2025 Truist Championship Betting Models, Picks: Strategy the Key at Philadelphia Cricket Club

PGA Tour fans and players will get to experience A.W. Tillinghast's Golden Age masterpiece this week.

Ludvig Åberg, pictured at last month's 2025 RBC Heritage, could rise to the occasion this week at the signature event. / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for the sixth signature event of the season as we get one week closer to the year’s second major championship.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players on the PGA Tour will head to Philadelphia Cricket Club to play the Truist Championship for what should be one of the best non-major tournaments of the year. 

The Philadelphia Cricket Club Wissahickon Course is a par-70 measuring 7,119 yards that features pure bentgrass greens that will play firm and fast. A.W. Tillinghast, who also designed Bethpage Black, Baltusrol, Ridgewood Country Club and Winged Foot, originally designed the course in 1922. The course was redesigned by Keith Foster in 2013 and is renowned for its classic Golden Age architecture and challenging layout. Other courses that Foster helped redesigned include Colonial Country Club, the Old White Course at the Greenbrier and Southern Hills Country Club. 

The Wissahickon Course annually lands on top-100 lists. There is penal fescue around the greens and bunkers and the most famous hole on the course is the par-5 7th hole called the “Great Hazard,” where 13 bunkers lie in the middle of the fairway. The bunkers on the course are deep and penal. This week, the course will be re-routed and the 7th will feature as the 18th for the tournament. 

The field is excellent this week with 72 golfers teeing it up without a cut. Scottie Scheffler is not in the field and Jason Day was a Tuesday WD, but the rest of the Tour's elite will be in Philadelphia.

Key Stats for Philadelphia Cricket Club

Strokes-gained approach

The green sizes at Philadelphia Cricket Club are a bit larger than Tour average, but they have diverse contouring. It will be important to be precise with approach shots this week to keep the ball on the right level of the green. 

Strokes-gained approach per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Sepp Straka (+28.4)
2. Collin Morikawa (+28.0)
3. Xander Schauffele (+25.9)
4. Shane Lowry (+25.1)
5. Rory McIlroy (+23.9)

Strokes-gained off the tee

The fairways at Philadelphia Cricket Club are wide but it will be important for players to be on the correct side of the fairway. Both distance and accuracy should be a factor this week. 

Strokes-gained off the tee per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+0.83)
2. Garrick Higgo (+0.75)
3. Corey Conners (+0.66)
4. Robert McIntyre (+0.61)
5. Ludvig Åberg (+0.61)

Strokes-gained putting on fast bentgrass

The defense of Philadelphia Cricket Club will be its firm and fast bentgrass greens. 

Strokes-gained putting on fast bentgrass per round over past 36 rounds:

1. Justin Rose (+1.33)
2. Ludvig Åberg (+1.19)
3. Max Greyserman (+1.19)
4. Sahith Theegala (+0.74)
5. Brian Campbell (+0.68)

Strokes-gained on Tillinghast designs

Philadelphia Cricket Club still has the classic features of the original Tillinghast design. With the PGA Tour and some major championship venues playing Tillinghast designs in recent years, this statistic will incorporate players who have played well at those courses. 

Strokes-gained per round on Tillinghast designs over past 50 rounds:

1. Will Zalatoris (+2.84)
2. Viktor Hovland (+2.34)
3. Sungjae Im (+1.84)
4. Adam Scott (+1.78)
5. Xander Schauffele (+1.74)

Three-putt avoidance

With the greens at Philadelphia Cricket Club being extremely tricky with tough pin placements expected, players who avoid three putts will have the advantage.

Three-putt avoidance over past 36 rounds:

1. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (1.8%)
2. Eric Cole (1.9%)
3. Sam Burns (2.0%)
4. Denny McCarthy (2.3%)
5. Thomas Detry (2.3%)

Proximity 100 to 150 yards

Players will most likely have plenty of short approach shots coming into the greens this week. With tricky greens, players must be precise with their wedges to get the ball close to the hole. 

