2025 Masters Betting Models, Props, Picks: Handicapping the Season’s First Major

The best of the best will face off once again at Augusta National for the Masters.

A field of 95 players will contest the 2024 Masters. / Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Network

It’s been more than nine months since we saw Xander Schauffele prevail at Royal Troon for his second major championship of 2024. After yet another offseason filled with questions regarding the future of the professional game, the golf world is once again desperate to see the best players from both the PGA Tour and LIV Golf compete against each other for a prize no amount of money can buy: a major title. 

Augusta National is now a 7,555-yard par-72 with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course’s primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds and topography, which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.

Previous Winners at the Masters 

• 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-11)
• 2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
• 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
• 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
• 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
• 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
• 2016: Danny Willett (-5)
• 2015: Jordan Spieth (-18)
• 2014: Bubba Watson (-8)
• 2013: Adam Scott (-9)
• 2012: Bubba Watson (-10)
• 2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14)
• 2010: Phil Mickelson (-16)

Key Stats For Augusta National

Let’s take a look at the most important metrics at Augusta National and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.

Strokes-gained approach

Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and runoff areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.

Last year, Scottie Scheffler ranked 14th in the field in strokes-gained approach. Overall, five of the past eight winners at Augusta have ranked in the top 6 in the category. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.

Strokes-gained approach per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Collin Morikawa (+1.06)
2. J.J. Spaun (+1.05)
3. Sepp Straka (+1.03)
4. Shane Lowry (+0.95)
5. Xander Schauffele (+0.91)

Course History

More so than any other course in the world, familiarity with Augusta National is crucial. Only one player since the first two Masters has won on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 18 golfers who have multiple green jackets, with the latest being Scottie Scheffler after winning for the second time last year.

Strokes-gained per round at Augusta National in past 36 rounds (minimum eight rounds):

1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.69)
2. Will Zalatoris (+2.55)
3. Jordan Spieth (+1.97)
4. Jon Rahm (+1.94)
5. Rory McIlroy (+1.87)

Par-4 scoring average

Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two, par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par-4s will be able to gain ground on the field.

Par-4 scoring average over 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (3.91)
2. Justin Thomas (3.91)
3. Daniel Berger (3.93)
4. Wyndham Clark (3.94)
5. Michael Kim (3.94)

Strokes-gained around the green

Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The runoff areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.

The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.

Strokes-gained around the green over past 24 rounds:

1. Cameron Smith (+16.2) 
2. Patrick Reed (+15.2)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+13.9)
4. Tyrrell Hatton (+13.8) 
5. Min Woo Lee (+13.4)

Strokes-gained putting on fast bentgrass greens

The greens at Augusta National are among the fastest in the country. Three-putting is fairly common at Augusta and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.

Strokes-gained putting on fast bentgrass greens over past 24 rounds:

1. Justin Rose (+1.34)
2. Min Woo Lee (+0.99)
3. Denny McCarthy (+0.94) 
4. Thomas Detry (+0.88)
5. Cameron Smith (+0.87)

Driving distance

While being one of the longest hitters in the field isn’t an absolute requirement at Augusta National, distance is a serious factor especially if the conditions are soft. 

Driving distance over past 36 rounds:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (310.0)
2. Ludvig Åberg (307.4)
3. Wyndham Clark (306.1) 
4. Rory McIlroy (305.8)
5. Min Woo Lee (305.2)

Comparable course rankings

This season, I am going to generate a rankings list of the best players cumulatively at the comparable courses. For Augusta National, I am using Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village, Torrey Pines (South), CC of Jackson, Riviera, Firestone, Plantation at Kapalua, Bay Hill, Pinehurst No. 2 and Memorial Park. 

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Jon Rahm
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Max Homa
7. Ludvig Åberg
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Dustin Johnson

Statistical Model

Below, I have reported overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are strokes-gained approach (25%), course history (14%), par-4 scoring average (14%), strokes-gained putting on fast bentgrass (14%), strokes-gained around the green (14%), driving distance (10%) and comparable courses (9%). 

