NBA Rookie Rankings: Jalen Green's Growth, Evan Mobley Steals the Show and a Bull on the Rise

The NBA's rookie class has shown no signs of slowing down as we reach the midway point.

As bad as the Rockets have been this season—and at times it’s been downright ugly—there are glimmers of optimism, including from their prized rookie, Jalen Green. Since his return from a hamstring injury, Green is averaging 20.5 points per game in his last six contests, shooting 45% from the field and 44% from three compared to 38% and 28% marks in his first 18 professional contests. The jump in efficiency is no mystery. Green is beginning to trust his elite first step with increasing frequency, eschewing the unsure backpedal dribbles in favor of bursts toward the tin. Green can turn the corner against even the quickest wings in the league, dipping his shoulder past defenders before he rises to the rim. Green is finishing 49.4% of attempts on drives to the rim, a respectable sixth out of 21 rookies with at least 50 attempts. When Houston’s offense stalls in the halfcourt, a headstrong drive from Green is often the best option available.

“[Green] gets to that corner and it’s over,” Silas says after Wednesday’s win. “Now, he’s getting to those little quick finishes. With him, it’s all about quick decisions. That’s what I’ve been harping on with him.”

Green logged a career-high 14 free-throw attempts against Denver on New Year’s Day, and he’s registered five-plus free throws in four of the last five contests. That growth is intentional, and frankly, as Green grows both his frame and stature in the league, he should receive calls with an increasing frequency. Green’s free-throw rate and percentages from the field are in line with the rookie season of Zach LaVine, Green’s most frequent draft comp. Like Chicago’s star, Green’s shooting numbers will level out as the rookie ages.

The advanced numbers still aren’t kind to Green at the moment. He ranks No. 491 out of 536 qualified players in defensive rating, struggling both as an on-ball defender and weak side helper. He also turns the ball over at a shaky 14.6% rate and isn’t making the same skip passes we see from fellow rookies Cade Cunningham (Pistons) and Josh Giddey (Thunder) in the pick-and-roll. We’ll need to see some major growth from Green to place him in the top tier of our rookie rankings. But the talent of a franchise anchor is there. Houston has the time to capitalize on it. 

1. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers

A pair of wings have challenged Mobley for the top spot in recent weeks, but it’s hard to tab anyone but Mobley as the jewel of the rookie class at this point. Opponents are scoring a scant 101.9 points per 100 possessions with Mobley on the court, and that number dips to 99.4 points per possession when Mobley is paired with Jarrett Allen. Mobley is already a sturdy defensive anchor, one whose versatility has allowed Cleveland to play its ultra big lineups with ease.

But his offensive ceiling is the major surprise here. He’s finishing 74.4% of his shots in the restricted area, a better mark than Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokić and Domantas Sabonis. He sports a better assist-to-turnover ratio than Cunningham. And his George Gervin–esque finger roll against Washington was a move so smooth it elicited a congratulatory dap from Kyle Kuzma. Mobley’s smarts and size on the defensive end set the floor for a productive NBA career. His offensive skill raises his ceiling to a potential All-NBA talent.

2. Franz Wagner, Magic

You’d be forgiven for not paying attention to the Magic given their 7–32 start. But there’s an intriguing project at play. The Magic are increasingly trusting rookie Franz Wagner as a lead playmaker—especially when Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs are out of the lineup. So far, the increased responsibility has paid dividends.

Wagner is averaging 20.8 points per game in his last 10 contests, including a 38-point outburst against Milwaukee on Dec. 30. Wagner ranks second among all rookies in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR player ratings. He’s already logged 180 possessions as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, and, while he sports a middling 0.86 points per possession in those attempts, such a significant total suggests significant trust from first-year coach Jamahl Mosley. Wagner is far more than a simple spacer. He’s an off-the-bounce threat with a burgeoning playmaking streak, one who stands among Orlando’s most promising pieces amid an ongoing rebuild.

3. Scottie Barnes, Raptors

Barnes’s offensive production as a rookie may be even more surprising than Mobley through the opening months of the season. The Florida State product entered the league with a sterling defensive reputation, and his filled-out frame suggested he’d be an instant presence around the rim. But Barnes’s game already extends well past his physical gifts. He’s hunting every switch in sight, showcasing a precocious step-back that was largely nonexistent in college. Barnes’s 0.93 points per isolation possession ranks better than LaMelo Ball, Jayson Tatum and Luka Dončić. He’s shooting nearly 49% on midrange attempts, the best mark among the 21 rookies with more than 15 attempts.

