2025 Tour Championship Betting Models, Picks: Scottie Not Unbeatable at East Lake

Scottie Scheffler is a prohibitive favorite to win at East Lake, but our expert likes three players who could take him down at the Tour Championship.

Viktor Hovland won the Tour Championship in 2023 / John David Mercer-Imagn Images

No starting strokes this time, but we’ve reached East Lake Golf Club for the Tour Championship at last. The final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is upon us and heads back to the final stop of every season since 2004. But the changes in the format for the Tour Championship this year give us a level playing field at East Lake, one that could see someone other than Scottie Scheffler hoisting the trophy come Sunday afternoon. 

East Lake Golf Club, just outside of Atlanta, is a par-70 that measures 7,346 yards and has undergone several renovations over its more than 100 years, most famously with the 1913 redesign from Donald Ross, but notably with Rees Jones performing renovations in 1995 and 2008, and even Andrew Green doing some work as recent as 2023. The place is drenched with history, though, formerly the home club of the great Bobby Jones and having hosted the Tour Championship for more than 20 years now, in addition to playing host to the 1963 Ryder Cup and the 2001 U.S. Amateur. 

It’s a long, demanding test for a par-70 with diabolical rough, greens and looks for the players this week. Ball striking will be at a premium, but the history of players at East Lake itself plays a big factor. There are horses for this course, even with Xander Schauffele not making the top 30, and even Scheffler’s unreal play might ultimately not land him in the winner’s circle this week. But let’s dive into the numbers and the model to see who could unseat the World No. 1 in the FedEx Cup finale. 

Key Stats for East Lake

Strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds

At its most simple, East Lake’s biggest demand is the play from tee-to-green. Players almost have to be in the fairway consistently to score, and their approach play must be even better. So identifying who has thrived tee-to-green of late is a crucial component in the model this week. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (2.38)
2. Russell Henley (1.64)
3. Tommy Fleetwood (1.25)
4. J.J. Spaun (1.24)
5. Viktor Hovland (1.24)

Strokes-gained total at East Lake in the last 5 years

Course history at East Lake is impossible to ignore. There’s a reason we think about guys like Rory McIlroy and the aforementioned Schauffele at this place, because it simply suits their eye and the track record speaks for itself. These five players have been the best at this course over the last five years, though.

1. Justin Thomas (1.44)
2. Viktor Hovland (1.20)
3. Russell Henley (1.06)
4. Shane Lowry (0.87)
5. Rory McIlroy (0.85)

Strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds

While scrambling ability will be part of the model as well, giving yourself chances on the greens is the best path to the leaderboard at East Lake. So while tee-to-green play as a whole will be crucial, approach play in itself will be just as vital.

1. Scottie Scheffler (1.42)
2. Viktor Hovland (1.31)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (0.93)
4. Akshay Bhatia (0.92)
5. Collin Morikawa (0.83)

Par-4 scoring average over the last 24 rounds

The par-70 layout at East Lake highlights the need for players to find success on the litany of par-4s around the property. While there isn’t much separation among the 30 best players on the PGA Tour this season in this department, it’s a factor into how we identify the best targets this week. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (3.92)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (3.93)
3. Chris Gotterup (3.94)
4. Cameron Young (3.95)
5. Ben Griffin (3.95)
6. Sam Burns (3.95)

Tour Championship model rankings for East Lake

Frankly, this is one of the most fun but also simple models that we’ve had this year when it comes to figuring out who to target at East Lake. We start with strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds (15%), strokes-gained total at East Lake in the last 5 years (15%), strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (15%), and par-4 scoring average for the last 24 rounds (15%) with the heaviest weight in the model. We then have a lighter mix of good-drive percentage in the last 24 rounds (10%), proximity from 200+ yards in the last 36 rounds (10%), strokes-gained putting on Bermuda for the last 36 rounds (7.5%), bogey avoidance for the last 36 rounds (7.5%), and scrambling percentage over the last 36 rounds (5%) to round us out. Not surprisingly, Scheffler still tops our model, and here’s how the rest of the top 10 shakes out. 

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Russell Henley
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Collin Morikawa
7. Ludvig Åberg
8. Ben Griffin
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Akshay Bhatia

2025 Tour Championship picks

Russell Henley +2000 (FanDuel)

Russell Henley has quietly been thriving a bit under the radar over the past few months, not finishing worse than T17 in his last six outings since the Memorial, all of which were signature events, majors championships, or FedEx Cup playoff events. He’s been in the mix to some degree and his play overall gives some good feels heading into East Lake. 

After firing off a final-round 62 last year in the Tour Championship, Henley moved up to T4 on the leaderboard at East Lake and clearly gained some real comfort at a place that should suit him after a two well under-par rounds in 2023 were thwarted by over-par second and third rounds. Still, the recent history at East Lake is in his favor, while also ranking second in strokes-gained tee-to-green, sixth in strokes-gained approach and third in good-drive rate over the last 24 rounds. Even better, he’s top 6 in putting, bogey avoidance and scrambling in this field as well. 

Henley certainly isn’t the sexiest pick this week, but there’s a reason his odds are a bit short with no starting strokes. He has a game suited to this test and is playing well enough to take full advantage of exactly that. 

Viktor Hovland +3000 (FanDuel)

We finally got to see Viktor Hovland start to not waste some of his ball striking last week at the BMW Championship with a T7 finish. The approach play has been nothing short of elite for some time now, as evidenced by the fact that he’s second only to Scheffler in strokes-gained approach for the last 24 rounds. But what stands out is that his driving has been a bit suspect and his approach play and improvements to being average around the greens have him Top 5 in tee-to-green play as well. 

What stands out with that is that we saw him actually gain strokes with the driver at the BMW, which is only the second time we’ve seen that in his last five starts. He’s also gained with the putter in four consecutive starts now as well. When you combine that with his approach play, it’s hard not to be in on him, which is only furthered by his success at East Lake. He shot 19 under aside from starting strokes to win the Tour Championship in 2023,and still didn’t collapse in 2024 despite being in suspect form for most of last year. 

Hovland has been flashing signs of him breaking back out in bright lights for months now. It’d be fitting for him to make good on that at a place where he’s enjoyed this type of success. 

Hideki Matsuyama +4000 (FanDuel)

I’m not going to lie to you and tell you that Hideki Matsuyama has been some sort of maven at East Lake in recent years. The truth is honestly far from that as he’s not finishing better than T9 since 2018. At the same time, his game is trending in a manner that should give him a relative longshot at finding his way up the leaderboard this week, despite coming off a paltry week at the BMW with a T26 finish. 

Matsuyama checks a lot of boxes, ranking eighth in strokes-gained tee-to-green, third in strokes-gained approach and second in par-4 scoring average over his last 24 rounds, while also being third in proximity from 200+ yards. The big worry has been the driver, which has been a tad off-kilter of late, but his short game has been another thing working in his favor as well. 

If he’s able to not cripple himself with poor driving, Matsuyama has the rest of the game working more than well enough to contend this week. And frankly, given how these things often go with Hideki, would it not be fitting for him to follow up a poor showing nearly across the board at the BMW by winning at East Lake? That’s a narrative we’ve seen time and again with him, and the signs are there again this week.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. ​​If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.