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Will Zalatoris
4. Shane Lowry
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Rory McIlroy
7. Justin Thomas 
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Russell Henley
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Robert MacIntyre
12. Sepp Straka
13. Viktor Hovland
14. Keegan Bradley
15. Min Woo Lee
16. Patrick Cantlay
17. Justin Rose
18. Jon Rahm
19. Daniel Berger
20. Stephan Jaeger

Last week's picks results for the Valero Texas Open:

Jordan Spieth (25-1): T12
Keegan Bradley (28-1): T47
Si Woo Kim (35-1): MC
Bud Cauley (50-1): T5
Charley Hoffman (80-1): MC
Mac Meissner (120-1): T52

2025 Masters Picks

Collin Morikawa +1800 (DraftKings)

Collin Morikawa has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour in 2025. Scottie Scheffler has looked great at times, but I don’t believe is playing at the level he was coming into the Masters last year. Rory McIlroy, who is having a fantastic year, has demons at Augusta National that he may never be able to overcome. Morikawa may represent the PGA Tour who is best equipped to win a green jacket this season. 

Over his past 24 rounds, Morikawa leads the field in strokes-gained approach. In five starts this season, the two-time major winner’s worst finish has been T17. He finished runner-up at both the Sentry and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

Morikawa has a strong history at Augusta National without having won there yet. He has finished in the top 10 in his last three trips to the course including a T3 in 2024, his best finish at the Masters. 

With a win this week, Morikawa would earn his third major championship trophy and leave himself only one shy of a career grand slam. 

Justin Thomas +2500 (DraftKings)

It's hard to end a long winless streak with a major, but if anyone knows how it's Justin Thomas. When he won the 2022 PGA Championship, it had been 14 months since his last victory (2021 Players). Although this gap is a bit bigger, I believe the two-time major winner has found his form.

This season, Thomas has finished inside the top 10 in four of his eight starts. In his most recent start at the Valspar Championship, he finished runner-up and played incredibly well for 15 holes on Sunday for the first time in recent memory before stumbling in the snake pit. Despite the tough loss, Thomas seemed to walk away from that event extremely confident.

“I’ll take a lot of good," he said late Sunday at Innisbrook. "Way, way more good than bad. I mean, today was awesome. I felt so comfortable. ... I’m very, very proud of myself.”

The 31-year-old has had an incredible resurgence with the putter this year. Over the past few years, the inability to make putts has been what’s held him back, but in 2025, he’s gained strokes putting in six of his eight starts, including his best performance of the season at the Valspar, where he gained 6.72 strokes on the field.

It’s been a long time coming for Thomas, but he's still the caliber of player that can beat the best of the best when he's clicking on all cylinders.

As he got ready to leave Innisbrook, Thomas said, “It sucks not winning when you're that close and have a great chance, but I just hopefully put myself in the same position in two weeks at Augusta and finish it off better.”

This week, he’ll have the opportunity to do just that.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (DraftKings)

Joaquin Niemann’s relative lack of success in major championships has been well documented. The Chileans best finish in a major was at the 2023 Masters, where he finished T16. He had another decent trip down Magnolia Lane in 2024, where he finished T22. While that’s not quite up to the standard of one of the best players in the world, it’s certainly an indication that there is something about Augusta National that suits his eye.

While speaking with Sports Illustrated, Niemann shared that he believes his best chance to win a major was at the Masters. 

“Yeah, I feel like it’s my best chance,” he says. “If I play good golf, it will be any of those four that I might have a good chance. But if you look at all the four majors, [the Masters] is a tournament with a lesser number of players. It’s a smaller field. I’ve been there a few years. I feel like I can really play well there if my game is there.”

Niemann is one of the longest players in the field, which is always an asset at Augusta. With softer conditions potentially in the works for the tournament, Niemann’s lower ball flight, which has been an issue at times around Augusta, will be less of a detriment. 

Since the start of 2024, Niemann has six worldwide wins, which is the most of any player in the world with the exception of Scottie Scheffler. While the lack of major success has been part of the story throughout the early part of his career, the 26-year-old is far too talented to not flip the script in the immediate future. 

Sergio Garcia +8000 ( BetMGM)

Sergio Garcia is playing some of the best golf of his career. As a 46-year-old who has a hall-of-fame resume, that’s certainly saying something. 

Garcia seems to have found his groove on LIV and mentoring young players has brought out the best in the mental side of his game. In his past four starts, the Spaniard has a win, a runner-up and a third place finish. Last week at Doral, Garcia gained 7.8 strokes on approach in three rounds.

