- Large spreads and high projected point totals for the league's best teams will lead many DFS players to a stars-and-scrubs approach in Week 16. These four players can provide a major return on your investment.
Three teams on this week’s main slate are favored by at least 10 points, with another four favored by nearly a touchdown. There are also three teams projected by Vegas to score at least 28 points, opening the door for multiple stud players to have huge games. With these factors in play, value is slanted towards some of the more expensive players on the slate. Owners will likely try to roster as many of these high-priced plays as possible, leading to an unbalanced number of lineups implementing a stars-and-scrubs approach to roster construction. Anyone in a large-field tournament might combat this by targeting players in the middle pricing tier, leading to a unique lineup build.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Cam Newton ($6,800) vs. Buccaneers
Newton is projected as 4for4’s top value at his position and he’s in the middle of arguably the best stretch of his career, in terms of passing efficiency. Over the last six weeks, no quarterback has a higher touchdown rate, and only two signal callers have scored more fantasy points per pass attempt—and that doesn’t take into account his rushing numbers. Cam is averaging 43 rushing yards per game this season, essentially spotting his owners one passing touchdown worth of fantasy points each week. Carolina is projected to score more than 28 points against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the most passing yards in the league and seventh most rushing yards to quarterbacks.
Jarvis Landry ($6,800) at Chiefs
Landry has traditionally been a player better suited for full PPR sites, but his involvement near the goal line this year makes him a great play on FanDuel, which favors touchdown scoring. Only two players have seen more targets inside the 10-yard line this season, and no team throws at a higher rate inside the red zone than the Dolphins, mitigating any concerns owners might have about Miami’s low projected point total. WIth Jay Cutler in the lineup, Landry is an even safer play—he has averaged 13.7 FanDuel points per game with Cutler, which would make him the WR4 over the full season, had Cutler played every game.
Michael Thomas ($7,600) vs. Falcons
There hasn’t been a more consistent wide receiver this season than Thomas, who has had fewer than eight targets in just one game this season. Thomas ranks eighth in the league in team target share, but it’s his recent involvement inside the 20 gives him the upside to help owners run away with the week. Over the last six weeks, only five players have seen more red-zone targets than Drew Brees’s No. 1 receiver. In a week where New Orleans is projected to score 29 points, a multi-touchdown game is well within Thomas’s range of potential outcomes.
Eric Ebron ($3,700) at Bengals
There aren’t many clear-cut, cheap values this week, and slates without many affordable plays are often the best weeks to punt at tight end, since it is inherently the most volatile fantasy slot on a weekly basis. Only five tight ends are averaging more targets per game than Ebron since Week 10, and he has led the Lions in targets in consecutive weeks. Detroit faces a Bengals defense that ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, when adjusted for strength of schedule, and may be without up to five starters on defense.