- Finding the best bang for your DFS buck in Week 9.
There are only 10 games on this week’s DFS main slate, and four of the 20 available offenses are projected by Vegas to score at least 29 points. According to 4for4’s DFS ownership projections, those four offenses will produce the most popular plays of the week. With so many value plays concentrated on just a few teams, managing player shares is a matter of risk aversion—owners looking for upside should favor multiple players from the same game or team, while those looking to maximize their floor might avoid stacking in their lineups.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Cam Newton ($8,600) vs. Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has been bad all around on defense this year, but they have been especially atrocious against quarterbacks. Allowing the most fantasy points per pass attempt, 4for4 ranks the Buccaneers last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing passers. FanDuel’s scoring system favors touchdowns, and Newton has arguably the highest scoring equity of any player on the slate. Carolina’s 30.5-point Vegas projection is five points above its per game average and no Week 9 starter has accounted for a higher percentage of his team’s touchdowns than Newton. Add in Cam’s 44 yards per game on the ground and the fact that he’s the only quarterback to score at least 18 FanDuel points in every game that he’s played, and there isn’t a quarterback with a safer floor.
Latavius Murray ($6,700) vs. Lions
Dalvin Cook returned to practice this week, but it was in a limited fashion and he is still unlikely to play in Week 9 as of this writing. Over the last three weeks, only four players have seen more total touches than Murray, who’s accounted for almost 40% of the Vikings touches in that span. As 5.5-point home favorites, game script should set up Murray for nearly 20 touches against a Lions defense that has allowed the most total yards per game to running backs this season.
Mark Ingram ($5,000) vs. Rams
The Saints-Rams game has an over/under at 60 with a spread of just 1.5. If that game total holds, it will be the highest closing projected point total since 2004. In other words, every relevant player will have a ton of fantasy opportunity. While Alvin Kamara and Ingram are priced within $600 of one another on FanDuel, the gap on DraftKings is more $2,000. Since ingram’s return from suspension, only four teams have run at a higher rate in neutral game script than the Saints, and this is one of the best line matchups for any running back in Week 9. New Orleans has the third-best offensive line according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric, while the Rams defense ranks in the bottom-third of the league in the same category.
Courtland Sutton ($3,900) vs. Texans
A sudden change in depth charts after salaries are released is one of the most obvious ways to find value in DFS. WIth Demaryius Thomas now a Houston Texan, Sutton will see starter reps against a Houston defense that ranks 25th in wide receiver aFPA. Thomas leaves behind more than 20% of Denver’s target share, and because of Houston’s banged-up secondary safety Natrell Jamerson will be forced into coverage against Sutton for much of the game.