2023 Players Championship Bettors' Roundtable: Favorites, Sleepers and Best Bets for TPC Sawgrass
One of the deepest fields of the season is set to converge on TPC Sawgrass for another edition of the Players Championship. Tiger Woods did not enter this event as he works his way back from injury. Several of the top players in the world are peaking at the perfect time. (A few are also struggling. More on that shortly.)
We've once again convened a roundtable of veteran golf writers along with golf gambling and fantasy experts from Rotowire.com to offer their unique insight and handicap this year's field. Joining this edition: Rotowire's Len Hochberg and Greg Vara, SI Golf’s Bob Harig, Alex Miceli, John Schwarb, Gary Van Sickle, and Keith Stewart. On to the questions:
The Players’ list of past champions features plenty of high-wattage names, like Cam Smith last year, Justin Thomas (2021) and Rory McIlroy (2019). But there’s also a mix of the unexpected, like Webb Simpson (2018) and Si-Woo Kim (2017). Is this event tougher to handicap than the average tour stop? Why or why not?
Bob Harig, SI Golf: It is because the Stadium course favors no game. It’s not a long-hitters’ paradise, but hitting it short doesn’t necessarily help, either. It’s point-to-point golf, and lots of different styles of player can accomplish those goals. Hitting greens is important because there’s a lot of difficulty around them, but that is nothing out of the ordinary. The bottom line is that a lot of different styles are rewarded at Sawgrass.
Len Hochberg, Rotowire: Very hard to handicap. Two of the most confounding things are that there are really no horses for the course and there is more than one way to win. Guys who have done well, even win, have been just as apt to miss the cut. There have been only five two-time winners in four decades. No one has won three. Last year, Smith ranked 35th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and first in strokes-gained putting. The year before, Thomas was first in tee-to-green and 42nd in putting. Maddening!
Gary Van Sickle, SI Golf Contributor: Is it tougher than the average tour stop? Craig Perks and Fred Funk are winners here, alongside Tiger Woods and Justin Thomas. Explain that, and while you're at it, tell me why Pluto doesn't count as a planet anymore. Pete Dye's design has proven scoring resistant or at least not easily dominated by length. So big hitters don't necessarily rule at Sawgrass. The other wild card is that any errant shot may end up in water and cause a double or a mega. Mistakes are costly. So you get a mix of winners who are long, short, iron-smiths, putting savants or just look good in white slacks. There is no specific horse for this course.
Greg Vara, Rotowire: I believe it’s tougher, mostly because we don’t have many, if any players that have a consistently strong track record at this event. Why is that? It’s not the answer you want to hear, but it seems like luck has more of an impact on this event than most others. There are so many approach shots on this course where the line between birdie and bogey is a couple inches. This course does not let up, you have to be locked-in on your approach shots all week to have a chance.
Alex Miceli, SI Golf: It is one of the harder events to handicap because the entire field has a realistic chance. You need to do everything well, but more importantly you need to be consistent. Length is nice, but not necessary, since TPC Sawgrass is more of a second-shot golf course that is generally in pristine shape. The greens are designed with quadrants, very similar to Augusta National, so get to the right place on the greens and you are always looking at a very makeable birdie putt. The reason Tiger Woods and Fred Funk have won the Players, is because that week both had total control of the golf ball, which is required to win majors and required to win the Players.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: Pete Dye's masterpiece bedevils everyone and doesn't favor any type of player, but it's been years since there was truly a surprise winner. The list of runner-ups in recent years though is rather motley (can you name last year's without peeking?), fortunately we're not trying to pick exactas.
Keith Stewart, SI Golf Contributor: There have been 20 elite events on the PGA tour in the last three years. In those events, the eventual winner was listed in the top 10 pre-tournament odds 53% of the time. With a quick glance over the last decade at the Players, this trend holds true. So don’t scroll too far down the list, you’ll win more often when you stay near the top.
What factors do you look for in a player when assessing his chances this week?
Van Sickle: I like someone who's been playing well, maybe has a little track record at Sawgrass and can chip and putt like a bandit. You're going to miss greens and get Dye-abolically awkward chip shots. You may be able to short-game your way around this place. See almost-winner Paul Goydos.
Vara: You definitely need to be strong between the ears, that or just stupidly confident because even the best players in the world can get intimidated by the final stretch at TPC Sawgrass. Five of the past six winners of this event are also holders of at least one major title. As for physical skills, I’m looking for ballstrikers, those that can place it well off the tee and come into the green with accuracy. Length is not all that important this week, I’m looking at strokes-gained approach to green.
Miceli: Confidence is the biggest factor. You take a Jon Rahm and how he’s started the season, he’s someone you look at because of his confidence. Rory McIlroy, who has had success at TPC Sawgrass, is another important factor. Most rookies, or those with limited starts, may as well go get ready for Tampa next week.
