There are six teams on a bye week this week and a few teams on which the public is very high. With these two factors in play, there may be more overlap in lineups than usual, especially in cash games, which can lead to increased variance. In other words, one unique player has more power to determine whether you win or lose. In order to combat this variance, DFS players should consider the following courses of action:
Play a smaller portion of your overall bankroll than usual with a larger percentage of your money in play in GPPs. Overlap in cash lineups means that results are less likely to reflect skill level, and that increased variance can be capitalized on in games with unbalanced payout structures.
Choose less popular players, if you play high-volume head-to-head games. There is a monetary incentive to have a somewhat unique and slightly higher variance lineup in head-to-heads since a very high score will win more games. In 50/50s and double-ups, a lineup’s floor is much more important, since extra points over the cash line does not result in more money won.
Dabble in other slates. It’s suboptimal to diversify cash lineups simply for the sake of diversification, but in a week with relatively few games, playing multiple slates allows owners to get access to a wider player pool without forgoing expected value.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Carson Wentz ($7,900) vs 49ers
The Eagles are the biggest favorite of the week and their 29.5-point projected total is their highest of the season. According to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed ranking, just six teams are worse against quarterbacks than the 49ers. Only one quarterback with at least 100 attempts has a higher touchdown rate than Wentz this year, and San Francisco has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per attempt to opposing passers. With the third-most rushing yards among quarterbacks, Wentz’s rushing ability raises his ceiling and floor.
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Joe Mixon ($5,900) vs Colts
Cincinnati is favored by 10.5 this week, and over the past four weeks Mixon has accounted for 61% of the Bengals backfield touches, a touch rate bested by just 12 running backs during that span. Indianapolis ranks 25th or worse in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to every skill position and is the only defense to allow its opponents to exceed their Vegas-projected point total in six games this season.
A.J. Green ($8,600) vs Colts
Green is 4for4’s top-projected wide receiver value and he has the best odds to hit cash value, according to 4fo4’s Leverage Scores. Only three players have accounted for a larger portion of their team's targets than Green this year, and Indianapolis has allowed the most yards to opposing wide receivers this season, including three 100-yard games.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,900) vs Raiders
Taylor is the top-projected quarterback value of the week. Buffalo hosts a Raiders defense allowing the third-most fantasy points and yards per pass attempt this season, and Oakland may be without starting cornerback David Amerson this week. Taylor is averaging more six rushing attempts and nearly 30 rushing yards per game, which helps his already high floor and ceiling.