2023 British Open Bettors’ Roundtable: Golf Gambling Experts and Writers Give Their Best Bets, Sleepers and Busts
The final men’s major of the summer has arrived, and the 151st British Open is set for Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, England. The forecast calls for cool, blustery conditions, which makes betting this event perhaps even more intriguing than ever.
To prepare, we’ve again convened a roundtable of SI Golf writers and gambling and fantasy experts from Rotowire.com to break down all the angles. Which sleeper could surprise? Who will disappoint? And who will ultimately raise the claret jug on Sunday? On to the panel.
The last time the Open came to Hoylake, in 2014, Rory McIlroy hung on to win by two shots over Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia. Tiger Woods won there in 2006 while at the height of his powers. What kind of player profile is a good fit for the course this time around?
Alex Miceli, SI Golf: Tiger won hitting irons off the tee for most of the week as a baked-out Royal Liverpool course was firmer than any course I’ve ever seen. McIlroy had a more proper venue, with humps and bumps but relatively calm conditions. This week’s forecast is windy, cold and the rough has been watered to be more of an issue than in past Opens. So, this Open will be similar to the recent U.S. Open in L.A. Find the fairways and the round will be a lot easier, which may be difficult given the wind that is forecasted all week.
Len Hochberg, Rotowire: Length will always help, as Woods and McIlroy illustrated. But ultimately I believe this tournament will be won from 100 yards and in. There is so much trouble lurking around the greens, so many options around the greens, so many undulations on the greens. That's links golf. To answer the question: short game and putting.
Gary Van Sickle, SI Contributor: Fairways and greens is the formula for most majors. At the Open, the trick is often incoming rain and wind. A good wind player—hello Oklahoma State alums!—might be good choice.
Greg Vara, Rotowire: Judging by the list of players above, the profile is that of a really good golfer, so perhaps we shouldn’t expect the unexpected this week. As is the case at just about any Open Championship, it takes more than solid golf swings, it takes a certain amount of mental toughness because everyone is going to catch some bad breaks. How the player deals with those breaks will go a long way in determining who comes out on top. And I’ll always look for guys with solid and creative short games, if we’re looking at stats.
Keith Stewart, Founder of Read the Line, SI Contributor: Fescue-lined fairways will frame the driving holes. Six holes have out of bounds and 11 have fairway bunkers challenging players off the tee. A year ago, Scotland was experiencing a drought. The flat terrain at Royal Liverpool will play soft due recent rains just as it did for Rory’s win in 2014. The best ball strikers will excel on one of the easier courses in the Royal rota. Favor great drivers and approach players over around-the-green skill. They will need major championship experience, but on these small green complexes not nearly the putting acumen it took in 2022.
The British Open rota is filled with great courses. Let’s remove the Old Course at St. Andrews for a moment. Other than that one, what’s your favorite course in the rotation?
Gary Van Sickle: Turnberry has the best scenery. Pretty good track, too. I’d want to play there no matter who owns it.
Keith Stewart: I loved Royal Portrush in 2019. The re-introduction of courses we haven’t experienced in many years energizes the world’s oldest major championship. Of the pure rota, my favorite is Muirfield. The world’s finest women were challenged by those links last year, but for the men, we have waited since 2013 for a return. Past champions at Muirfield really define the resume of this incredible links design. From Player, Nicklaus and Watson to Els, Faldo and Mickelson, one can only hope we will see it again soon.
Len Hochberg: I didn't recall much about Royal Liverpool. But I have watched flyovers and am greatly looking forward to it, especially the new baby-short 17th hole and the now 600-yard-plus 18th. But It would have to be Carnoustie. That's the biggest beast of them all, considered the hardest of them all. Jean Van de Velde may not like this answer, but oh well.
Alex Miceli: If you consider Turnberry still in the Open rota, that would be my choice. The newest iteration is spectacular and has a history with the Duel in the Sun.
Greg Vara: I prefer my Open Championships tough, so I’m a fan of Carnoustie. I particularly love the closing holes. I think I first became fascinated with the closing stretch in 1999 when Jean Van de Velde had his infamous meltdown. The scenes from that final hole are still clear as day. How can you not love a closing stretch with so much potential peril? I think I’m also fascinated by the success of the Europeans there as they’ve won the past three Opens at Carnoustie.
You can get pretty creative British sports books. What's one unconventional golf bet you'd like to make this week?
Gary Van Sickle: Somebody to make a deuce on a par-4. Like Rory.
Greg Vara: The weather plays a large part in keeping scores in check at Hoylake, and we’re supposed to get some wind this week which could lead to some wild swings. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a line on largest swing from Round 1 to 2, but I’d imagine we are going to get some wildly dissimilar rounds between Thursday and Friday. I’m always intrigued at how a certain golfer can shoot 10 strokes better or worse than the day prior. Perhaps we’ll see some of those this week.