Hochberg: Sawgrass is not long, yet there's water everywhere and a solid, conservative tee-to-green game normally is paramount. Bogey avoidance is a key statistic. You can blow up in a hurry. While Smith was not great tee-to-green last year, he did avoid the big number—zero double bogeys. The winning score is usually 10 to 15 under, so there are birdies to be had if golfers pick their spots. Maybe the best thing you can say about any golf course is that it requires you to use every club in your bag. That's Sawgrass.
Stewart: Of the major strokes-gained categories, the most important over the past five years is strokes-gained putting. The last five Players winners have gained just under five strokes against the field on the greens. That’s more than the usual leading category, strokes-gained approach. TPC Sawgrass is known for its treachery off the greens, but this week the secret to winning is on them.
Harig: Iron play. You still need to hit good approach shots no matter where you are hitting them from on the course. It’s getting into position to hit them that is also an important factor.
The PGA Tour announced last week that several designated events in 2024 will feature smaller fields with no cuts. How closely do you study and participate in the “make/miss cut” betting market for big events, and are you disappointed it won’t be as prevalent next year?
Hochberg: As someone who writes the weekly DraftKings article for RotoWire, finding lesser guys (priced in the $6,000s) who can make the cut to fill out a lineup is imperative. It's really hard to get 6-for-6 through to the weekend. Sometimes, DFS games are not won with the Jon Rahms of the world but with the Adam Schenks. So, extremely disappointed with the removal of so many cuts. There seems to be at least a faction that would like to get those back, hopefully in 2025.
Miceli: Anytime you take away something to bet on it’s disappointing. Making the cut is a staple of golf tournaments and to take that away lessens the betting experience.
Stewart: It's one of the most difficult wagers to predict and when you consider the odds listed, I don’t see the value. If a book wants to offer a betting opportunity where there’s an edge, I’m game, but this is one of the least popular betting markets in the prop category.
The changes to the schedule next season really don’t amount to much. If you consider there’s only going to be eight no-cut events, that is not much different than recent history. Several years ago we had the Tournament of Champions, Tour Championship, Zozo, CJ Cup and four WGCs. That’s eight no-cut events and the media never mentioned it.
Schwarb: I'm very disappointed and would have to believe the Tour's five (!) official gambling partners are too. Picking winners is hard but miss/make cut props are easier and a fun way to stay engaged through an event's first two rounds. Exhibit A would be Tiger last month at Riviera, where his grind to the weekend rewarded bettors at +150.
Vara: I don’t look at that market too often, but when I’ve got a good feeling about an under-the-radar guy, you can bet that I’m checking to see his price to make the cut. There can be a lot of value with a made-cut bet, you just have to find that guy that no one is paying attention to. If we lose more events with cuts, I’ll be disappointed. I think it’s healthy for the PGA Tour to give more players a chance at the big prize. I don’t want to see this devolve into a LIV-like tour.
Van Sickle: I never bother with make-cut bets. I'm a born sucker who bets players to win. I've had a few hit, including Scheffler at Phoenix, Justin Rose at Pebble and Rahm at Kapalua. I have better luck when I wait until the second round is over. Yeah, the odds are lower but at least the contenders have been sorted and you can maybe play a hunch or go with the best player on the board, as I did with Rose at Pebble. I'm available for betting lessons, $100 an hour, or double or nothing.
Harig: Even if they go through with this for the 11 proposed events, that leaves 23 other weeks where there will be a cut. As as it stands now, there are also four opposite events with full fields that would have a cut.
Which sleeper, odds 80-1 or longer in the SI Sportsbook, could surprise this week?
Van Sickle: I'd take Sahith Theegala at 75-1 in a second. He's turned into a top-10 machine and is going to win one of these weeks. If I've gotta go above 80-1, I'd take Seamus Power at 80-1. The Irishman ranks third in putts per round, fourth in par-3 scoring and seventh in strokes-gained putting. It would be a big stage for him to win on but I'd definitely back him for a top-10 finish.
Harig: Billy Horschel at 80-1. And I’m not sure that is such a surprise. He’s a solid player who's had plenty of success in his career, lives near the course and is fully capable of playing well on it.
Vara: I’m not very excited about this crop of longshots, but Doug Ghim (250-1) has piqued my interest just a bit. Ghim is not playing all that well this season, but he’s managed to play pretty well here in his two starts and perhaps he just has a feel for this course. Ghim finished T29 his first year here in 2021 and T6 in his second start in 2022. Six of his eight rounds here have resulted in scores under par.
Miceli: Francesco Molinari. The Italian has mostly struggled since his collapse at the Masters in 2019. But now he is showing up on leaderbaords and starting to get his mojo back. His game is a perfect fit for TPC Sawgrass: a ballstriker who can control the golf ball.
