You’ve probably been busy getting your Eddie Lacy on this week, so here to get you up to speed are five things to know before setting lineups for Week 12. (And if you didn’t get a chance to catch up on what went down in Week 11, be sure to check out Raybon’s Review, a weekly article I do over at 4for4 which analyzes the winning Millionaire Maker and Sunday Million lineups as well as other key DFS takeaways.)
1. Russell Wilson has accounted for 82.8% of the Seahawks’ total yards and all but one of their offensive touchdowns
In tournaments, you’ll sometimes see DFS players stack a team’s quarterback with its running back to capture most or all of its offensive production—but Wilson has essentially been a one-man stack. Not only does he lead all players in fantasy points scored this season, but since Seattle’s Week 6 bye, Wilson has all but lapped the quarterback field, outscoring all quarterbakc by more than six DraftKings points and 5 FanDuel points per week. It’s fitting that Wilson has actually accounted for more than 100% of Seattle’s 2,797 passing yards, as he’s thrown for 2,801 while punter Jon Ryan threw a pass that lost four yards. He should continue to roll in against a 49ers defense ranked 20th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
2. The Rams will be missing 27% of their post-bye target share this week
After blazing out of the gate with a two-touchdown day in Week 9, Robert Woods had at least t1- targets from Jared Goff in both of the next two games, delivering 16 catches, 252 yards, and two scores over that span. But with Woods, whose 70.3 receiving yards per game ranks 12th in the NFL, now nursing a multi-week shoulder injury, Goff will have to look elsewhere. Goff’s first read is usually to the slot-receiver side, so the most likely beneficiary of Woods’s absence is Cooper Kupp, who has a plus-matchup in the slot with Kenny Vaccaro, a safety who plays slot corner and is returning from a groin injury. Scheme-wise, Sean McVay wouldn’t be great at what he does if he was easy to predict, but other possibilities include altering route concepts to get Sammy Watkins more involved; featuring tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett more, as he did in Week 5 when they combined for 106 yards on 11 targets; or simply leaning even more on Todd Gurley, who is fourth among running backs with 425 receiving yards.
3. Antonio Brown has scored 70% of his career receiving touchdowns at home
On last week’s Steelers-Titans broadcast, Tony Romo explained that the Steelers offense is better at home because they can better communicate before the snap—a sentiment backed up by Brown (and Ben Roethlisberger’s) lopsided home/road splits. In his career, Brown has scored 39 of his 56 receiving touchdowns, and averages better than one yard per reception more (14.1 to 12.8), at Heinz Field. The Packers third-worst ranking in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers puts Brown in a great position to continue that trend.
4. Jason McCourty shadowed A.J. Green when the Browns and Bengals met in Week 4
This has been a renaissance season for McCourty, who is flourishing in a Gregg Williams scheme that usually gives him safety help over the top. McCourty’s clamps have been strong: He has picked off three passes while allowing only one touchdown, and opposing passers have a 44.5 rating when targeting him, per Player Profiler. Green only caught two passes against McCourty in Week 4, but did manage to escape McCourty’s shadow and score a touchdown from the slot to finish with a respectable 5-63-1 line. Green has a high ceiling every time he steps on the field, but his floor this week is lower than you would think for a receiver going against the Browns.
5. There are seven teams favored by at least a touchdown at home
It can be slim pickings some weeks with defense/special teams, but a team that is a large home favorite makes for an ideal pick at the position, and the Patriots (vs. Dolphins), Eagles (vs. Bears), Bengals (vs. Browns), Falcons (vs. Buccaneers), Chiefs (vs. Bills), Steelers (vs. Packers), and Ravens (vs. Texans) all fit the bill this week. What’s more, none of their opponents are ranked better than 15th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to defense/special teams.