Rory McIlroy’s Masters Odds See Dramatic Shift After Win at Pebble Beach

The Northern Irishman still needs the Masters to complete the career grand slam and his odds are dropping.

Rory McIlroy's odds to win the Masters dropped after his big win at Pebble Beach. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Rory McIlroy had one of the great performances of his outstanding career last week, dominating a field featuring most of the best players in the world en route to an impressive two-shot win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. 

Oddsmakers took notice too with a lookahead to the first major of 2025. 

Mcilroy was +1000 to win the Masters on FanDuel Sportsbook last week. After his nearly flawless performance at Pebble Beach, he’s dropped to +650. His implied probability of winning the Masters is now 13.33%, over 4% higher than it was before Pebble. 

McIlroy is now the second betting favorite behind reigning Masters champion Scottie Scheffler, who has +420 odds to win his third green jacket. Xander Schauffele (+1300), Jon Rahm (+1300), and Ludvig Aberg (+1600) follow. 

2025 Masters Odds

• Scottie Scheffler +420
• Rory McIlroy +650
• Xander Schauffele +1300
• Jon Rahm +1300
• Ludvig Aberg +1600
• Bryson DeChambeau +1700
• Collin Morikawa +1800
• Hideki Matsuyama +2100
• Justin Thomas +2800
• Tyrrell Hatton +3100
• Brooks Koepka +3100

McIlroy is still trying to complete the career Grand Slam by winning the Masters. He’s had plenty of near misses at Augusta, including 2011 when he led going into the back nine before shooting a 43 over his final nine holes. Still, he finished in the top 10 every year from 2014-18 and finished in second place in 2022. He missed the cut in 2021 and 2023 and finished T22 last year. 

The bigger issue for him seems to be getting over the hump at a major. He has won four in his career, but his last one came at the PGA Championship in 2014. Since then, it’s been a case of missed opportunities, none more poignant than last year’s U.S. Open when he missed two putts inside four feet over the final four holes, losing by one stroke to Bryson DeChambeau. 

McIlroy has come out firing this year. He finished T4 at the Dubai Desert Classic and just put on a clinical performance to win at Pebble Beach.

In gusty winds and cold conditions, he shot a bogey-free 65 on Saturday. Then he backed it up with a 66 on Sunday highlighted by an eagle on the tough par-5 14th that essentially put away the tournament. He also made a hole in one in his opening round and made only one bogey on the weekend. 

Since the 2024 Masters, Mcilroy has made 20 starts worldwide and has four wins and 12 top-5 finishes. 

McIlroy will likely play the Genesis in two weeks as well as the Players Championship plus a few other tournaments. Unless he completely unravels over the next two months ahead of the Masters, his odds aren’t likely to change much from here. It seems unlikely he will pass Scheffler, the No. 1 player in the world, however. 

This was McIlroy’s 27th win on Tour, the first player to reach that number since Phil Mickelson in 2005. He’s looking to join Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods as the only players to win the career Grand Slam.

The competition will be tight with many of the other top players also in good form early this season. But oddsmakers like McIlroy’s chances after his dominant performance at Pebble. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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