We have our three favorites MLB bets of the day, including taking Corey Kluber on the road against a weak offense.
Welcome to the 3 at 3, where our MLB expert, Gabriel Baumgaertner, will give you his three favorite baseball bets on the day (via current odds from William Hill) at 3:00 p.m. EST.
Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays: Indians -1.5 (+110)
Betting against the Rays is a dangerous gambit because of how they confuse teams with their bullpenning strategy. But I’m going to ride with Corey Kluber, who silenced Tampa Bay over seven innings (while allowing just two hits and striking out eight) on August 31. The under (7 at -105) is a tempting bet, but it’s a little too low for an offense as powerful as Cleveland’s. Trust one of the AL’s best offenses even if it’s on the road against a tough pitching staff.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals: Royals -1.5 (+155)
I know what you’re thinking: Bet a 47-win team to win by two runs or more? Just hear me out. First, it’s a great value play. From there, I always recommend betting the over when Chicago starter Lucas Giolito takes the hill, but that’s not a safe bet. The justification for why I recommend the over when Giolito pitches (a 5.85 ERA for the season, though he has been better recently) is a major part of why I’m recommending the Royals. The White Sox have scored just 10 runs over their last five games and Royals starter Jakob Junis has a 1.89 ERA and just one homer allowed over his last six starts. Junis’s recent success coupled, the White Sox tepid offense bodes really well for Kansas City. Manager Ned Yost’s team has been hitting much better of late (five runs or more in 10 of its last 14 games) and the White Sox can’t hit at all.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: Brewers PK First 5 (+115)
Picking a first-five leader is a bizarre tact, but this pick is a paean to the excellent work of Wade Miley, who has a 2.12 ERA over 12 starts with the Brewers this season. Miley has allowed fewer than three earned runs in 11 of his 12 starts this season and his ERA hasn’t exceeded 2.38 at any point this season. Miley still rarely strikes batters out (he has a K/9 rate of just 6.2), but he flummoxed the Cubs in his last start (three hits, one earned run, zero walks over six innings), just like he has to pretty much every other team this year.
Betting against Jon Lester is questionable, but the Brewers tallied five earned runs against fellow lefty ace Madison Bumgarner yesterday (though four runs came home on one Jonathan Schoop swing). The team has won nine of its last 11 games and is renewing its run for the NL Central crown after going down by as many as five games to the Cubs.