- Many of the league's top fantasy quarterbacks have tough matchups in Week 14, but not all of them do. One in the latter group leads our Week 14 DFS values.
For the second straight week, the Steelers aren’t on the main slate. Without Le’Veon Bell or Antonio Brown in the player pool, and other studs like Julio Jones and Mark Ingram already done for the week, there are few must-plays at the top of pricing. Add in a couple “free squares,” and roster construction is wide open.
This also figures to be one of the lowest-scoring weeks of the year, with no team on the main slate projected to score more than 26 points, or favored by more than six points. Outside of a couple players, ownership figures to be relatively flat across the board.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Alex Smith ($8,200) vs Raiders
With Matt Nagy taking over play-calling duties for Kansas City last week, the Chiefs scored 30 points for the first time since Week 7, when they did it against these very Raiders. Before last week, that game against Oakland was also the last time that Smith threw for more than 300 yards. The Chiefs are favored by four at home and projected for 26 points, the highest implied point total of any team on the main slate. Oakland ranks 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, when adjusted for strength of schedule (aFPA), and only seven defenses have allowed a higher touchdown rate through the air over the last six weeks. The Chiefs have opted to throw often on the doorstep of the end zone, owning the second-highest passing rate inside the red zone this season.
Giovani Bernard ($5,100) vs Bears
With Joe Mixon unlikely to play because of a concussion, Bernard will take over as the featured back in a game where Cincinnati is favored by six at home. Mixon wasn’t injured until after pricing came out, so Bernard’s salary isn’t adjusted for his expanded role, and that’s almost always worth attacking. Mixon’s accounted for 41.6% of the Bengals touches over the last six weeks before his injury, a touch share that trailed just Le’Veon Bell during that span. Once Mixon left the game last week, Bernard played every snap, so his volume is almost sure to outpace his asking price, which is why he is 4for4’s top overall value on the main slate.
Lamar Miller ($5,800) vs 49ers
The Texans are favored by 2.5 at home, and this has the potential to be a sneaky high-scoring game. Both of these offenses are among the fastest-paced in the league, and the over/under in this game has moved up 1.5 points since the line came out, the biggest increase of any game thus far. Only eight players have seen a higher percentage of team touches than Miller over the past six weeks, and San Francisco ranks 31st in running back aFPA. Miller ranks 11th among all running backs in receiving yards, and no defense has allowed more reception yards to running backs than San Francisco.
Josh Gordon ($5,500) vs Packers
Gordon is only priced as the WR20 on the main slate after racking up 11 targets and accounting for 34.4% of the Browns targets in Week 13, the seventh-highest target share of any player in the week. He’ll face a Packers defense on Sunday ranked last in wide receiver aFPA. Green Bay has allowed four 100-yard receivers over its last six games, and only one team has given up more receptions of 15+ yards this season.