Keith Stewart: Adam Scott is the only player in the field who has finished in the top 10 of the last two Open Championships played at Royal Liverpool. The brilliant Aussie finished fifth in 2014 and eighth in 2006. Based upon his recent ball striking form, I believe he will finish in the top 10 again. I realize a top 10 isn’t all that unconventional of a bet, but when you understand the circumstances for three in a row over 17 years, the outlier aspect makes it quite interesting to follow.
Len Hochberg: I saw some wacky ones—best score by a golfer from a certain country, best score by a golfer from Scandinavia. How about if the winning golfer's last name begins with the same letter as your last name, you win. I'll take my chances with Viktor Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton.
Alex Miceli: Holes-in-one is an interesting bet depending on the course. This week with a par-3 that measures 136 yards but can play less, it has a better than average chance of an ace.
The early rounds at the British often send writers to Google for a “Who is this guy?” moment. What sleeper, odds 80-1 in the SI Sportsbook, could be that guy this week?
Alex Miceli: The list is much longer than one player with Ryan Fox, Patrick Reed, Talor Gooch, Keegan Bradley, Padraig Harrington, Brian Harman, Gary Woodland, Matt Wallace, Phil Mickelson all at 80-1 or worse, but if I was going with a name that is mostly unfamiliar to the golfing audience it would be Thriston Lawrence.
Keith Stewart: One name that will be mentioned many times in previews this week as a sleeper is Padraig Harrington. The 51-year-old Irishman has shown incredible play as of late on the PGA Tour. At +8000, his experience in the Open Championship will be valued. When you take a closer look, Paddy missed the cut in 2006 and 2014 at Royal Liverpool. Instead of Harrington’s history, I like Byeong (Ben) Hun An. He qualified for the Open Championship through his finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. An is awesome off the tee and in 2014 he finished 26th at Hoylake.
Greg Vara: This might be a popular answer, which perhaps makes him ineligible for this question because many people have already Googled him, but Matthew Jordan (110-1) is certainly a candidate to spring to the top of the leaderboard early this week. The reason? He’s likely played this course more than anyone in the field and his game appears to be rounding into form. The public certainly has some faith in Jordan as his odds are similar to some well-established players.
Len Hochberg: Three guys I'm looking at. First, and this is a well known guy, is Robert MacIntyre. He's 125-1. He has two top-10s at the Open, plus nearly won last week at the Scottish Open. The other two guys better fit the thrust of the question—Thriston Lawrence, a 26-year-old South African with three wins in the past year, and Jordan Smith, a 30-year-old Englishman. Both are in the top 100 in the world rankings, both finished in the 40s at the Open last year, both have been playing well coming in and both are about 200-1.
What favorite, odds 30-1 or lower, could disappoint?
Keith Stewart: Shane Lowry (+2200) has two top-10 finishes in major championships since his 2019 Open Championship victory. Those came at the Masters and the PGA Championship. The books will keep his odds low as a past champion, but overall, as a betting favorite his chances of winning are even lower.
Greg Vara: I’ll use this one again because it’s valid—Rory McIlroy (7-1) is likely to disappoint only because nothing short of a win will be considered a success this week. That doesn’t mean I think he’ll play poorly, but odds are he doesn’t win, which just means that the streak continues, and Rory walks away unsatisfied with his results.
Alex Miceli: Patrick Cantlay, who hasn’t won in 2023 and missed the cut at the Scottish fits the bill nicely here.
Len Hochberg: This was hard for me, because I believe that come Sunday, the first page of the leaderboard will be dominated by these guys. But the one guy I feel strongly won't be there is Patrick Cantlay. He's developing a habit of getting into the top 15 in majors, which is pretty good, though not much higher, which is not befitting a top-5 golfer (yes, I know he tied for eighth last year at St. Andrews).
Gary Van Sickle: I’m not sure about Jon Rahm in windy conditions. And I could be totally wrong about that.
There can only be one: who wins this British Open?
Alex Miceli: Collin Morikawa.
Keith Stewart: The perfect player for Royal Liverpool drives the ball with incredible acumen, flights his long irons and can handle major championship pressure. Since 2000, 16 of the 22 Open Champions have won earlier in that season. Each of the last 10 winners sat inside the top 40 in the OWGR, and six of them were inside the top 10. As a PGA Professional, I love a closed-face player in the wind across the Atlantic. For all the reasons above and with three top 10s in his last four major championship starts, Viktor Hovland (+1800) is my choice.
Greg Vara: I sound like a broken record here, but how can you not like Scottie Scheffler this week? O.K., he’s yet to fully figure out his putting, but the man just continues to put himself in position to win and I’m expecting that again this week. Any concerns about Scheffler on a links-style course were alleviated this past week at the Scottish Open, so outside of the putting, there’s absolutely nothing to worry about. Scheffler will continue to strike the ball better than anyone in the field this week, and he makes a few more putts, which leads to major number two.
Len Hochberg: Go back to my first answer. 100 yards and in. Short game and putting. Cameron Smith is the best in the world at that and will foil Rory McIlroy yet again.
Gary Van Sickle: Remember when Brooks Koepka looked unbeatable at Oak Hill? He adds another leg to his career slam.