Last month, the Spaniard won LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that has produced a great deal of Masters winners, including Gary Player, Ian Woosnam, Bernhard Langer and José María Olazábal. Garcia has been an elite ball striker this year on LIV and has combined the tee to green excellence with a much improved putting season. He is still one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet and is hitting the ball as long and as straight as he did in the prime of his career.

In 2024, Garcia finished third in the individual standings, behind only Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann. He won at Valderrama and finished runner-up at both Mayakoba and Miami where he lost in a playoff. 

Experience at Augusta National is important, and although it’s been a struggle for Garcia since his Masters win in 2017, he obviously knows what it takes to get it done on the golf course. 

With a win, Garcia would join José María Olazábal and Seve Ballesteros as Spaniards with multiple Masters. 

Dustin Johnson +10000 (DraftKings)

Dustin Johnson came into 2025 fully aware of the rumblings that his days as one of the best players in the world was in the rearview mirror. After a sluggish start to the season, the former Masters champion has turned it on of late.

In the final round of the Hong Kong Open, Johnson fired a final-round 64 on a tough golf course, which sparked a hot run that included a 36-hole lead the following week in Singapore and another 36-hole lead last week at LIV Miami. The 40-year-old has played incredibly well on some long and difficult golf courses, proving he still has what it takes to compete at the highest level. 

Over his past 36 rounds at Augusta National, Johnson ranks ninth in strokes-gained total. At this stage of his career, the future hall-of-famer has focused his preparation around getting in peak form at the right time to contend in major championships. When asked to compare himself to the version of himself that won the Masters in 2020, Johnson expressed a great deal of confidence. 

“You know, the game is getting pretty close to that,” Johnson said. “Obviously, you know, it’s a really fine line to be in, you know, that good or you know just a little bit off, but yeah, I’ve got a lot of confidence in my game right now.”

Don’t be surprised to see Johnson make a run at another green jacket this week. 

Justin Rose +11000 (DraftKings)

At this stage of Justin Rose’s career, everything he does is geared towards preparing for major championships. At last year’s British Open, the Englishman found himself deep into contention at Royal Troon despite ultimately falling short. 

Rose loves Augusta National. He lost in a playoff to Sergio Garcia in 2017 and also has five additional top-10 finishes at the Masters in his career. Players on the back nine of their careers have proven it's possible to contend at Augusta well into their 40s, and Rose is still playing some great golf. 

This season, Rose has finished T3 at Pebble Beach and T8 at Bay Hill, showing he can still compete in elite fields on tough golf courses. 

The Englishman is a gamer who’s in decent form. If the favorites like Scheffler and McIlroy stumble, Rose is the type of player who can seize the opportunity to finally get his long coveted green jacket. 

Prop Bets

Sergio Garcia Top 20 +200 (Caesars)

Sergio Garcia Top Continental European +900 (FanDuel)

As explained above, Garcia is hitting the ball as well as he has in a decade. His floor feels extremely high this week. For the top Continental European pick, his biggest challengers will be Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm. Given what he's shown in 2025, I think he can beat those player, all of whom have considerable question marks coming into Augusta.

Phil Mickelson Top Senior -110 (FanDuel)

Phil Mickelson is having a resurgent season as he nears his 55th birthday. Not only has Mickelson finished third, T19 and sixth in his last three starts, he’s done so in an extremely sustainable way, gaining significant strokes on the field on approach in each of his starts. Last week at Doral, Mickelson gained 3.3 strokes on approach in the three rounds.

Mickelson has to beat Angel Cabrera, Mike Weir and Bernhard Langer. With his current form and history at Augusta National, this price seems more than reasonable.

Byeong Hun An Top Asian +500 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An has found some form, finishing in the top 20 on the leaderboard in two of his past three starts. He is long off the tee and has incredible hands around the green off tight lies, which makes him a great fit for Augusta National. An seemed to figure something out last year when he finished a career best T16 at the Masters.

With Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim and Sungjae Im all in questionable form coming into the Masters, this is a price worth taking a gamble on.

Rory McIlroy +140 over Scottie Scheffler

This may sound absurd considering Scheffler has won two of the last three Masters, but I believe the wrong player is favored in this matchup. Since his return from a hand injury, Scheffler has been good but not great. He's certainly capable of beating plenty of players with less than his “A” game, but I don't believe Rory McIlroy to be one of them.

For the first time in a decade, McIlroy is coming into the event with two wins on the season. He is the player to beat this week, no questions asked.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.