Championship Week DFS Values
On a slate with just two games, any player that sees significant snaps is worthy of consideration in DFS lineups. In order to build a roster that can top the leaderboard, owners will have to focus heavily on ownership and finding one or two under-the-radar plays, and less on pure value. Even projected workload takes somewhat of a back seat to likley ownership on a slate with so few options and lineups that will look very similar across the board.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
FanDuel
Rex Burkhead ($6,000) vs. Jaguars
According to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric (aFPA), the Jaguars rank 24th against running backs, the lowest ranking for a defense against any skill position this week. In fact, Jacksonville’s ranking against running backs is the only spot where a defense ranks in the bottom 10 against a position, making it the most glaring matchup to expose on the slate. The recent success of James White and Dion Lewis may have some owners shying away from using Rex Burkhead fresh off of an injury, but when all three of these backs were healthy, Burkhead was the clear RB2. From Weeks 10 through 15, Burkhead saw 37% of New England’s backfield touches to White’s 15%, including seven more touches inside the 10-yard line, and also had the backfield lead in targets over that span. Rostering any combination of two Patriots running backs is a great way to make a unique lineup this week, but Burkhead stands out as the top value.
Kyle Rudolph ($6,100) at Eagles
Rob Gronkowski is the clear top tight end from a projection standpoint this week, but an argument can be made that Kyle Rudolph has the most touchdown equity at the position. Only one tight end saw a higher percentage of his team’s targets in the red zone than Rudolph this season, and teams passed against the Eagles at the fourth-highest rate inside the 20 this year. Additionally, no defense playing this weekend has allowed a higher red-zone touchdown rate through the air.
Click here for T.J.'s full breakdown of the FanDuel Championship Week slate.
DraftKings
Jay Ajayi ($5,200) vs. Vikings
After throwing the ball at the fourth-highest rate in neutral game script over the final six weeks of the season, the Eagles shifted to a much more run-heavy game plan in the first playoff game, keeping the ball on the ground 52% of the time. That shift to led to 18 touches last week for Ajayi, the most for the running back since joining Philadelphia. Minnesota is a dominant defense, but Ajayi stands out as the Eagle most likely to shine in what figures to be a slow, grind-it-out game where the Eagles will look to hide Nick Foles.
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Click here for Chris Raybon's full breakdown of the DraftKings Championship Week slate.
Jarius Wright ($3,000) vs. Eagles
Wright isn’t going to pop in any projection models but he is the type of cheap, low-owned play that is often key to unlocking a two-game slate. In one of the more surprising moves of last week, Minnesota moved Adam Thielen to the outside, effectively handing the starting slot receiver role to Wright, who ended up playing his most snaps of the season with six targets to show for it. Philadelphia ranks 21st in wide receiver aFPA, the only matchup besides the Jaguars against running backs where a defense ranks outside the top 20. The Eagles have allowed five receivers to gain more than 100 yards in a game this season, and four of those players have lined up primarily in the slot.
