At 90-1 Odds, Bet This Sleeper to Be the First-Round Leader at 2024 U.S. Open

Odds are up for first-round leader at the 2024 U.S. Open, and our expert is targeting a long shot.
Jun 7, 2024; Dublin, Ohio, USA; Alex Noren tees off on the 15th hole during the second round of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 7, 2024; Dublin, Ohio, USA; Alex Noren tees off on the 15th hole during the second round of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports / Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports

The opening tee shot at the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst is quickly approaching, so it's time to place some bets.

If you don't have the patience to wait all four rounds to see if your bet wins or if you want to make Thursday's round a little bit more exciting, let me introduce you to the "First Round Leader" bet. This bet is simply a wager on which golfer will be leading after the opening round.

With the unpredictability of the opening round, the odds are going to be slightly different from the odds to win the tournament. You'll be able to bet on the better golfers at longer odds and you'll also be able to bet on some dark horses at more favorable odds.

Let's take a look at the odds to be the first round leader at this week's U.S. Open and then I'll break down who I'm betting on.

2024 U.S. Open First Round Leader Odds

The top 10 odds the be the first round leader listed below are via BetMGM Sportsbook

  • Scottie Scheffler +1000
  • Rory McIlroy +2200
  • Xander Schauffele +2200
  • Collin Morikawa +2500
  • Bryson DeChambeau +2800
  • Viktor Hovland +2800
  • Ludvig Aberg +3000
  • Brooks Koepka +3300
  • Jon Rahm +3500
  • Cam Smith +4000

2024 U.S. Open First Round Leader Prediction

Alex Noren +9000

We're going to take a bit of a long shot to be the first round leader at this year's U.S. Open. Give me the Swede, Alex Noren, at 90-1 odds.

He has been arguably one of the most underrated golfers on the PGA Tour this season. When you look at the metric "Total Strokes Gained" it's the usual suspects at the top; Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy. Fourth in that stat is none other than Noren, coming in at +1.238 strokes gained on the field per round.

The 41-year old is also fifth in scoring average at 69.999.

Can he win the whole thing? Likely not. He doesn't have the firepower or the consistency over a four round tournament to hang with the top dogs. With that being said, his metrics are good enough that I'm willing to bet on him to come out on top of a one-round sample size.

It also helps that he enters this week ranking fourth in Round 1 scoring average at 68.29, behind only Scheffler (67.77), Morikawa (68.08), and Schauffele (68.08). The opening round has been Noren's biggest strength. It's has best round in terms of scoring average by 0.18 strokes with Round 3 being his second best at 68.33.

Let's sprinkle on Noren and hope he shows up in a big way on Thursday.

Pick: Alex Noren First Round Leader +9000


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Iain MacMillan

IAIN MACMILLAN

Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.