2023 WGC-Dell Match Play: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Austin Country Club
AUSTIN, Texas — Let me guess, your bracket is busted. Over 50 million brackets were filled out in advance of the NCAA Tournament and not one survived completely intact. March Madness is alive and well. If you’re one of those Purdue fans (sorry Adam Schenk) or Arizona fans, I have terrific news for you. There is a whole new bracket game to bet on. The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play starts Wednesday in Texas.
Austin Country Club has been the host since 2016 for this wild PGA Tour match play extravaganza. Unlike any other event on Tour, 64 of the best players in the world will compete in individual matches to see who will win their version of March Madness. The format is different than the NCAA, so let’s first breakdown how the eventual champion will reach the trophy ceremony on Sunday night.
- Starting in 2015, the PGA Tour went to a group stage format
- 64 players are sorted into 16 groups of four
- Each group winner advances to the top 16 knockout bracket on Friday night
- Those 16 play Saturday morning, the remaining eight on Saturday afternoon
- Semifinals start on Sunday morning and then the finals and third-place match are on Sunday afternoon
By the end, your winner and runner-up will have played seven matches in five days. That’s an incredible amount of golf for this elite field. Considering the schedule changes we have experienced this season, that will be five designated events in seven weeks. Did I mention the Masters is just two weeks away?
- 26 of the Top 30 players in the world are in Austin
- The purse is $20 million dollars with $3.5 million going to the winner
- Winning isn’t the only goal this week, a couple are playing to get into the Masters. The top 50 in the OWGR by the end of the week, not already eligible, get an invite.
Pete Dye’s Austin Country Club is a match play masterpiece. The par-71, 7,108-yard layout has a beautiful blend of risk and reward decision-making. Players are consistently tested by elevation changes, uneven lies and penalty areas. Dye’s diabolical design puts a premium on accuracy, which is why Austin Country Club is such a great fit for this unique event. To win the Dell Match Play, you must keep the ball in play.
Previous winners in Austin have shared an average starting seed of 25. Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, Jason Day and company won here with incredible accuracy and pressure-packed putting. That’s the key—pressure. Handicapping this field starts with your ability to keep the ball in play. By consistently putting your ball on the fairway and on the green, you will wear down your opponent. We know the big three (Scheffler, Rahm, Rory) are all leading the strokes-gained tee-to-green category. Who else is a contender?
The top four through eight ranked SG:T2G players are Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Tony Finau and Sungjae Im, yet even those guys might be ranked too high for this week. On average, only five of the 16 highest-ranked group stage players advance to the Sweet 16 on Saturday morning. Austin Country Club has 110 bunkers. Short game skill and scrambling are an incredible edge for seven matches. The ability to score from close range for birdie or par will help you win.
- When you combine scrambling, sand play, putting and pitching, the five best players in this field are Maverick McNealy, Jason Day, Andrew Putnam, Ben Griffin and Sam Burns.
Imagine a player like Sam Burns this week. He has incredible win equity and is one of the best putters in the field. Jason Day’s recent run of top-10 finishes catches our attention as well. Speaking of catching our attention, Austin CC has 13 holes where trouble lurks to the left. To compound the issue, many of those holes move from right to left off the tee. Possessing a fade bias will help you on this course, especially when you consider the winner will play about 120 holes.
- We know who the best players are at avoiding trouble left off the tee. As we try to handicap this tight field, we need certain edges to ensure we win. Si Woo Kim, Andrew Putnam, Tom Hoge, Adam Svensson and Jason Day lead the list of players who never look left.
To beat the top players in the world you need to score. Some players make more birdies than others. If this were a normal week, we would also worry about bogey avoidance as well. Truth is, if you aren’t playing for birdie or better this week on every hole you are going home. That is what makes this so much fun to watch. Much like a Ryder Cup, when these guys don’t worry about a total 18-hole score, they fire at everything.
- I took the best scoring stats and comprised a list of the elite birdie machines. No surprises here as Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Cameron Young, Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay were the top 5. I looked a little further and the next three were Tom Hoge, Max Homa, and Viktor Hovland.
A couple names keep coming up in my research. You have seen a bunch of them throughout this article. Therefore, it should be no surprise to read my Win, Place, and Showdown for this week at the WGC.
Win: Max Homa
Max Homa has been incredible in 2023. Following a win at the Farmers in San Diego, he finished second at Genesis, T6 at the Players and T14 at API. The tougher the test, the better he plays. A fader of the golf ball, his game fits Austin Country Club. An excellent approach player and putter, that combination has him ranked in the top 10 for both skills in this field. Max also has some moxie. He believes in himself and it shows. With four wins in his last 31 starts, he sure should. Take Homa (+2200 SI Sportsbook) to handle his matches and win the WGC.
Last week's pick: Denny McCarthy finished T19, not bad but not the tournament winner.
Place: Scottie Scheffler
At +800 on SI Sportsbook you cannot justify taking Scottie Scheffler to win in an event this volatile. Yes, he’s the defending champion, but let’s be realistic. We can however bet him to finish in the top 4 at +225 (DraftKings). At almost one-third his outright odds, we can make a little money off the No. 1-ranked player in the world.
Last week's pick: We cashed winner with Wyndham Clark, picked to finish in the top 20 and coming home in solo fifth.
Showdown: Tom Hoge Over Aaron Wise
I love Tom Hoge in this event. His approach proximity is second to none. We witnessed this when he shot 62 at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course two weeks ago to set the course record. Aaron Wise on the other hand has one of the worst strokes-gained tee-to-green rankings in the field. It’s been a struggle lately missing four of his last five cuts. On Wednesday in Round 1, take Tom Hoge over Aaron Wise (-120 DraftKings).
Last week's pick: Ben Griffin was picked over Taylor Moore and Moore won the tournament, so that tells you how the pick went.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Scottie Scheffler +800
Jon Rahm +1100
Rory McIlroy +1200
Patrick Cantlay +1800
Collin Morikawa +2200
Jordan Spieth +2200
Max Homa +2200
Tony Finau +2200
Viktor Hovland +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Tyrrell Hatton +2500
Sungjae Im +2800
Cameron Young +3300
Jason Day +3300
Matt Fitzpatrick +3300
Will Zalatoris +3300
Sam Burns +4000
Shane Lowry +4000
Tom Kim +4000
Tommy Fleetwood +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
Rickie Fowler +5000