2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Bay Hill Club
ORLANDO, Fla. — As I walk the grounds of the Bay Hill Club and Lodge this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I am reminded of a very special time in my life. I spent five great years in Orlando as a golf professional working across the lake at Isleworth Country Club. In those years, we would play the Champion (front nine) and Challenger (back nine) at Bay Hill often. Unless you have steered your own ball around these famous Central Florida holes, it is tough to appreciate why Dick Wilson’s design is one of the Top 5 most predictive courses on the PGA Tour.
The tournament has been contested at the downtown Orlando course since 1979. Arnold’s Palmer’s old home course is a par 72 stretching to an imposing 7,466 yards. Even though length doesn’t seem to bother most of the world’s best, this course does play to its yardage on the scorecard. A great example of this is on the par 3s. The collection of four holes average 217 yards in length with rock-hard greens surrounded by water or deep rough. With little room to bail out, par becomes a very valuable score.
Twenty-three of the top 25 in the OWGR (22 of the top 25 SIWGR) will face nearly 30% of their approach shots from over 200 yards. That’s almost 10% more than the Tour average. You feel it when you play the course from any set of tees. Bay Hill is a beast and really tests your long-iron game. The cutline has been under par only one time in the last 17 years and over the last five years, the average cut was 3 over par.
I can feel the firmness in the ground just walking around the practice range. The practice green is extremely firm as well. Orlando has been dry throughout the month of February and this week is not going to be any different. The temperatures are predicted in the low 90s for Thursday through Saturday and only a slight chance of rain on the weekend. You see a couple of ponds on the course, but what most fans don’t realize is that the Bay Hill community is surrounded by lakes.
These open-water areas allow for the wind to build up. Bay Hill is beyond difficult to play when the wind blows. Mr. Palmer loved it firm and fast, and the 2023 edition of this championship will not let him down. Players are already talking about the wind expected on Friday and Saturday. Many of the same men were here in 2020 when in the third round only one player broke par (Max Homa) due to breezy conditions.
I have even heard on the range some comparing this to a U.S. Open in March. Over the last five years, the average winning score was 10 under par. In that time, the winner’s pre-tournament odds averaged just +2700 (27-1). Apologies to the longshots, but Bay Hill has only had two in the last 10 years. Consider the designated status of 2023, $20 million purse, and our window of winners for that $3.6 million check gets even smaller. Although outright odds have been short in the previous three elevated contests, we can find an edge in this field on the placement and matchups card.
When you look at the path to victory for the last 10 winners it is easy to understand why approach play jumps out. Bay Hill was the hardest non-major course of 2022 and tests your long irons like no other venue on the PGA Tour. The average strokes-gained on approach for each over the last 10 years is over five (5.1). Iron play will allow you to contend, but this is what will differentiate you from the rest of the leaderboard or, even better, the elite of the world golf rankings:
- The winning players at Arnie's place can putt. In the last decade, they have gained an average of 6.3 shots against the field on the greens. That’s a full stroke more than they gain on approach. Scottie Scheffler grabbed the red cardigan last year with great lag putting. Bay Hill is one of the toughest courses to putt from over 10 feet. The winner this week will be a great approach putter.
- Competitors favor accuracy off the tee over distance. You love having both, but historically driving accuracy is above the Tour average this week and driving distance is below the weekly average. Does this mean power or length aren’t important? No. Power just comes into play with your long irons and playing from the rough instead.
- Bay Hill has 84 bunkers and 55 of them decorate the green complexes all over the course. Sand play cost Viktor Hovland the championship last year and will separate the field again. Don’t just consider bunker skill a necessity for saving par. Those four par 5s average a 38% birdie rate. Scoring can happen from the sand as well and attacking those par 5s in two is a must this week.
- Whether the wind shows up or not, the guys will miss greens this week. The average green size is 7,500 square feet and they will play even smaller due to the firmness. Factors such as bogey avoidance and around-the-green play will be the next most important winning differentiators behind putting. The mix of bermudagrass and rye overseed is thick and challenging surrounding the green surfaces.
Bay Hill’s two nines mirror one another as each starts with a sharp dogleg. They both wrap around a pond from right to left and then climb a straight uphill par 5, then head back down the hill with a positional par 4. Each side also has a brutal collection of par 3s. The second par 5 on each nine is very score-able and closing both sides are two holes that test your ability to finish off a great round. If you just look at the numbers, you don’t see it. Playing the golf course, you feel the repetition throughout the round.
This is why Bay Hill predicts players who will perform well here. Take Tiger Woods's eight wins for example. He was the best long iron player ever. That level of edge separates a champion. Combine his approach play with a great short game, opportunistic putting and you can see why he dominated here. I have found the players who love Bay Hill’s bermudagrass putting and have the power and accuracy to save themselves from bogey.
Chris Kirk took us to the winner’s circle last week. Walking the grounds at the King’s resort, I have a great feel for this field as well.
Win: Jason Day
The 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational winner is primed for another Bay Hill victory. Jason Day has finished ninth or better in his last three starts (Farmers, WM Phoenix Open, Genesis). Those courses are a few of the toughest on tour and great preparation here. Over the three tournaments he’s gained an average of 10.5 strokes gained-total per start. Ranked first in the field for strokes-gained putting and three-putt avoidance, Day will dominate on the greens. Jason’s a perfect fit for API with his high ball flight and world-class short game. Bet him on SI Sportsbook at +2800 and let’s collect like we did last week.
Last week's pick: Chris Kirk came in for our first outright winner of 2023 at a nice +2200 price.
Place: Sungjae Im
The most recent king of the Florida Swing is Sungjae Im. The favorite from last week now sits in the middle tier of this field. That’s the perfect spot for a top-20 place bet on Im at +130 on SI Sportsbook. Im’s iron game is elite in the 200-yard-plus category and why he’s always a threat on hard golf courses. In 2022, he improved around the green and leads this field in sand saves gained. Combine his excellent scrambling ability with a top-10 tee-to-green game and he’s primed for his fifth top 20 finish of 2023.
Last week's pick: Jhonattan Vegas finished T21 and cashed for us as low South American.
Showdown: Rickie Fowler over Aaron Wise
Believe it or not, Rickie Fowler is a factor again on the PGA TOUR. With three Top 20 finishes on difficult courses in his last three starts, I love him in this DraftKings matchup against Aaron Wise. Wise’s play of late has been off from T2G. He’s missed two of his last three cuts and last week at the Honda Classic he lost strokes against the field off the tee and on approach. Taking Rickie over Aaron at -130 is just a wise decision.
Last week's pick: Denny McCarthy opened with 75 to Billy Horschel's 65, and this one took the "L" by Friday evening.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Jon Rahm +600
Rory McIlroy +900
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Collin Morikawa +2000
Max Homa +2000
Will Zalatoris +2000
Justin Thomas +2200
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Tony Finau +2500
Viktor Hovland +2500
Cameron Young +2800
Jason Day +2800
Jordan Spieth +3300
Matt Fitzpatrick +3300
Sungjae Im +3300
Tyrrell Hatton +3300
Sam Burns +4500
Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional and founder of Read The Line, a leading golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour which will raise your betting acumen (and hopefully your bankroll). Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter.