U.S. Open Bettors’ Roundtable: Golf Gambling Experts and Writers Give Best Bets, Sleepers and Busts for U.S. Open at L.A. Country Club
Last week will live in golf history as one of the wildest weeks the sport has ever experienced. But a new week begins, and while golf is still absorbing the news that the PGA Tour, DP World Tour and LIV Golf tours have struck an alliance, a major championship is set to be played and it promises to be a good one: The U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club.
To break down the betting angles we once again brought together a cast of gambling experts and golf writers. Joining this edition: SI Golf’s Alex Miceli, John Schwarb and Jeff Ritter, SI contributor Gary Van Sickle, Read the Line Golf Prognosticator and SI Contributor Keith Stewart and two members of Rotowire’s Fantasy Golf coverage: Greg Vara and Len Hochberg. On to the preview.
The golf world was rocked by the news of the alliance between the PGA Tour, DP World Tour and LIV Golf. Every player is talking about it, and every player who meets the media this week will be asked about it. What’s your take on the news, and does it affect any specific players in the field, positively or negatively?
Alex Miceli, SI Golf: The news was surprising, but not shocking. It had to happen, the money being spent was out of control and cooler heads prevailed. That being said, it’s going to take a while before there is an answer on the end result No specific player should be affected positively or negatively, but some will take on the burden.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: My takes have varied in recent days but the one I'm sticking with now is "stay tuned." Who knows how long this will take to shake out and what it will look like? As for players, Rory is always a talking point going into a major and I think the exhaustion factor is still in play after being so close to all this for a year. He's a stay-away at 10-1.
Keith Stewart, Founder of Read the Line and SI Contributor: I believe the news positively affects the LIV players. Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, and the rest have been facing considerable scrutiny since leaving the PGA Tour. After the news this week, they are no longer going to be perceived in the same light. That is a huge weight off their shoulders. The media will be more focused on the “loyalty” narrative, and for once the LIV players will face less difficult questions in the press room.
Gary Van Sickle: SI Golf Contributor: Rory McIlroy, the player face of the Tour Empire, has apparently already made peace with the deal. It’s doubtful that the alliance will affect anyone’s actual play. Now that we understand a bit more, the PGA Tour had the opportunity to take billion(s) from the Saudis or to fight against their billion(s). The Tour decided it was better to take the money and run, especially in a new for-profit format to be determined. Big money rules. Ironic that LIV was suing the PGA Tour for holding a monopoly on golf. Now that it’s been absorbed, it is totally a monopoly. The Justice Department may not let this alliance stand.
Greg Vara, Rotowire: When the news first broke, it was assumed that the tours would again be combined, but now perhaps that’s not the case? In addition, there appear to be many hurdles to clear for a legal standpoint, so after all of this, it’s safe to say that no one knows what happens from here. As for the golfers this week, those who played in Canada might have an edge as they’ve answered the questions from the media already, but something tells me Rory is still going to get peppered all week. It’s a distraction for sure, but these guys have dealt with distractions for the past 18 months, they know how to handle them by now.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: My take on the news is that it was a busy week at the office, and we’re only getting started. I’m not sure if the LIV golfers’ general swagger is misguided, since we don’t really know how this is alliance is going to play out, but at the moment it sure feels like LIV’ers are strutting into L.A. feeling pretty good about themselves.
Len Hochberg, Rotowire: A week later, there remain so many unknowns. One thing seems certain: The PGA Tour could not continue financially going down the same path it had been the past year. I don't expect it to have much impact on the actual golf this week. We've had two majors to get the PGA Tour-LIV Golf awkwardness out of the way.
The U.S. Open will return to LACC in 2039, and the USGA is keeping Pebble Beach in its rotation (2027, ’32, ’37, ’44) while the PGA Championship will be staged at Olympic Club in 2028. Would you like to see more majors in Pacific Time? What courses outside the current rotation could host them?
John Schwarb: As an eastern time zone resident, I love California prime-time majors. No objection to the current rotation.
Len Hochberg: I live in the Los Angeles area, so I don't get the full impact of a prime-time major the way East Coasters do. But I do know how amazing that is. In much of the West, there's no rain this time of year and weather is not an issue. In learning about LACC the past few weeks, it's remarkable this jewel had never played host to a major before. I like the three courses you mentioned for a West Coast rotation. Riviera would be great, but they say the grounds are not big enough for all the corporate-ness required for a modern-day major.
Gary Van Sickle: As a TV viewer, it's great to have golf in the evening on the East Coast. It beats brainless sitcoms, cop shows and the CFL. I still think Spyglass Hill ought to host a major. Some of the Bandon Dunes courses are good enough but they're too far from civilization, meaning sponsors and luxury suite-buyers. Montana, you got anything?
Alex Miceli: I could take or leave California for a U.S. Open. I think Riviera might be a great venue, but not sure about the infrastructure.
Jeff Ritter: I enjoy West Coast majors, and why can’t Bandon Dunes host a big event? Media and fans are used to far-flung travel in the UK for Open Championships. Why not try it once here? Also —and I realize this could get me run off the panel—I would be fine seeing the USGA bring the men’s open back to Chambers Bay. It wasn’t that bad in 2015!
Greg Vara: I’m all for anything that forces us viewers to change our routines a little. Almost every event throughout the season is held within the same general time frame, no matter the location, so when we get something outside of that box, say the British Open, or a U.S. Open that goes well into primetime, I’m all for it. I wouldn’t want it every year, but I enjoy the change of pace every few years. As for other venues out West, I’ve always liked Riviera, but we haven’t seen a major there since the mid-'90s and perhaps there’s a reason for that.
Keith Stewart: I’d love to see either the Cal Club or Pasatiempo on television. The amount of prime-time major championships suits me fine, but those two could be added to any event calendar and the world would love what they see.
A total of 15 LIV Golfers either qualified or were exempt into the field this week. Who among them has the best chance to win?
Greg Vara: At this point you’d be crazy not to say Brooks Koepka, right? I’ll admit that I gave up on Koepka at some point last year, but he’s obviously back to where he was a few years ago. There’s no injury report in the game of golf, all we know is what the players give us, and we can never really be sure where these guys are at physically. Koepka looked like toast last year, now he’s back to being a force at every major. Also, I’m again going back to Cam Smith, who has underwhelmed at the first two majors, but is just too good to continue playing like that.
Keith Stewart: Both Brooks Koepka and Cam Smith have the game to win at LACC. Since the Masters, Smith has finished third, sixth, second, ninth (PGA), and ninth. With conditions very similar to last summer at St., Andrews, he should be on everyone’s radar. Brooks’s major winning ways are back. Second at Augusta and first at the PGA, Koepka can dominate off the tee at LACC and scramble. Of the LIV players, he is the favorite at +1000.
Gary Van Sickle: Brooks Koepka is back among the top of the heap, no doubt. He should maybe even be the favorite. Not sure what happened to Cam Smith but I expect him to show up and play well after this lull. Dustin Johnson, wherefore art thou?
Jeff Ritter: Certainly can’t ignore big, bad Brooks Koepka, but it’s about time for Cam Smith and Dustin Johnson to make a little noise at a major. And Bryson DeChambeau appears healthy and ready to contend again after a T4 at the PGA Championship.
Alex Miceli: Brooks Koepka is hands-down the one to watch. Bryson DeChambeau had a nice PGA, but he still has some work to do before he is the mix. Dustin Johnson and Cam Smith would be the other possible candidates.
John Schwarb: Brooks Koepka said his Masters mistakes wouldn't repeat at the PGA and he was right. He's not the only LIV'er with a chance, but if we're talking the best? Gotta be Brooks.
Len Hochberg: Fella by the name of Brooks Koepka. Also think Cam Smith has a real shot, even though his Open track record is not great. LACC is not a typical Open track; it's more of a second-shot golf course and play around the greens will be paramount. That's right up Smith's alley.
Give us a sleeper, odds 40-1 or longer in the SI Sportsbook, who could surprise this week.
Keith Stewart: Tommy Fleetwood (+4500) is a great player on firm and fast conditions. He was fourth at St. Andrews last year, and second at Shinnecock in 2018. Fleetwood is not only in great form with a runner-up finish in Canada but tested under pressure as well. He’s ranked seventh in the field for around the green play and an incredible long iron competitor. Watch him attack these incredible par 3s all week in route to victory.
Alex Miceli: Eric Cole played very well in the U.S. Open qualifier in Columbus and then shot a final-round 63 in Canada, which confirms he is playing some good golf coming into the U.S. Open.
Len Hochberg: No matter what you think about Patrick Reed (66-1), he delivers, even on super-long courses. Top 5 at the Masters, top 20 at the PGA. With short game expected to be such a big part of success at LACC, expect to see Reed on your TVs on Sunday evening.
Jeff Ritter: Not sure Tommy Fleetwood remains 45-1 for much longer given that he nearly won on Sunday in Canada. Also, Justin Rose at 40-1 and DeChambeau at 50-1 feel like bargains.
Greg Vara: We’ve got a long and difficult course this week, so getting off the tee in good shape, is priority number one. With that in mind, we’ve got Shane Lowry at 60-1, who ranks 7th on the PGA Tour in total driving and 28th in strokes gained off the tee. Oh, and he knows how to win a major as well. The U.S. Open hasn’t been Lowry’s best major historically, but he did post a T2 at the 2016 U.S. Open, an Open that saw just four players finish under par that week.
John Schwarb: Tommy Fleetwood is No. 1 on Tour in strokes-gained around the green and may have won the RBC Canadian Open if Nick Taylor hadn't holed an all-time playoff bomb. Getting a first stateside win at a U.S. Open is a longshot but it's been done before, and 45-1 is a fair price (alas, he was 55-1 before he almost won Sunday).
Gary Van Sickle: Justin Rose, a former U.S. Open champ, was lurking at the PGA Championship. He's just the kind of fairways-and-greens guy who could swipe an Open.
Give us one favorite, odds 30-1 or less, who could disappoint?
Alex Miceli: Rory McIlroy is an odds-on favorite and will also find a way to miss out on another chance to win a major.
Len Hochberg: Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and Tony Finau, all 28-1, have not been great in majors of late. Probably should mention only one, because mentioning three triples my chance of being wrong, but oh well. Thomas may have the best chance of the three to do well because he's so sharp around the greens.
Jeff Ritter: It’s not over yet, but this is spiraling toward a lost season for Justin Thomas.
Keith Stewart: U.S. Opens test your resolve. Little shots that require touch always seem to define the winner. Cameron Young (+3300) is a brilliant ball striker, but his short game and putting have been off. Young is ranked in the bottom third for both categories and with a negative strokes gained average in both categories over his last ten starts, he’s one to fade this week in Hollywood.
Gary Van Sickle: Not sure what happened to Jon Rahm at the PGA Championship. Look him up, it's hard to find a bad statistical category for him. He does it all ... except he ranks 114th in putting from 4 to 8 feet; 180th from 6 feet; 138th from 5 feet; and 161st from 4 feet. Those are small stat samplings but his close-range putting hasn't been great. Still, I wouldn't bet against him.
Greg Vara: I’ll start this by stating that there aren’t a lot of players to choose from in this category. That’s a result of the concentration of talent at the top of the odds chart, which pushes some pretty good names beyond 30-1, but I digress. I’m looking at Matt Fitzpatrick (30-1) in this spot and it’s not necessarily anything to do with his game, but he’ll be defending his first major title this week and that’s never easy. Honestly, I don’t dislike anyone at 30-1 or better this week, so even this pick was a bit of a stretch.
John Schwarb: Justin Thomas (28-1) simply hasn't had it this season and comes here off a missed cut at Memorial and T65 at the PGA. He's 120th in greens in regulation and 141st in strokes-gained putting and that's tough to bet on this week.
There can only be one: who wins this U.S. Open and why?
Len Hochberg: Scottie Scheffler has not finished outside the top-12 in seven months. He's won only twice since then in large part because of his putter. But his tee-to-green game has been historically good. At the Memorial, he gained more than 20 strokes on the field. Dare we say, Tiger-esque? He also lost more than eight shots to the Memorial field on the greens. And finished one shot out of a playoff. If Scheffler just puts less bad—not even good, just less bad—he'll win. I think he'll putt less bad.
Alex Miceli: LACC seems to fit Brooks Koepka to a tee.
Jeff Ritter: Very tempted to go with Cam Smith or Viktor Hovland, but I’m going down the board a bit and taking Tommy Fleetwood. LACC is long, but it’s also quirky and will test a player’s short game, which is just enough to scare me off Hovland. I love how Fleetwood rallied on the weekend in Canada, and he’ll roll into L.A. feeling great about his game. He’s one of those guys who was due for a major breakthrough about five years ago—this is the week it happens.
John Schwarb: Before the PGA, when asked about his Ryder Cup hopes, Brooks Koepka said a 2-1-1-1 majors season would be tough to ignore. He then won—how's that for swagger? Koepka won the 2018 U.S. Open by one shot over Tommy Fleetwood (my sleeper), how about running that back in Los Angeles?
Keith Stewart: Cam Smith (+2200) will win the U.S. Open. The super firm conditions will put him right at home. Smith grew up on the sand belt of Australia. Those experiences gave him great confidence during the British Open and that skill set will separate him again from the field in Los Angeles. While some are critical of his driving acumen, these are the largest fairways we have even seen in a U.S. Open. Watch Smith’s short game swagger steal the show and help him earn his second major victory.
Gary Van Sickle: Scottie Scheffler almost won Memorial and the PGA Championship despite not having his best putting weeks. He's been top 10 in 9 of the last 11 majors. He's always there, like last year with Matt Fitzpatrick. Seems like the class of this bunch, despite his occasionally awkward footwork. Kids, don't try that at home.