Season of Rockies' Young Star Ends With More Questions Than Answers

Can Chase Dollander become the guy for the Colorado Rockies?

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Can Chase Dollander become the ace of this Colorado Rockies staff?

When the team selected him ninth overall in the 2023 draft, that was what they envisioned out of right-hander, with his makeup being one of a future star at the major league level based on what he had done during his college career.

And in his first professional season, it was easy to envision him leading this rotation for years to come as he climbed his way up the pipeline with an ERA of 2.59 across 23 starts with 169 strikeouts in 118 innings pitched at the High-A and Double-A levels.

While Dollander didn't come out of spring training with a spot on the Opening Day roster this season, it didn't take long for the Rockies to call up their top prospect. Following one start at Triple-A, he was promoted to make his major league debut.

That started a rollercoaster of a campaign, with Dollander flashing his high ceiling stuff while also displaying things that reminded everyone he's still a young pitcher facing the world's best hitters for the first time.

But with his season now over after Colorado announced they placed him on the 15-day injured list due to a left patella tendon strain, there are more questions than answers regarding the 23-year-old and his potential to become the No. 1 guy in this rotation.

Below is a look at both the positives and negatives regarding Dollander's first experience in the bigs.

The Good

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The easiest thing to point to is how he performed away from Coors Field. With an ERA of 3.46 across 10 starts when on the road, that at least should give everyone confidence that he can perform at a high level in the majors.

His strikeout stuff was also much better away from home, with his K rate at 22.2% to go along with a K/9 ratio of 8.13 when on the road. That is a huge step up from his K rate being 15.3% with a K/9 ratio of 6.85 at Coors Field across roughly the same number of starts and innings.

Outside of the home-road split stuff, there was a lot of unluckiness involved with Dollander. He finished his first MLB season with an ERA of 6.52 while his expected ERA was actually 5.22. Reducing home runs and generating more strikeouts as he grows in his career should help with that, so it's a good sign that even during his first taste of major league action, he performed better than the raw numbers suggested.

The Bad

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The issues at home stand out, but it's hard to adjust to pitching at altitude for young pitchers. If he's going to be the ace of the Rockies for the long haul, he has to figure that out. But that will come with time and experience.

The more glaring thing that stood out as a negative for Dollander was his lack of strikeouts. This was a guy who was fanning well over a better per inning in the minors, but that did not translate to the bigs during his debut season.

His strikeout rate of 18.6% was well below the league average of 22.1%, and even when spinning a positive on his road performance, the 22.2% K rate away from home is just barely above the league average.

While there have been successful starting pitchers who don't generate a ton of swing and miss, in today's game where batting average is not a point of emphasis for hitters, not being able to strike out a high number of guys doesn't suggest he's going to be a superstar pitcher.

Again, there is still plenty of time left in the career of the 23-year-old. But with his season now over due to an injury, there are still major questions about if Dollander can become the guy everyone envisioned when he was a prospect.

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