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  • Since 2014, road teams that beat the spread by at least 21 points in their previous game are 4-19 against the spread in the first half of the season. That could spell trouble for Indianapolis in Oakland this weekend.
By Scott Gramling
October 27, 2018

Starting with a 9:30 ET London game between the Eagles and Jags, football fans have a full-day viewing slate lined up for Sunday. Where are Week 8's smartest gambling plays?

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

9:30 a.m. ET in London

• Jacksonville is 8–3 against the spread as an underdog under head coach Doug Marrone.

• Over the total is 8–1 in the past nine games Philadelphia has played against AFC South opponents.

• Teams coming off back-to-back games of scoring fewer than 10 points are 15-3 ATS since the start of 2014.

Side: Jaguars (+3)

Confidence Level: Very High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

Total: Under 43

Confidence Level: Moderate


Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

1:00 p.m. ET

• Carolina is 6-0-1 against the spread over its past seven games against AFC opponents.

• Over the total is 29–12 in games Carolina has played under head coach Ron Rivera against teams with winning records.

• The Panthers are 8-0 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in home games over the past calendar year.

Side: Panthers (+2.5)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Over 44

Confidence Level: Very High


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5)

1:00 p.m.

• Pittsburgh is 1–6 against the spread when coming off a bye since the start of the 2011 season.

• Under the total is 10–5 in games Pittsburgh has played against Cleveland since the start of the 2011 season.

• Three of Cleveland’s four losses this season have either gone to overtime or been lost on a last-minute field goals.

Side: Browns (+8.5)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Under 49

Confidence Level: Extremely High


Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3)

1:00 p.m.

• Seattle is 5-13-1 against the spread when coming off a bye since the start of the 1999 season.

• Over the total is 35–22 in games Seattle has played as an underdog under head coach Pete Carroll.

• Detroit’s five-game ATS win streak includes straight-up home wins over Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

Side: Lions (-3)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Over 49

Confidence Level: Low


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

1:00 p.m.

• Kansas City is 12-1 against the spread when facing an AFC West opponent since the start of October 2016.

• Under the total is 6–1 in Kansas City home games against teams that allow 350 or more yards per game since the start of 2016.

• Kansas City is 6-0 straight up and against the spread when facing Denver over the past three calendar years.

Side: Chiefs (-9.5)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Under 53.5

Confidence Level: High


New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-8)

1:00 p.m.

• Chicago is 1-8 against the spread when coming off a game in which the team gained 400 or more yards since the start of 2016.

• Under the total is 7–4 in games Chicago has played at home since the start of last season.

• Chicago is just 4-6 straight up and 3-7 against the spread as a favorite since the start of the 2016 season.

Side: Jets (+8)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Under 43

Confidence Level: Moderate


Washington Redskins (-1) at New York Giants

1:00 p.m.

• The Giants are 1-8 against the spread in games where the line is between +3 and -3 since the start of last season.

• Under the total is 9–3 in games between Washington and the Giants since the start of the 2012 season.

• This is a tough spot for New York coming off a short week and having dealt two defensive starters—CB Eli Apple and DT Damon Harrison—since Tuesday.

Side: Redskins (-1)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Under 43.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

1:00 p.m.

• Tampa Bay is 0-7-1 against the spread in games played during the month of October over the past two calendar years.

• Under the total is 7–0 in Cincinnati games against teams averaging 90 or fewer rushing yards per game since the start of 2016.

• Tampa Bay has allowed an average of more than 40 points per game over the team’s three 2018 road games.

Side: Bengals (-3.5)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 54.5

Confidence Level: High


Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Oakland Raiders

4:05 p.m.

• Oakland is 5-1 against the spread when coming off a bye since the start of the 2012 season.

• Over the total is 8–0 in October road games Indianapolis has played since the start of the 2016 season.

• Road teams playing prior to the midway point of the season that are coming off a game in which they beat the spread by more than 21 points are 4-19 straight up since the start of the 2014 season.

Side: Raiders (+3)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Over 51

Confidence Level: High


San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals

4:25 p.m.

• San Francisco is 7–3 against the spread when facing Arizona on the road since the start of the 2008 season.

• Under the total is 6–2 in games Arizona has played against San Francisco since the start of the 2014 season.

• Byron Leftwich makes his debut as the Cards’ new offensive coordinator after Mike McCoy was fired last week.

Side: 49ers (-1.5)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 41.5

Confidence Level: Very High


Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (-9)

4:25 p.m.

• The Rams are 2-8-2 against the spread when facing a conference opponent at home over the past two calendar years.

• Over the total is 8–1 in road games Green Bay has played against teams with winning records since the start of the 2016 season.

• Green Bay has gone 9-2 against the spread when coming off a regular-season bye under head coach Mike McCarthy.

Side: Packers (+9)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Over 56.5

Confidence Level: High

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HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)