Barnes is emerging as a true three-level scorer, one whose jumper should only improve in the coming years with increased reps. Barnes could very well be the best player in the 2021 class when we look back in five years.

4. Cade Cunningham, Pistons

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Don’t confuse Detroit’s substantial struggles for a disappointing rookie campaign from the No. 1 pick. Cunningham has rebounded from a shaky start to average a respectable 15.4 points, six rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, and he’s looked downright brilliant in spurts as a lead playmaker. Cunningham recognizes crosscourt shooters with ease as he navigates the pick-and-roll, and he’s shooting a cool 40% from three since Thanksgiving. His calm and control—along with a valuable defensive impact—leads to an effective player on most nights.

The turnovers are bound to drop with added experience. The scoring outbursts will eventually come. Detroit fans should still feel more than comfortable with their No. 1 pick. Cunningham’s talent and preternatural cool should lead to a fruitful, potentially All-Star-filled career.

5. Josh Giddey, Thunder

Giddey became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple double last week, posting a 17-point, 13-rebound, 14-assist performance against the Mavericks. And frankly, Giddey’s superb night served as more of a confirmation of his talent than a revelation.

The 19-year-old has looked right at home in the NBA in his first year since playing in Australia’s National Basketball League, pairing an advanced playmaking feel with more serviceable defense than initial projections suggested. Giddey leads all rookies in assist percentage. He’s grabbing 18.4% of opponents’ misses, the second-best mark of all first-year players. The statistical profile in itself is impressive, though it’s the little things that seem to separate Giddey from many of his rookie peers. He’s already an expert at the hockey assist, and bigs who work to run the floor are consistently rewarded. Oklahoma City seems to firmly have its backcourt of the future on hand with Giddey alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

6. Chris Duarte, Pacers

Duarte hasn’t played since the calendar turned to 2022, but he holds his spot here on the back of his strong performance in his first 33 games. The 24-year-old may not sport the ceiling of those above him in our rankings, but his polished skill set should make him a valuable instant-offense guard for years to come. Duarte is shooting 42.1% on catch-and-shoot threes. He’s also developing a tricky two-man dance with Domantas Sabonis.

The Pacers currently feel like a franchise devoid of vision—Indiana should be one of the trade deadline’s most active teams—though they seem to have found a keeper with Duarte. A potential departure or two before March will only free up more room for the Oregon product to operate down the stretch.

7. Herb Jones, Pelicans

The No. 35 pick in the 2021 draft has emerged as a potential franchise anchor in New Orleans, making a marked defensive impact on a struggling Pelicans squad. Jones is one of the game’s more impressive on-ball defenders, hounding both quicker guards and larger wings with his 7' 0" wingspan. Jones ranks No. 6 among all players in deflections. His 48 steals lead all rookies, and only Evan Mobley has tallied more blocks.

It remains a question just how well Jones can fit alongside Brandon Ingram and (ideally) Zion Williamson given Jones’s current offensive limitations. But growth into even a passable shooter from the corner will help secure his NBA future as an impact player. For now, let’s choose to marvel at his defensive wizardry on a team desperately needing it.

Rookie Riser of the Week: Ayo Dosunmu, Bulls

The Bulls have been the most delightful story of the 2021–22 season, defying skeptics with a hellacious defense and the All-NBA turn from DeMar DeRozan. Chicago is chock-full of tough guards and wings, with lineups featuring DeRozan, Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball allowing just 98.5 points per 100 possessions. Ayo Dosunmu is fitting right in with the Bulls’s trio.

Dosunmu has done yeoman’s work filling in for both Caruso and Ball amid COVID-19 and injury absences, helping keep the Bulls atop the East alongside third-year guard Javonte Green. Dosunmu isn’t necessarily a threat from beyond the arc, and outside of transition opportunities, he’s not much of a threat as a scorer. But let’s not lose the forest for the trees. Dosunmu is filling his role with aplomb as the Bulls roll through the regular season.

Rookie Highlight of the Week: Evan Mobley, Cavaliers

We briefly touched on Mobley’s finger roll earlier, but this move deserves its own space. I mean seriously, how many guys in the league can pull this off? KD, Giannis and maybe a few others? Mobley takes off from the low block on the left side of the court, contorts his head around the backboard and uses every inch of his 7' 4" wingspan to pull off what has to be the layup of the year. Pardon the cross-sport reference, but I’m in full bloom love. Dreaming of what Mobley can become over the next decade is currently one of the most fun thought experiments in the sport.