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  • Minnesota has a winning record, but the Vikings have yet to beat an opponent that currently has one too. How will they fare this weekend in New England?
By Scott Gramling
November 28, 2018

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (-6)

Sun. 12/2, 4:25 p.m. ET

Three things you need to know before betting on Vikings-Patriots:

1. A pair of teams coming off victories over divisional rivals meet on Sunday afternoon when the Vikings visit the Patriots. Minnesota is coming off three straight games versus NFC North opponents, sandwiching home wins over Detroit and Green Bay around a road loss in Chicago. New England emerged from its bye week with a convincing 27-13 road win over the Jets. The Patriots racked up a season-high 215 rushing yards in that win and now face a Vikings team that has allowed 230 rushing yards over its past two games. New England is 23-10-1 against the spread during the Bill Belichick era, which began in 2000, when coming off a game in which the team rushed for at least 175 yards.

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2. The Patriots enter this one having won 10 straight regular season home games. They’ve covered the spread in all but one of those games (a three-point victory as a 3.5-point favorite versus Kansas City) while winning seven of the 10 by at least two touchdowns. Regardless of venue, the Patriots have gone 14-4 against the spread (15-3 straight up) over the past 18 instances that the team has been favored by at least five points. While Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has won just 12 of 35 road starts in his NFL career, New England quarterback Tom Brady has won 112 of his 131 career home starts.

3. One of the strongest betting systems that applies to this game is NFL home favorites having gone 29-7-1 against the spread in non-conference games since the start of the 2009 season when coming off a double-digit win over a division rival. While the Vikings do come into this one with a winning record, Minnesota has yet to beat a team this season that currently is .500 or better. The team’s six victories have come against the 49ers (2-9), Eagles (5-6), Cardinals (2-9), Jets (3-8), Lions (4-7), and Packers (4-6-1), who have a combined .311 winning percentage. The Patriots, who have four victories this season versus teams that currently have winning records (Texans, Colts, Chiefs, and Bears), are 16-6 against the spread since the start of 2016 when facing an opponent with a winning record.

Pick: Patriots -6

Confidence Level: Moderate (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

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