Why the Dodgers' Win in Game 3 of the World Series Gave Them a Massive Advantage

Freddie Freeman's 18th-inning walk-off home run gave the Dodgers a huge leg up in the World Series.

Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman's walk-off home run in the 18th inning of Game 3 gave his team a crucial win against the Toronto Blue Jays. / Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Dodgers came away with an unbelievable win in Game 3 of the 2025 World Series. In an 18-inning classic, L.A. outlasted the Blue Jays and finally took home a 6–5 victory thanks to a walk-off home run by Freddie Freeman.

During the game on Monday night, the two teams combined to use 19 pitchers, throwing more than 600 pitches in a game that lasted six hours and 39 minutes. Whichever team won was getting a huge boost, while the loser was going to feel demoralized. But that's not the only reason the Dodgers now have a big advantage in the series.

History is on L.A.'s side after their Game 3 win. In World Series history, when teams split the first two games, the winner of Game 3 usually winds up winning the series. The numbers are pretty stark.

That's bad news for the Blue Jays, who are probably looking for any reason to believe they still have a chance to win the series.

The history of Game 3 winners in a 1–1 World Series

The 2025 World Series is the 121st in MLB history, with the first modern series being played in 1903. Since 1905, the series has been a best-of-seven affair, except for the years between 1919 and '21 when it temporarily switched to a best-of-nine format. This year's World Series is the 62nd in the best-of-seven format to be tied 1-1 after two games. In the previous 61 instances, the winner of Game 3 went on to win the series 42 times. That's 68.9%. The odds are almost overwhelmingly bad for the team losing that third game.

Recent history can also serve as a guide here. The Dodgers took a 3–0 lead over the Yankees in the 2024 World Series before winning 4–1, but the previous four editions of the Fall Classic all featured a 1–1 start.

In the 2020 COVID-impacted World Series, the Dodgers and Rays were tied at 1–1 after two games. L.A. beat the Rays 6–2 in Game 3 and went on to win the series in six games.

In the 2021 World Series, the Braves and Astros entered Game 3 tied at 1–1 in the series. Five pitchers for Atlanta combined to throw a two-hit shutout in that game, leading their team to a 2–0 win. The Braves took the series in six games.

In 2022, the Phillies topped the Astros in Game 1, while Houston countered to win Game 2. Philadelphia won Game 3 in a 7–0 blowout, but, bucking the trend, the Astros won the final three games of the series, winning it 4–2 in six games.

During the 2023 World Series, the Rangers won Game 1 over the Diamondbacks 6–5 in 11 innings. Arizona answered by taking Game 2 with a dominant 9–1 performance. Texas wasn't deterred and swept the next three games to win the series 4–1.

In three of those four instances, the team that won Game 3 went on to win the series, which is close to the all-time average. Taking a 2–1 lead in the World Series remains a massive advantage.

The Dodgers are now in the driver's seat to take home their second-straight championship.

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