Hochberg: Davis Riley at 80-1. Riley burst on the scene with a great first half of 2022, then inexplicably tumbled the rest of the year and into 2023. But a recent caddie change showed promise at the Honda until a Sunday fade dropped him out of the top-25. Riley had a top-10 at Bay Hill, punctuated by a Sunday 66. He might not be 80-1 for long.
Stewart: There have been two types of longshot winners at the Players in recent years; young soon-to-be superstars (Si Woo Kim) and excellent veterans (Webb Simpson). I see one remarkable rookie capable of winning on this stage, Taylor Montgomery (125-1) is a world-class putter and possesses an excellent short game. He’s tremendous off the tee and that combination makes him a top-5 par 4 scorer in this field. At Bay Hill he finished with positive strokes gained in every major category. Take the Vegas native for this week’s best bet at the bottom of the board.
Schwarb: Give me Brian Harman all day at 100-1. Two top-eight finishes in the last three Players for the ultimate grinder.
Which favorite, odds 30-1 or lower, could disappoint?
Van Sickle: Doesn't Jon Rahm have to run out of gas at some point? Sawgrass requires some right-to-left shots and Rahmbo does better going the other way. He can still win on any course, anywhere, but the man is human. I think.
Vara: Jon Rahm. I know, how dare I? When we talk about disappointment though, his bar is set higher than everyone else. Anything outside a top-5 is a disappointment, so yeah, he might disappoint this week. Rahm had a miserable Friday and Saturday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and something is clearly off. This doesn’t mean that he’s going to miss the cut this week or go on a long bender, but as of right now, he’s not playing like the guy who tore apart the PGA Tour over the past six months.
Miceli: Will Zalatoris. No way to really know if he is healthy or not. Seems to always have a nagging injury.
Stewart: There are two guys I’m going to stay away from this week. Patrick Cantlay has missed the cut two straight years at TPC Sawgrass and even with a strong showing at API, still concerns me with the flatstick this season. Speaking of putters, Sam Burns is another to fade as he just can’t use his putter enough. Burns's iron game is off and that’s a sure sign for a short week on the Stadium Course.
Hochberg: Collin Morikawa is a conundrum. Already in 2023, a runner-up, a third, a sixth. But also missed cuts at Phoenix and now Bay Hill. He's played Sawgrass twice with a T41 and last year's missed cut. It seems silly to bet against someone ranked eighth on Tour in the all-important strokes-gained approach category, but that's actually a step down for Morikawa, who was ranked first, second or third in the three previous seasons. With his suspect wedge and putting games, there's little room for error with his irons.
Harig: Jon Rahm. As well as he’s played of late, Rahm has mostly struggled at TPC Sawgrass. His lone top-10 in 2021 was a tie for ninth. He has three other finishes outside of the top 50.
Schwarb: Sungjae Im doesn't have a great record at the Players in three previous starts and doesn't he have to get tired one of these weeks?
There can only be one: who wins the 2023 Players Championship and why?
Hochberg: Last year, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler tied for 55th. Rory McIlroy was 33rd. Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele? Missed cuts the past three years for both of them. Those are the top five guys in the field. This is probably the hardest week all year to get the outright winner. Talked earlier about Sawgrass requiring every club in the bag. That sounds like a Max Homa golf course. Max Homa will win.
Harig: Patrick Cantlay. His game and demeanor seem perfectly suited for TPC Sawgrass and it makes sense for someone to win the tournament who has not done so already while also not having won this year.
Stewart: Everyone will have reasons to select Rory, Rahm, or Max, but as a bettor I have learned my lesson. In four starts this season, he has finished 7th, 11th, first, and 12th. He’s ranked first in the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green and yet we seldom hear his name. He has five wins in 13 months and somehow, he’s still somewhat under the radar. He has nine top-21 finishes in his last 10 major championship starts. Scottie Scheffler (+1100) is my pick to win.
Vara: Justin Thomas. While it’s true that no one has dominated this event over the years, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone in the field with a better track record than Thomas. Thomas has yet to miss a cut here in seven tries, and he won this event in 2021. He has just two top-10s here, but again, nobody dominates this event and the fact that he shows up every year says a lot. His form looks solid as well as he’s coming off a good showing at the API. Everything is lined up for J.T. this week. Now, if we could get just a little more wind in the forecast, he’d look even better.
Miceli: Jon Rahm is the real deal. He has all the tools and uses them to his advantage. He’s confident, never seems to get flustered and can demolish any golf course.
Schwarb: Justin Thomas. Haven't seen his best this season, which only means the 2021 Players champ will be hungrier on the year's biggest stage so far. And surely the Full Swing cameras will eat it up.
Van Sickle: This may come as a shock but I like former Players champ Rickie Fowler, who's been in a mid-life slump until the last few months. He's got his swing straightened out and has played his way onto several leaderboards. The putter has held him back but at Bay Hill, he went to a fat grip and started holing putts like a young Rickie again. Short of Tiger winning, the return of Rickie would be the next biggest story you could hope for. At 40-1, vote early and often.