermore, he’s 28th in strokes-gained putting over the last 36 rounds on bentgrass, 25th in birdie-or-better percentage and second in strokes-gained around the green. 

While there might be some concern about how low Putnam can go if we get into something like last year when Thompson won at 28 under, the game is set up nicely for him to contend, especially entering the week off of back-to-back top-eight finishes. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. ​​If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.