High School

OPINION: Unicorns, investments and Aaliyah Chavez — why teams should go all-in for the nation's top recruit

Texas Tech has questions to answer as top teams close in on five-star recruit Aaliyah Chavez

Levi Payton

Monterey's Aaliyah Chavez (center) swag surfs with Krista Gerlich and the Lady Raiders during the Texas Tech basketball block party, Monday, October 28, 2024, on Broadway.
Monterey's Aaliyah Chavez (center) swag surfs with Krista Gerlich and the Lady Raiders during the Texas Tech basketball block party, Monday, October 28, 2024, on Broadway. / Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to Investopedia, when famed venture capitalist Aileen Lee began popularizing the term “unicorn” in the money market more than a decade ago as a way of describing unique financial circumstances. She explained, “I used the word ‘unicorn’ because it is … kind of magical, that takes some alchemy, some great timing – a lot of things have to come together. It’s not easy.”

Now, I don’t know much about ventures into unique financial circumstances – at least not any good ones – but if Investopedia said Lee was a Texas high school basketball coach explaining what it’s like to gameplan for Aaliyah Chavez, I’d have bought that.

Chavez, a 5-foot-11 senior guard at Monterey High School in Lubbock, Texas, is about to discover some unique financial circumstances. Based on Lee’s description, is the very definition of a unicorn on and off the basketball court.

Of course, it’s easy to heap such praise and hype on someone while they’re ranked No. 1 in the country at what they do. Chavez is the nation’s No. 1 high school girls basketball recruit in the 2025 class and has been for quite some time. She’s going to make a million dollars someday, and millions more will watch her hone her craft on the national stage.

But – and there’s always a “but” – Chavez is unlike most other No. 1 recruits. Once her career is finished she will go down as one of the greatest high school girls basketball players to have walked the planet., However, it’s not over yet after Monterey won the Region 1-5A Division II championship on Friday, Feb. 21, advancing to the state semifinals for the first time since 1990.

According to MaxPreps, her 4,767 career points put her 16th all-time in career scoring for high school girls. She'll move into 15th all-time when she scores her first points against Frisco Memorial in Tuesday's Class 5A-II state semifinal, which is slated to tip at 6:30 p.m.

She's scored more than 1,000 points in all four seasons of her high school career, including 1,412 in 40 games this season. She scored more points during the regular season than five entire teams Monterey faced on its schedule.

She scored 50 points for the ninth time in her career in last Tuesday's 76-40 region semifinal win against Fort Worth Brewer, dropping 19 points in the second quarter and 18 in the fourth.

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It was the third time Chavez has scored at least 50 points this season. She also dropped 53 against Pampa on Dec. 26 - part of her 124-point performance at the Caprock Classic - and 50 against Lubbock Coronado Jan. 7.

She scored a career-high 57 points in an 80-56 win over Plano during her junior season on Nov. 16, 2023. In 39 games this season, Chavez has scored at least 40 points 15 times and has netted at least 30 in 29 games. 

When she scored 17 points against No. 8 Argyle in the Division II Region 1-5A final on Feb. 21, her career points per game average actually dropped half a point – from 35.8 to 35.3 per game.

But how she did it, and who she did it in front of, was still impressive.

Arguably the best high school girls defense in Texas, Argyle entered the game holding opposing offenses to a paltry 32.0 points per game and clearly had a gameplan focused on keeping Chavez from beating them as they inundated her with double- and triple-teams all game.

And while they did a better job at it than most, Chavez’s off night was still the majority’s best. Monterey still scored more points than any other team had against Argyle all season, Chavez still put together a reel of highlights and the Lady Plainsmen still won.

And Texas women’s basketball coach Vic Shaefer continued to prove how much he gets it when it comes to the nation’s best player. He was spotted with a big smile as he spoke with Lady Plainsmen head coach Jill Rankin Schneider – a former Texas assistant who was a member of the 1980 USA Women’s Olympic team and a member of the Women’s Basketball Hall of Fame – after the game.

He’s managed to guide his No. 2 Longhorns to a 26-2 mark this season while maintaining a steady eye on his prized recruit. They’re 12-1 in the SEC, tied with No. 6 South Carolina, who is 23-3 overall. But Shaefer’s competition with Dawn Staley goes beyond the standings.

Texas and South Carolina are among four of the original six finalists still involved Chavez's recruitment, after Talia Goodman of On3 reported UCLA is now out. Goodman previously reported LSU had also bowed out after Chavez's camp is believed to have requested $1 million in an NIL deal.

With the others out, Texas seemingly has the proverbial bull by the longhorns, though Jennie Baranczyk and her staff at No. 16 Oklahoma are still seen as a darkhorse by some experts.

Everyone’s chances got a bit better in recent weeks when On3 reported UCLA is also no longer part of Chavez’s recruitment.

