2023 British Open: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Royal Liverpool
The 151st British Open will play completely different than St. Andrews did a year ago. Royal Liverpool is situated on the Irish Sea just south of Liverpool. The flat terrain is covered in fields of fescue and 84 bunkers. Playing to a par-71 and 7,383 yards, the latest edition of this major championship is a little different.
The last time the Open Championship came to Hoylake was 2014. Rory McIlroy was the Champion Golfer of the Year and the course scorecard read par-72. The par-5 10th hole has been converted to a par-4 and the 17th hole is completely new. The same challenge remains for the field of 156, keep the ball in play for 72 holes.
Royal Liverpool is marked by narrow fairway corridors and small putting surfaces. St. Andrews is the complete opposite in design. Wide fairways and huge greens helped lead Cam Smith to his amazing come-from-behind Sunday victory. Contenders in this edition will need to be very accurate off the tee. All 14 fairways are lined with knee-high fescue three to five yards from the fairway grass. Eleven of the 14 driver holes have fairway bunkers, and six holes bring out-of-bounds into play. Very rarely do we see so many opportunities for the world’s finest to get in this much trouble off the tee.
Seven of the 11 par-4s stretch over 450 yards and three of the par-3s over 200 yards. Mid- to long-iron approach play is the skill needed to separate from the rest of the field. Last summer, Scotland was witnessing a historic drought and St. Andrews could be played with a driver, wedge and putter. The conditions for this championship will be very similar to 2014 when Rory won by two strokes over Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia. An inch of rain is expected pre-championship and almost another inch during the competition.
Soft conditions will favor the longer more accurate ball strikers. As if Rory and Scottie Scheffler needed any more advantages. Over the past five years on Tour, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland and Rory McIlroy are the most successful when it gets wet. You will read endless amounts of a.m./p.m.-p.m./a.m. tee time-wave content, but in the end, we just don’t know what the weather will bring. Jon Rahm played in the absolute worst conditions of the 2023 Masters and still earned the green jacket.
When it comes to coastal golf, certain players excel. The top 5 best coastal course players over the past five years on the PGA Tour are Rahm, Hovland, Cam Smith, Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa. That's a venerable who’s who of the top of the betting board, so how can we continue to separate the betting contenders? We’ve established the course conditions and skills needed and now history can also help us.
Each of the last 10 Open winners were ranked No. 40 or better in the Official World Golf Rankings. Six of the 10 were ranked inside the top 10. Recent form also matters when it comes to winning the Open, as 16 of the last 22 winners going back to Tiger in 2000 won earlier that season prior to grabbing the Claret Jug. The No. 1 ranked player in the OWGR has not won the Open since Tiger in 2006 and eight of the last 10 played the week before.
Outside of Augusta, major venues move. Comparison courses can be difficult to determine over time. One interesting connection I came across really caught my attention. Contenders at Royal Liverpool also play very well at TPC Sawgrass. Tiger, Rory, Sergio, and Rickie have all won the Players Championship. Adam Scott is the only player in the field who finished inside the top 10 in 2006 and 2014 at Royal Liverpool, and he won the Players in 2004.
Dig deep enough and we can always see ways to separate the world’s best. Hoylake doesn’t get many Opens, but when it does it seldom disappoints. From Bobby Jones to Tiger Woods, the best has won on the shores of the River Dee. Pay close attention to best ball strikers defined by those trends and we will build a successful Win, Place and Show for the 151st Open Championship.
Win: Viktor Hovland
There was a time when all Viktor Hovland did was win on coastal golf courses. What seemed like a slight is now an advantage to the young Tour star. A proven winner from The Memorial, Hovland has three top-10 finishes in the last four majors. That includes a fourth-place finish at St. Andrews in 2022. Viktor wins in the wind because of his trajectory control. An impeccable driver of the ball and long-iron player, his recent form fits every Open winner trend. The smiling Norwegian is ranked fourth in strokes-gained off the tee and second in proximity to the hole. Take Viktor Hovland (+2000 SI Sportsbook) to win the Open Championship.
Last week's pick: We tabbed Matt Fitzpatrick but he didn't make the cut.
Place: Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa has gained positive strokes with his putter in four of his last five starts. The media loves to malign Morikawa for his flatstick but recently his putting has performed alongside his full swing. He's also incredibly accurate off the tee. When he does miss, he is off-target by less than anyone else in the field on average. Throw in his world-class approach game and an Open win on his resume; he’ll contend for the Claret Jug. Take Collin Morikawa to finish Top 20 (+130 SI Sportsbook).
Showdown: Wyndham Clark over Tony Finau
Wyndham Clark has gained over eight strokes total on average over his last 10 starts including two wins. Tony Finau is losing strokes on average against the field over his last five tournaments. In two of those starts, he missed the cut. Take Wyndham Clark over Tony Finau head-to-head.
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Last week's pick: We picked Rasmus Hojgaard to finish as low Danish player, and noted that his brother Nicolai would be the stiffest competition. Well, Nicolai turned out to be the low Dane. Oops.
Last week's pick: Winner! We took Min Woo Lee over Justin Thomas, a good sweat until Sunday when Lee shot 70 to Thomas's 73 and cashed the ticket.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Rory McIlroy +700
Scottie Scheffler +750
Jon Rahm +1100
Cameron Smith +1400
Brooks Koepka +1800
Viktor Hovland +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Rickie Fowler +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Tyrrell Hatton +2200
Shane Lowry +2500
Xander Schauffele +2500
Collin Morikawa +2800
Jordan Spieth +2800
Dustin Johnson +3000
Matt Fitzpatrick +3500
Justin Rose +4000
Tom Kim +4000
Bryson DeChambeau +5000
Cameron Young +5000
Max Homa +5000
Sam Burns +5000
Tony Finau +5000
Wyndham Clark +5000