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  • In the Colts and Texans, the AFC South features two of Week 11's best bets against the spread.
By Scott Gramling
November 18, 2018

The Chiefs-Rams tilt on Monday night is the Week 11 headliner, but Sunday's slate features plenty of intriguing contests, too. Here are your betting plays for the afternoon games.

Carolina Panthers (-4.5) at Detroit Lions

1:00 p.m. ET

• Carolina is 2-8-1 against the spread over its past 11 games as a road favorite.

• Over the total is 3-0 in games Detroit has played at home against Carolina since the start of the 2005 season.

• NFL road teams are 0-4 against the spread when coming off a road loss since the start of this month.

Side: Lions (+4.5)

Confidence Level: Moderate (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

Total: Over 49.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

1:00 p.m.

• Dallas is 10-2 against the spread when coming off a game in which the team gained 400 or more total yards since the start of the 2016.

• Over the total is 15-7 in games Atlanta has played as a home favorite since the start of the 2016 season.

• Atlanta was gashed for 211 rushing yards by Cleveland last Sunday, and the Dallas run game presents a more formidable challenge than what the Falcons saw in Cleveland.

Side: Cowboys (+3)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Over 49.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

1:00 p.m.

• Indianapolis is 8-2 against the spread in home games played against Tennessee since the start of the 2008 season.

• Under the total is 7-3 in games Tennessee has played on the road against Indianapolis since the start of the 2008 season.

• Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread when facing the Titans in his career.

Side: Colts (-1.5)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Over 51

Confidence Level: Very High


Houston Texans (-3) at Washington Redskins

1:00 p.m.

• Houston is 4-0 against the spread under head coach Bill O’Brien when coming off a bye week.

• Under the total is 10-4 in games Houston has played following a bye week since 2004.

• The big mismatch in this one would appear to be Houston’s front seven against a Redskins offensive line that’s been decimated by injuries with left tackle Trent Williams out along with starting guards Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao.

Side: Texans (-3)

Confidence Level: Extremely High

Total: Under 42

Confidence Level: Moderate


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-2.5)

1:00 p.m.

• The road team is 4-0 against the spread in games the Giants have played against Tampa Bay since 2008.

• Under the total is 24-6 past the midway point of the season since the start of 2014 when the home team has a win percentage of less than or equal to 25% and the road has a losing record.

• The Giants are 2-9 against the spread since the start of last season in games in which the spread is between +3 and -3.

Side: Buccaneers (+2.5)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Under 52.5

Confidence Level: Very High


Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

1:00 p.m.

• Jacksonville is 8-3 against the spread in games played against Pittsburgh since the start of the 2002 season.

• Under the total is 11-2 in games Pittsburgh has played after a win by 14 or more points under head coach Mike Tomlin.

• The Jaguars are 8-0 against the spread when facing an AFC North opponent over the past four calendar years.

Side: Jaguars (+5)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Under 46.5

Confidence Level: High


Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)

4:05 p.m.

• Denver is 5-2 against the spread in road games played against the Chargers since the start of the 2011 season.

• Under the total is 5-0 in games Denver has played on the road against the Chargers since the start of the 2013 season.

• The Chargers have averaged just 17 points per game versus the Broncos since the start of the 2014 season.

Side: Broncos (+7)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 46

Confidence Level: Extremely High


Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)

4:05 p.m.

• Arizona is 5-9 against the spread when facing an AFC team since the start of the 2015 season.

• Under the total is 7-0 in games Oakland has played against NFC teams since the start of last season.

• The Cardinals are 1-4 at home this season (having beaten only the 49ers) with a point differential of -55.

Side: Raiders (+5.5)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Under 41

Confidence Level: High


Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

4:25 p.m.

• New Orleans is 9-2 against the spread following three or more consecutive wins since the start of last season.

• Over the total is 7-1 in games Philadelphia has played as a road underdog under head coach Doug Pederson.

• The Eagles are 0-3 (against the spread and straight up) this season versus teams that currently have winning records.

Side: Saints (-7.5)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Over 56.5

Confidence Level: High

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HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)