NBA DFS Picks for December 26
After a full day of NBA Christmas action, the rest of the league takes the court on Tuesday. Since many of the league’s big names played on Monday, we need to really dive deep in order to find some of the value on this slate. Be sure to try LineupLab's powerful PlayerLab Tool, where you can gain an edge over your opponent by filtering for the statistics that you believe matter most.
Team Stack Alert
The Grizzlies are looking Grrreat
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8,500, DK: $8,600)
Projected Points: FD: 39.99, DK: 40.55
Andrew Harrison (FD: $4,500, DK: $4,100)
Projected Points: FD: 24.41, DK: 23.56
Marc Gasol (FD: $8,600, DK: $8,700)
Projected Points: FD: 37.16, DK: 37.35
Opponent: Suns
On a night with a bunch of slow and defensively-minded teams running out there, the Grizzlies get the perfect DFS matchup against the Suns. Phoenix plays at the second-fastest pace in the league and ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, meaning you get the luxury of increased possessions and high-quality looks.
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The Grizzlies run deeper rotations in the small forward and power forward positions, but these three starters all have high floors because of their minutes and relative usage.
Evans’s 27% usage rate is second highest on the team, and it goes up to 29% with Mike Conley off the court. Memphis desperately needs Evans’s scoring (he’s second on the team with 18.8 points per game) and he has become one of the two focal points in the offense. He rebounds the position well (five boards per game) and is taking a career-high five three-pointers per game, knocking them down at a 40% clip.
Meanwhile, Gasol draws a solid matchup against a team allowing 3% more scoring and 4% more rebounds than league-average to opposing centers. He has pulled down double-digit boards in four of the last six games, including an 11-rebound performance just five days ago against these very Suns. He struggled from the field in that game, going 1-for-7 from three and 6-for-19 from the field, but we’re really only concerned with the volume here. He’s a fantastic play again and should be in line for a double-double performance.
And finally, Harrison is a guy who needs all the minutes he can get in order to hit value. But the run has been there for him in the short term, with him playing more than 30 minutes in both of the last two games. He’s coming incredibly cheap on both sites, and the FanDuel price is particularly attractive on a night which could be light on solid punt plays.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $11,800, DK: $11,500)
Projected Points: FD: 54.86, DK: 55.38
Khris Middleton (FD: $8,000, DK: $8,400)
Projected Points: FD: 39.87, DK: 40.64
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $7,600, DK: $7,500)
Projected Points: FD: 40.36, DK: 40.64
Opponent: Bulls
After sitting out Saturday’s game with knee soreness, Giannis is probable going into Tuesday. He is, by far, the highest projected player on the slate, and likely the only big-money guy to prioritize going into Tuesday’s matchups. He’s putting up MVP numbers, averaging 30 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists per game. The Bucks have been liberal with his minutes and even with mild concern around the injury situation he’s still such a high-floor play because he scores his points in every conceivable way. The Bulls are a bottom=third defensive team and have no real answer for Antetokuonmpo. They are allowing more than league-average scoring and rebounding to wings.
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Giannis averages the most minutes per game in the league, but Middleton isn’t too far behind at 37 per game (currently third). It’s tough to find this kind of on-court security when it comes to cash games. Middleton’s versatility on both ends of the court keeps his floor high, because he can score and add points on the defensive end. He’s getting a bit expensive, but there aren’t a lot of ways to spend up on this slate of games.
Bledsoe is another upper-middle tier play who has become a cog in the Bucks’ offense of late, averaging more than 15 shots per game over his last five and rebounding the position well, pulling down four boards per game. With Giannis controlling so much of the Bucks’ offense, you aren’t going to get classic point guard assist numbers from a guy like Bledsoe, but he’s still vital to their productivity.
Positions
Point Guard
Kris Dunn, vs. Bucks (FD: $7,400, DK: $7,000)
Projected Points: FD: 38.09, DK: 37.34
Dunn is an incredibly volatile play because he’s subject to random blowout games and does have a streaky shooting side that can draw Fred Hoiberg’s ire from time to time. But he has incredible upside because when the shot is falling and the defensive stats are coming, he can pile on the points. Dunn’s per-minute steal numbers are the best in the league and that matters a lot on FanDuel where defensive stats are completely over-weighted. He’s risky as a cash game play, but has big tournament upside if everything is clicking.
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Shooting Guard/Small Forward
Josh Richardson, vs. Magic (FD: $6,000, DK: $6,800)
Projected Points: FD: 29.32, DK: 29.05
Dion Waiters and James Johnson have been ruled out for this game, and once again the Heat find themselves desperately short on wing players. Richardson’s versatility on both ends should help his minutes climb well into the mid-to-upper-30s, and the Magic are woeful on the defensive end. Richardson has been shooting much more in the short term, averaging 16 shots per game over his last five. He sees a massive usage spike with Waiters and Johnson off the court, going to 23% from 17%, and he should continue putting up shots in this Heat offense. He’s a much better deal on FanDuel, but is in the mix on both sites simply because few other players have his minutes floor.
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Power Forward/Center
Bismack Biyombo, vs. Heat (FD: $4,400, DK: $3,800)
Projected Points: FD: 21.67, DK: 20.95
Nikola Vucevic is out for the next two months, and that’s going to open up a ton of center minutes for the Magic. Biyombo is in line to soak up a lot of that run, and though he doesn’t profile anything like Vucevic on the offensive end, he’s still coming cheap enough as a punt play. He’s a double-double threat if the minutes reach the lower 30s with big-time defensive upside, as well. Again, Biyombo isn’t much of a threat on the offensive end considering his post game is non-existent, and he needs the pick-and-roll and put-back game in order to get any real scoring going. But the Heat are undersized without Hassan Whiteside in the picture, and Biyombo is simply too cheap given his current role.
Zach Randolph, vs. Clippers (FD: $6,000, DK: $6,000)
Projected Points: FD: 33.98, DK: 34.76
We typically abhor recommending anyone on the Kings because their rotations
and minutes expectations are the thing of nightmares. Still, Randolph should see somewhere around 30 minutes against a Clippers frontcourt allowing higher than league-average production to power forwards. He played 31 minutes last time out and has run 26 or more in each of the last three. He can score in bunches, and the Clippers have no obvious foil for his skill set with Blake Griffin out of their power forward mix.
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Derrick Favors, vs. Nuggets (FD: $5,600, DK: $5,900)
Projected Points: FD: 33.47, DK: 32.45
With Rudy Gobert out again due to injury, the Jazz will turn to Favors as a small-ball center play in the short term. Favors sees a small usage bump and massive rebounding increase with Gobert off the court this season. His playing time is much more secure with the Jazz needing him to take many of the center minutes, and he gets a great matchup against the Nuggets who get crushed by opposing bigs. They are allowing 8% more scoring to power forwards and centers, and Favors is coming much too cheap on both sites considering how the Jazz will use him now with Gobert out of the mix.
