Do Numbers Say Rockies Should Be Worried About Chase Dollander?

Is it time to panic about Colorado Rockies youngster Chase Dollander?

Jun 14, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Colorado Rockies pitcher Chase Dollander (32) pitches the ball against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park / Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

The Colorado Rockies lost on Tuesday, putting them back on the losing side of things after their win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday stopped a five-game skid.

It wasn't a huge surprise to see the Rockies get beat by the Houston Astros to open this interleague series, but it was disappointing to see Chase Dollander getting shelled once again.

Coming off a stretch where he had two quality starts in his previous three outings, the 2023 first-round pick who was selected ninth overall couldn't carry that momentum into July.

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The young right-hander gave up six earned runs on seven hits, including a third-inning grand slam that caused him to exit after just 2 2/3 innings pitched.

On the year, Dollander has a 6.65 ERA across his 14 starts in his debut season, striking out 50 batters in 65 innings while walking 29.

That is not what anyone expected out of the highly-touted pitcher.

Struggles are to be expected for young arms when they reach the Major League level, but seeing how other former top picks like Paul Skenes, Jacob Misiorowski and even Spencer Strider before them have performed during their debut years could be enough to cause concerns about the future of Dollander.

So, should Colorado be worried?

Simply put, the answer is no.

While Dollander's ERA of 6.65 does not look pretty, some of that can be attributed to bad luck since his xERA is 5.36.

That figure isn't dominant by any means, but a lot of Dollander's struggles have come in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field, with a 9.62 ERA across seven starts there and a 4.25 ERA across seven starts on the road.

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Of course, if he is going to become the ace of this Rockies staff like the franchise envisioned, then he needs to figure out how to pitch better at home. But that will come from more time and experience.

Other advanced statistics are positives in favor of the 23-year-old.

His Stuff+ is 103, which is above the league average.

He also has a cutter with a 123 Stuff+ rating and a curveball at 121, giving him two elite pitches in that metric while also possessing a slider that is given a value of 103.

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That's a good sign that he has the requisite arsenal to be a high-end starting pitcher, but what he needs to work on is his control, which is evident by his walk rate being at 10.0% and his Location+ being at 90.

Dollander was a prolific strikeout artist in 2024 when he was in the minors, fanning 169 batters in 118 innings pitched at the High-A and Double-A levels.

He hasn't been able to do that in the Majors thus far, but if he can combine his elite stuff with better control, then there's no reason he shouldn't develop into the top-of-the-rotation starter he was billed to be coming into his professional career.

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