• Tennessee’s struggling offense faces a Dallas team that features one of only two NFL defenses allowing fewer than 18 points per game.
By Scott Gramling
November 01, 2018

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6)

Mon. 11/5, 8:15 p.m. ET

Four things you need to know before betting on Titans-Cowboys:

1. The Cowboys will try to remain perfect at home when they host the reeling Titans on Monday night. Tennessee’s offense, which mustered a total of 31 points over three games in a winless October, faces a Dallas defense that has not allowed more than 24 points in any game this season. The Cowboys have allowed only 44 points over their three 2018 home games, the most recent of which was a 40-7 Week 6 drubbing of Jacksonville. Tennessee, meanwhile, managed only nine points against that same Jacksonville team three weeks earlier. The Titans did win that game 9-6, which is the team’s only win over its past six away from home (road or London).

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2. One of the primary reasons for the Cowboys’ success at home has been the team’s ability to take care of the football—Dallas has yet to turn the ball over in a home game this season. There’s a good chance that streak will continue, as Tennessee has gone six straight games without forcing more than one turnover. Dallas is 6-1 straight up (4-2-1 against the spread) since the start of the 2016 season when facing an opponent that’s averaging only one forced turnover or less.

3. The strength of the Dallas offense is a ground attack that’s averaging 136.9 rushing yards per game (fourth in NFL) on 4.9 yards per carry (third). The numbers at home have been even more impressive, as Dallas has averaged 176 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry while averaging 32:14 of possession time per game. Leading the way is running back Ezekiel Elliott, who is averaging 112 rushing yards per game at home on 5.1 yards per carry. Meanwhile, visiting opponents have averaged a paltry 65 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry with 27:46 time of possession this season at AT&T Stadium.

4. The Cowboys are 19-9 against the spread when facing an AFC opponent since Jason Garrett took over as head coach in 2010, which includes a 5-1-1 ATS mark (6-1 straight up) versus AFC South teams. Garrett has also figured out how to rally his team after tough defeats, like the one Dallas suffered prior to its Week 8 bye when it lost 20-17 at rival Washington. Under Garrett, the Cowboys are 7-0 straight up after having lost on the road in their previous game by three points or fewer. Dallas is also 8-2-1 against the spread in Weeks 5 through 9 since the start of the 2016 season.

Pick: Dallas -6

Confidence Level: Moderate (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

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