Skip to main content

Karma. It’s real.

Tony Finau knows this because of the many close calls in his career to date. The now three-time PGA Tour winner could have a few more if it were not for ruthless final-round play from his competitors. However, he built up good juju over time and last week he was the one who capitalized on the leader’s shortcomings to take home the 3M Open as the pre-tournament favorite.

As for the picks, Davis Riley disappointed and missed the cut and Chris Gotterup could not recover from his first round, but recorded a respectable T31. Nevertheless, it’s been all about the sleepers this year, and Callum Tarren came up big with a T7.

We continue our jockeying for the FedEx Cup playoffs this week at Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Similar to last week, this par-72, 7,370-yard Midwest layout will provide no resistance for the best players to go low. With the average winning score here being 22 under par, extra distance off the tee will be a focal point along with birdie average. Lucky for us, this week’s field is much more robust, so let's take a look at the odds.

According to SI Sportsbook, the favorite is last year’s FedEx Cup winner Patrick Cantlay at +1000. Just behind is last week’s 3M Open winner Tony Finau at +1200. Next up is elite ball striker Will Zalatoris at +1400, followed by runner-up machine Cameron Young at +2000. Closing out the notables is Wells Fargo champion Max Homa at +2200.

It’s amazing two non-winners are this high up on the odds board, but what’s more stunning is the play of both Zalatoris and Young during this year’s campaign. The latter has been especially impressive, so we’re going to take the added value in Cameron Young at +2000. Coming off yet another world-class display at the British Open, this just seems like the right time for Young to notch his first victory. Young has added three additional runner-up finishes this season along with a pair of T3s. Most importantly, Young ranks second in strokes gained: off-the-tee on the season and he’ll put those talents to very good use this week.

For a midrange pick, Denny McCarthy at +4000 seems like the right choice here. In three of his last four starts, he’s gone T5, T7 and T6, including the U.S. Open where he shot the lowest score over the final 36 holes. Unlike our other two selections, McCarthy does not excel as much off the tee, but he makes up for it being one of the best putters in the world. He ranks third on the season in strokes gained: putting and that allows him to also be in the top-15 in scoring average on Tour. His style of play may not jump off the page for this layout, but elite putting travels well to any course.

For a sleeper, we know we continue to hit this kid, but Chris Gotterup at +8000 has to be the play. Last week, the only thing that kept him out of contention was an opening-round 75. After a bogey-bogey start on Friday, he finished the final 52 holes at 10 under par. Because of just one bad round, we now get him at a very enticing value on a very similar test. Over his past 24 rounds, he’s been long off the tee while also ranking in the top 15 in par-5 scoring. Two key ingredients at Detroit Golf Club to continue his momentum as someone to really look out for in the coming years.

2021-22 picks scoreboard:

Events: 36
Winners: 5
Top 5s: 11
Top 10s: 7
Top 20s: 3

Here are some notable odds, according to SI Sportsbook:

Patrick Cantlay +1000
Tony Finau +1200
Will Zalatoris +1400
Cameron Young +2000
Max Homa +2200
Cameron Davis +3000
Adam Scott +3300
Davis Riley +3500
Keegan Bradley +3500
Kevin Kisner +3500
Webb Simpson +3500
Adam Hadwin +4000
Cameron Tringale +4000
Denny McCarthy +4000
Maverick McNealy +4000
Sahith Theegala +4000
Gary Woodland +4500
Mark Hubbard +4500
Chris Kirk +5000
Joohyung Kim +5000
Kevin Streelman +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Scott Stallings +5000
Si Woo Kim +5000
Cameron Champ +5500
Brendan Steele +6000
Jason Day +6000
Jhonattan Vegas +6000
Matt Kuchar +6000
Taylor Pendrith +6000
Troy Merritt +6600
Adam Svensson +7000
Alex Smalley +7000
Patrick Rodgers +7500
Ryan Palmer +7500
Wyndham Clark +7500
C.T. Pan +8000
Chris Gotterup +8000
Danny Willett +8000
Harris English +8000
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Nick Hardy +8000
Rickie Fowler +8000
Doug Ghim +9000
Greyson Sigg +9000
Joel Dahmen +9000
Luke List +9000
Mackenzie Hughes +9000
Austin Smotherman +10000
Callum Tarren +10000
Dylan Frittelli +10000
James Hahn +10000
Michael Gligic +10000
Stewart Cink +10000
Trey Mullinax +10000