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  • Neither of the NFL's Northern California teams have been playing well, but Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has thrived as an underdog in the past.
By Scott Gramling
October 29, 2018

Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Thu. 11/1, 8:20 pm ET

Three things you need to know before betting on Raiders-49ers:

1. The NFL’s first November game features a pair of teams that each failed to win a game during the month of October, as the 1-7 49ers host the 1-6 Raiders. While San Francisco lost 18-15 at Arizona in Week 8, Oakland fell 42-28 at home to Indianapolis. A betting system that favors the Raiders is the fact that teams that are being outscored by an average of 10 or more points per game are 5-0 against the spread since the start of 2016 when coming off a game in which they allowed 40 or more points. Oakland also appears to be facing its fellow Bay Area team at the right time. San Francisco is not only riding a six-game losing skid with backup quarterback C.J. Beathard, but the team has gone 2-11 against the spread in games played between Weeks 5 through 9 since the start of 2016. The 49ers were laying three points at Arizona last week, and NFL teams coming off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are just 1-7 against the spread in November games since the start of 2016.

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Opening Lines for Every Week 9 NFL Game

2. The 49ers have been woeful as a favorite in recent seasons, going 1-12 against the spread while losing eight games outright over the past 13 times they’ve been giving points dating back to the 2014 season. The lone time the 49ers covered over this span of favorite futility was a 34-13 drubbing at the Rams in Week 17 last season when Los Angeles rested all of its star players in preparation for the playoffs. Sean Mannion was the Rams’ starting quarterback in that game, while the Niners countered with Jimmy Garoppolo, who threw for 292 yards and pair of touchdowns. Since Garoppolo tore his ACL in Week 3 this season, San Francisco has scored an average of just 20 points per game with Beathard under center. With those five losses, Beathard is now 1-9 as a starter in his NFL career. That lone victory occurred last season against the New York Giants, who are currently the only team in the league with a record as bad as San Francisco's 1-7 mark.

3. The Raiders appear to be superior at football’s most important position, as Derek Carr has completed 74% of his pass attempts for 654 yards, four touchdowns and only one interception over his past three games. Carr has gone 16-11 against the spread (59.3%) as an underdog over his five-year career. In his one career start in this series in 2014, Carr went 22-of-28 for 254 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in Oakland’s 24-13 win over visiting San Francisco. The 49ers have gone 5-14 against the spread since the start of the 2016 season, which includes a 2-11 ATS mark in Santa Clara when coming off a loss. The 49ers have lost by an average score of 31 to 20 over those 13 games.

Pick: Oakland +3

Confidence Level: High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

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