The Black Sheep in the family of finalists, of course, is Texas Tech. The only unranked finalist, the Lady Raiders are in a precarious position. They’re 14-15 overall and just 3-13 in the Big 12 this year. And, one could argue, they’d face the biggest setback if Chavez chooses to go elsewhere.

The Lady Raiders are in desperate need of a unicorn like Chavez. She’s the type of player who can reshape a program both with her play and influence.

She’s already done it at Monterey High School, where she changed the landscape of a program that just reached its first state semifinal in 35 years and put her squad on the map for the tens of thousands of eyes who follow her on X, formerly Twitter, and Instagram.

Just being in the mix for the nation’s top player is good exposure for Texas Tech – even if you listen to detractors who say it’s only a token nod to her hometown program – but the exposure quickly fades and means little if she gets away.

Aaliyah Chavez
Texas Longhorns basketball coach Vic Schaefer talks to basketball recruit Aaliyah Chavez ahead of the football game against Mississippi State at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The truth is, while the Lady Raiders struggle to get their footing in the Big 12, the other programs on Chavez’s list – all ranked – continue making all the right moves.  

Chavez is on record saying she prefers a program with a steady coaching staff, telling On3 in an interview, "I don’t want a coach that’s low energy. I need to make sure that they’re going to be there the whole time. I don’t want a coach that’s just going to be there for two years. … I want them to be there all four years."

As if Texas Tech doesn’t have enough to worry about on the court this season, that quote should’ve put the program on high alert.

Take it for what it's worth in today's landscape of revolving doors, but Baranczyk, Staley and Shaefer all recently inked contract extensions that will take them into the 2030 seasons at their respective programs.   

And then there’s Tech, where questions seemingly hang over Lady Raiders head coach Krista Gerlich, who is in the lame duck year of a five-year, $2.9 million contract she signed in 2020. That deal is reportedly set to expire on May 30, 2025.

To date, Gerlich has gone 72-80 since signing that contract, with Tech’s best finish a 20-15 mark in the 2022-2023 season and a trip to the Super 16 round of the WNIT.   

In a column by the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal on Jan. 13, Gerlich spoke about her team’s offensive struggles this season and vowed to keep working toward a solution. The Lady Raiders, then 12-6, have gone 2-9 since that article was written. Their latest attempt to right the ship ended in a 61-60 loss to 10-16 UCF on Feb. 22.

There’s a lot riding on what Texas Tech decides to do with Gerlich. Chavez has been heavily recruited by Gerlich and her staff for years and there’s clearly a bond there.

Without an extension, however, Texas Tech seems poised to let the clock run out on Gerlich – allowing her contract to expire rather than terminating one of its own legends. Of course, they could also be waiting to hear Chavez's decision before making one of their own.

Either way, the limbo could be part of why Chavez is one of the last uncommitted 2025 recruits remaining on the ESPN HoopGurls rankings, along with No. 4 Agot Makeer of Florida’s Montverde Academy.

If Texas Tech lands the biggest fish in the pond, it would come as a surprise to many, but it wouldn’t be unprecedented. Last July, Texas Tech’s Matador Club collective inked Stanford transfer and USA Softball Collegiate Player of the Year ace NiJaree Canady to a one-year deal worth a reported $1,050,024.

Canady’s deal was shocking because it came on the heels of back-to-back Women’s College World Series appearances for the Lady Cardinal, despite the Lady Raiders having never been to a Women’s College World Series and no NCAA tournament appearances since 2019. But mostly, its value was most shocking, as it easily cleared the competition in overall NIL value for college softball players.

While they’re becoming more prevalent, million-dollar NIL deals are still relatively rare for college athletes, especially outside of football. Chavez, however, is believed to be seeking an NIL deal somewhere in that million-dollar range.

Today, that sounds like a lot of money. And it surely is. But in two or three years, it's hard to see how a unicorn like Chavez hasn't made good on that investment.

For her career, the Naismith Girls Basketball Player of the Year Award finalist, McDonald’s All-American and Mamba Invitational MVP has 4,757 points, 1,269 rebounds, 762 assists, 472 steals and 132 blocks, and per-game averages of 35.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 3.8 steals and 1.2 blocks across 148 games.

Her career average actually went down half a point when she scored 17 against Argyle. She’s been that good.     

With women’s college basketball riding an all-time high, Chavez is only going to add to that exposure. Now, we can only wait to find out if the rich will get richer or Texas Tech will pull off the ultimate heist.

Wrangling a unicorn sounds tough enough.

Texas Tech better giddy up.

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Levi Payton
LEVI PAYTON

Levi’s sports journalism career began in 2005. A Missouri native, he’s won multiple Press Association awards for feature writing and has served as a writer and editor covering high school sports as well as working beats in professional baseball, NCAA football, basketball, baseball and soccer. If you have a good story, he’d love to tell it.

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