2023 Masters: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Augusta National
You don’t have to be a great putter to win the Masters.
I was going to write that in this article, so why not start there. During Masters week you will read an endless amount of pundit print covering the most popular golf tournament of the year. From the changes to the 13th hole, LIV golfers on site and an excessive amount of coverage over Tuesday night’s Champions Dinner, we all can’t seem to get enough of this annual pilgrimage to Amen Corner.
When it comes to conventional coverage, that’s as far as I’m going down that rabbit hole. I believe that behind the curtain, this tournament is one of the most predictable of the year. Statistics prove that statement year after year and my approach to 2023 reflects it. I’ll even take a couple of unpredictable examples and show you what I mean.
Eighty-eight players are descending upon Augusta, Ga., to compete in the Masters. Of that group, 52 of those players competed last year on the same course. True, they did significantly change one hole, but overall, a repeatable field of the world’s best players are competing on the same golf course (year after year). From the fan favorites to the past champions, the odds board reflects a similar pattern as well. Almost all the same names can be found in the lower outright odds.
We all know weather can be an unpredictable thing. This week looks rough for the tournament organizers in the case of wet weather. ANGC leaders just navigated through a deluge during the final round of the Augusta Women’s National Amateur. From late Thursday through Sunday, more rain is forecasted. A significant amount again to say the least. Have no fear friendly pool participants and die-hard bettors, we faced these same conditions just a couple years ago in 2019.
Remember when Tiger Woods won his fifth green jacket in 2019? He played in the final group with Tony Finau and Francisco Molinari. Augusta always plays in twosomes over the weekend. Not that edition; the entire weekend was weather-tested much like the whole tournament. Hold tight, I’m not saying that means Tiger will win in 2023, rather we can predict how the course will react to a very similar group playing the same course under comparable conditions.
I keep writing "the same course," and I bet many of you cringe when I do. “They completely changed the 13th hole!” Trust me, I understand the evolution of this golf course. The renovation of this par 5 represents a meaningful microcosm of how to play Augusta National Golf Club successfully. The predictable skill set needed after decades of champions donning a green jacket has been proven.
The modern champion of the Masters will need three primary traits to contend, let alone take home the title on Easter Sunday.
- The 13th hole will play 35 yards longer this year. Golf’s most beautiful risk-reward par 5 has been significantly lengthened. In doing so, they have taken the easiest hole relative to par and increased the difficulty. No longer easily reachable for most of the field, players will need extra length off the tee to turn that famous corner. In doing so, they have further weighted the value of distance as a necessary function of contending.
At Augusta National they believe in mowing backwards toward the green to decrease roll. We know it will be very wet this week further adding length. Then there’s the elevation changes, as many of the longer holes force you to climb hills. Power is priority number one.
- Since the players will sit farther back from the green on 13, getting home in two will be a bigger challenge. Don’t kid yourselves, if they moved it 50 yards back the modern player would still fire it over the tributary of Rae’s Creek. Instead of needing a mid-iron to cover and get to the green, they will now use a long iron. Skill two is great long iron play. Masters competitors are faced with a constant barrage of long iron shots to very small targets.
Our winner this week must hit his irons sky high and be able to stop them. Proximity to the hole, greens-in-regulation gained, and a couple nice bounces will all be needed. Tiger Woods has five green jackets because he was the greatest iron player who ever lived. Beyond power, don’t discount long-range approach play.
- Once these guys shell the green complex with 4-irons and more on the new par 5, they will take their chances and play from there. “There” can be anywhere greenside and that’s O.K. since it is a par 5 and there’s no laying up! ANGC is the most difficult course on the PGA Tour around the green. Thirty-two of its 47 bunkers can be found greenside. From the sand to swales, the players must be confident chipping and pitching.
In 2021, seven of the top 11 finishers were in the top 10 for strokes-gained around the green. In 2022, it was eight of the top 12. The leaderboard will be littered with great wedge players. Scrambling, bogey avoidance, par 5 scoring and sand saves are all affected by a player’s competence and creativity around these green complexes.
They changed one hole significantly and the impacted the whole field by further amplifying the need to show power and grace under pressure. Speaking of grace, let’s get back to the art of putting prior to picking our Masters Win, Place, and Show.
These are the most undulating, fast and thoughtful greens on Tour. They test every aspect of your putting patience and skill. But here’s the problem: they are too hard. They cause every player to putt defensively. In doing so, it takes away the advantage great putters have. If putting is that important, how did Hideki Matsuyama and Will Zalatoris finish 1-2 in 2021? Others to add are Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and even Tiger in his 2019 win, all finishing outside the top 20 for strokes-gained on the greens! According to golf’s premier statistician Justin Ray, the average ranking of the winners since 2015 is outside the top 10 (11.6) for strokes-gained putting.
Win: Scottie Scheffler
There’s no getting around the fact Scottie Scheffler is going to become the fourth man to successfully defend his Masters title. Of course, we don’t love his odds at +700, but in life it pays to be patient. The Masters is an emotional week and many will get caught up in the Rory story or any Tiger dialogue. Let Scottie fade into the background as he always does. Wait until the last moment on Wednesday and look for those odds to climb. A realistic goal is to get the best ball-striker in the world up to +1000. If it doesn’t move at all, then follow his round on Thursday. If he gets off to a slow start, then bet him to win at a higher number. It doesn’t matter when you grab him, it will pay out come Sunday evening.
Last week's pick: Ben Martin had a solid top 10 but didn't win for us.
Place: Corey Conners
Fresh off his second win at the Valero Texas Open, Corey Conners is ready for more success at the Masters. In his last three starts, Conners has finished T6, T8, and T10. SI Sportsbook is offering positive odds for him to finish in the Top 20. One of the Tour’s best ball-strikers is in great form and has confidence in Augusta.
Last week's pick: Tyler Duncan was tabbed for a top 40 but a third-round 77 doomed him to T58.
Showdown: Justin Rose over Tyrrell Hatton
Sorry, Tyrrell Hatton, last week in Texas it was your possible injury and this week I’m targeting your attitude. Year after year Hatton has been very transparent about his dislike for the design and conditions at Augusta National. In six starts at the Masters, Hatton has just one top 20 and two missed cuts. Justin Rose, however, only has two missed cuts in 17 trips. Thirteen of his 15 weekends have resulted in a top-25 finish. That consistency against Hatton’s head is an edge we love. Take Rose over Hatton (-112 Fanduel).
Last week's pick: Winner! Rickie Fowler cashed in the showdown as Tyrrell Hatton missed the cut.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Tyrrell Hatton +1200