NBA Rookie Rankings: Scottie Barnes Makes Leap in ROY Race

Breaking down the fiercest Rookie of the Year battle in recent memory. Plus; a look at the potential All-Rookie teams.

We’ve effectively come to a close on the rookie seasons for the class of 2021, and it’s safe to say this group met the preseason hype. Each of the top four picks showed flashes of All-NBA potential, and you can debate which of the quartet will be the best player for the next decade. Cade Cunningham could emerge as Luka-lite in Detroit. Jalen Green could very well bring the scoring title back to Houston. And the likely top finishers in the Rookie of the Year vote, Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes, are already powering a pair of playoff teams.

There’s more than just top-end talent in the 2021 class. Thirteen rookies posted at least two win shares this season. Eighteen players tallied at least 500 points. There are potential All-Stars outside the top four (paging Jonathan Kuminga) and a cast of contributors who should populate NBA rosters across the 2020s and beyond. We’ll wait a few years to make any comparisons to the historic classes in 1996 and 2003. But the influx of talent in the league this season is truly something to behold.

Let’s hand out some hardware to close the season with our Rookie of the Year ballot followed by the All-Rookie teams.

Rookie of the Year Vote

1. Scottie Barnes, Raptors

Barnes has trailed Mobley by most estimations for a substantial chunk of 2021–22, though he kept the race close enough to snag Rookie of the Year here in the final month. Barnes is averaging 18 points and 8.4 rebounds across his last 20 games. He sports a plus-4.1 net rating in March. He is one of four rookies since 2000 to average 15 points, seven rebounds and three assists per game, a crew that includes previous Rookies of the Year Luka Doncic, Ben Simmons and Blake Griffin. And while Mobley’s defensive impact is likely greater than Barnes’s, the advanced statistics paint a relatively clear picture overall. Barnes leads Mobley in true shooting percentage, PER, assist percentage and turnover rate. He’s generated more win shares and has a healthy edge in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric.

I’d likely be fine ignoring the advanced numbers and giving Mobley the award if Barnes didn’t finish with a flourish. But give credit to Toronto’s burgeoning star. His strong close to the season could very well result in a surprise honor.

2. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers

A second-place finish for Mobley is more a credit to Barnes than a criticism of Cleveland’s rookie. Mobley was an instrumental player in the Cavaliers’ return to the playoffs, emerging as a true defensive anchor within his first weeks in the league. Mobley is the best defender in his class. He’s among the top half-dozen rim protectors in the entire league. He pairs his shot-blocking instincts with light feet on the perimeter, a combination that could net multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards over the next decade.

Mobley’s maturity on the offensive end was a pleasant surprise. He has a soft touch around the foul line, and he sports a respectable 0.97 points per post-up possession. Mobley’s best offensive trait may be his vision, where his interior passing paired well with Jarrett Allen to create a crafty frontcourt duo. Pau Gasol and Mobley are the lone rookies since 2000 to average 2.5 assists and 1.5 blocks per game, a testament to Mobley’s precociousness as a rookie. He’s arguably still the favorite for Rookie of the Year despite Barnes’s late-season run.

3. Cade Cunningham, Pistons

Any doubts about Cunningham’s ability to be a leading man have been quieted at this point. He’s a creative floor general with a serious competitive streak, one whose proficiency at the rim helped off-set some shaky three-point numbers. Cunningham looked to briefly be making a run at this award in early March; like his budding rival in Green, his best play of the season came after the All-Star break. Cunningham still has an argument as the top player in the 2021 class, and I suspect a polling of front office personnel across the league would generate a similar sentiment. Ugly turnover totals and Detroit’s 23-win finish eliminated Cunningham from truly being in Rookie of the Year consideration, though he should begin to rack up the accolades sooner than later in the coming seasons.

Ken Blaze/USA TODAY Sports

All-Rookie First Team

Cade Cunningham, Pistons

Jalen Green, Rockets

Scottie Barnes, Raptors

Franz Wagner, Magic

Evan Mobley, Cavaliers

Sorting out the first-team ballot isn’t as messy as the Rookie of the Year race. Mobley, Barnes and Cunningham are all locks for a first-team selection, while Wagner has been perhaps the steadiest rookie in a dismal situation. The Michigan product shot at least 47% from the field in every month but November, and ranked third in scoring and ninth in assists among rookies. Orlando enters Friday limping to the finish amid a 3–TK stretch, but don’t blame Wagner. The Magic are plus-18 in minutes with Wagner on the floor since the All-Star break

As for our final spot, Green will sneak onto the first-team ballot after a torrid stretch to close the season. He’s up to 22.4 points per game since March 1 on 48/40/77 shooting splits, and his five-game streak of 30-plus points places him in elite company in league history. Green blows past defenders and gets to the corner faster than perhaps any player in the sport. His step-back jumper is a legitimate weapon. He’s in the nascent stages of creating an impossible problem for defenders, whose instinct to sag into the lane is increasingly punished. Extend the season another month and Houston’s latest sensation would be on our ballot above.

Green’s scoring prowess may only be matched by the belief in himself. When asked Sunday night what he learned about himself as a rookie, Green’s answer was brief, yet telling: “I’m a bucket.”

All-Rookie Second Team

Josh Giddey, Thunder

Bones Hyland, Nuggets

Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors

Alperen Sengun, Rockets

Herb Jones, Pelicans

Let’s start with some apologies for Ayo Dosunmu, Chris Duarte, Davion Mitchell and the other half-dozen-or-so players who had a case. Their potential inclusion further illustrates just how impressive the 2021 class is both in top-end talent and depth. Now onto the second-team honorees.

Giddey’s hip injury and subsequent absence removed him from first-team consideration, though he was perhaps my favorite rookie to watch this season. He sprinkled in flashes of brilliance with an advanced feel for operating an NBA offense in the half-court, and his low-key, Lonzo-esque style made for an easier fit alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Want a little more ceiling than what we’ve seen from Oklahoma City’s point guard? Perhaps Kuminga will be of interest. The Warriors’ wing sensation brings a major boost in athleticism and energy as a cutter and passing-lane destructor, and he’s more than the sum of his physical gifts. Kuminga is an effective trap-breaker when Draymond Green is off the floor, and he’s not a total non-shooter when left open beyond the arc. He remains the most likely bridge to Golden State’s next era.

Hyland narrowly edged out the aforementioned guards, with Dosunmu likely having the largest gripe. Why the inclusion of the Western Conference rookies? Hyland deserves recognition for his expanded role on a playoff team, one that was desperately searching for secondary scoring and playmaking throughout the season. The VCU product is averaging 13.7 points in 22.3 minutes per game since March 1, playing a major role in keeping Denver out of the play-in.

Houston’s center posted pretty shaky on-off numbers on a tanking squad, but Sengun’s selection here is more a confirmation of the eye test than anything. He’s a wizardly passer with a crafty post presence, and he has the size and recovery ability to become a plus defender in the coming years. 

We saved the best for last here with New Orleans’s second-round gem. Jones helped save the Pelicans from disaster as he played a major role on a depleted roster, keeping New Orleans in play-in contention before the team struck a deal for CJ McCollum. Is Jones a future All-Star? Highly unlikely. But I’d be surprised if he’s not a rotational player in the league when the calendar turns to 2030. Jones ranks No. 3 in both steals and deflections this season, not among rookies, but all players. He ended the year as a respectable 34% three-point shooter, and he generated hoards of free baskets for the Pelicans as a weak-side cutter. Jones is a major success story in a 2021 class full of them.