Proximity 100 to 150 yards over past 50 rounds:

1. Russell Henley (14’ 9”)
2. Tom Hoge (15’ 6”)
3. Ludvig Åberg (15’ 7”)
4. Si Woo Kim (16’ 0”)
5. J.J. Spaun (16’ 0”)

Last week's picks results for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Byeong Hun An (25-1): T14
Stephan Jaeger (50-1): T56
Ryo Hitsatune (70-1): MC
Alejandro Tosti (100-1): T67
Davis Riley (160-1): T45

Truist Championship model Rankings

Below, I have compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed: strokes-gained approach (26%), strokes-gained off the tee (22%), strokes-gained on Tillinghast designs (10%), proximity 100 to 150 yards (14%), strokes-gained putting on fast bentgrass (14%), and three-putt avoidance (14%). 

1. Patrick Cantlay
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Keegan Bradley
4. Shane Lowry
5. Taylor Pendrith
6. Viktor Hovland 
7. Collin Morikawa
8. Erik Van Rooyen
9. Jordan Spieth
10. J.J. Spaun

2025 Truist Championship Picks

Ludvig Åberg +1800 (BetMGM)

Ludvig Åberg has been relatively quiet since his win at Torrey Pines earlier this season but has shown he’s a player who tends to perform at big events. In addition to winning the Genesis Invitational he finished T5 at the Sentry and seventh at the Masters. 

Over the past two seasons, no one has gained more strokes with the putter at Augusta National than Åberg. The Swede clearly has a preference for putting on fast greens and also seems to like bentgrass. 

Åbergis one of the best players in the world off the tee and ranks seventh in his past 24 rounds in strokes-gained off the tee. Philadelphia Cricket Club is a course where players who hit it long and straight should have a sizable advantage. 

The sky's the limit for Åberg. I expect the wins to start coming in bunches relatively soon for the 25-year-old. 

Patrick Cantlay +2200 (DraftKings)

The winless streak for Patrick Cantlay will have extended to 991 days by the time he tees off at Philadelphia Cricket Club but as we saw with Justin Thomas, for players of this caliber, all winless streaks eventually come to an end. 

When looking at the specifics of Philadelphia Cricket Club, it immediately stood out to me that this could be a perfect Cantlay golf course. Over his last 24 rounds, the former FedEx Cup champion ranks sixth in strokes-gained approach and 15th in strokes-gained off the tee. 

Cantlay has won individual events at six different golf courses in his PGA Tour career, and all six were on bentgrass greens: 2017 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (TPC Summerlin, bentgrass greens), 2019 Memorial Tournament (Muirfield Village, bentgrass greens), 2020 Zozo Championship (Sherwood Country Club, bentgrass greens), 2021 BMW Championship (Caves Valley, bentgrass greens), 2021 Tour Championship (East Lake, bentgrass greens) and the 2022 BMW Championship (Wilmington Country Club, bentgrass greens). His putting hasn’t been great this season, but when he does putt well, it’s usually on bentgrass. 

Cantlay has played well at Tillinghast designs (T8 at Ridgewood CC) and has success in this region with wins in Maryland and Delaware in stronger-field events. Wilmington Country Club is very close to Philadelphia Cricket Club.  Despite not winning, he continues to strike the ball beautifully. In his most recent start at Harbour Town, the 33-year-old ranked first in strokes-gained off the tee and 15th in strokes-gained approach. 

In the end, talent always wins. Cantlay is too talented not to get back in the winner’s circle in the near future. 

Hideki Matsuyama +3500 (FanDuel)

Hideki Matsuyama showed some signs of resurgent form at the Masters. The former champion gained 8.3 strokes on approach, which is the most he’s gained in the category since the Farmers Insurance Open. 

Matsuyama has had a lot of success in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions. He also finished fifth at the 2016 PGA Championship at Baltusrol, which is an A.W. Tillinghast design. 

The Japanese star has excelled this season with his wedges and ranks second in his last 50 rounds on approach shots from 100 to 150 yards. Hitting close approaches on the difficult multi-tiered greens will be a major key to success this week.

Historically, Matsuyama has preferred putting on bentgrass greens. He tore up a soft Augusta National and may have the opportunity to do so if the rain in the forecast arrives this week at Philadelphia Cricket Club. 

Matsuyama is a player who can spike with approach play. In fact, he ranks fifth in the field in percentage of tournaments where he’s gained more than four strokes on approach over his last 36 rounds. If he has a spike week in Philadelphia, he might add another big trophy to his growing collection. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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