NFL Playoff Picture and Draft Order Ahead of Week 17

The Bills have won the AFC East for the first time since 1995, throttling the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football and sweeping the team for the first time in the Bill Belichick era.

While the Patriots were out of playoff contention a week ago, victim to a glut of high-profile opt-outs before the season, it was somewhat symbolic to see Belichick spending a long time at midfield congratulating Sean McDermott after the game. There are a lot of reasons why New England did not win the division for the 12th straight time, but one of them is that he was finally confronted with a team building a sound organization; a legitimate adversary. Through the years, most of Belichick’s contenders in the division have so obviously been destined to burn out fast and bright. Rex Ryan and his star-studded Jets come to mind.

This is different. The Bills are one of the best coached teams in football. They are making incredibly wise roster-building decisions and, based on the move to acquire Stefon Diggs, have such a better pulse on their team than the slew of outside voices (myself included) who panned the deal, thinking that Josh Allen could never pacify a target-needy receiver like Diggs.

Brian Fluharty/USA TODAY Sports

Look at the Bills now. Diggs leads the league in receptions and targets. Allen, in another year, might be a legitimate MVP contender. McDermott, one of the least discussed head coaches in the league, may also be among the fraternity’s brightest stars. Buffalo, according to the statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight, has a 14% chance of winning the Super Bowl, behind only the Chiefs, Saints and Packers. If 2020 taught us anything, especially as we prepare to welcome a new swath of head coaches into the NFL, it’s to reserve judgement immediately. These Bills were coming all along, but some of us (again, guy who picked them to go 7-9 here) weren’t smart enough to see it.

Without further ado, let’s get into the playoff field.

Here is what the playoff picture looks like at this exact moment…

AFC

1. Kansas City
2. Buffalo
3. Pittsburgh
4. Tennessee
5. Miami
6. Baltimore
7. Cleveland

NFC

1. Green Bay
2. New Orleans
3. Seattle
4. Washington
5. Tampa Bay
6. Los Angeles
7. Chicago

What can happen this weekend:

(This is sans ties, by the way. A meat and potatoes look at what is most likely to occur throughout the weekend. As always, thanks to our friends at NFL playoff scenarios for the assist).

• In the NFC East…

Washington clinches a playoff berth if they beat the Eagles in Philadelphia

The Giants clinch the division and a playoff berth if Washington loses to the Eagles and the Giants beat the Cowboys.

The Cowboys clinch the division and a playoff berth if Washington loses to the Eagles and the Cowboys beat the Giants.

• Elsewhere in the conference…

The Rams hold on to their playoff spot with a win over the Cardinals, though they will not have Jared Goff (thumb) under center. They can also reach the playoffs if the Bears lose to the Packers.

The Cardinals sneak into the playoffs with a win over The Rams.

The Bears remain in the playoff field with a win over the Packers, or a Cardinals loss to the Rams.

• In the AFC…

The Titans will clinch a playoff spot and a division title with a win over the Texans in Houston. They can also clinch a division title with a Colts loss to Jacksonville and can clinch a playoff spot with losses by either Baltimore (@ Cincinnati), Miami (@ Buffalo) or Indianapolis (vs. Jacksonville).

The Dolphins get into the playoffs with a win over the Bills in Buffalo or losses by Baltimore, Cleveland (vs. Pittsburgh) or Indianapolis.

The Ravens get into the playoffs by beating the Bengals, or a Browns loss to the Steelers, or a Colts loss to the Jaguars.

The Browns reach the playoffs by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers. If they lose, they would need the Colts to also lose to the Jaguars, or the Titans to lose to the Texans in conjunction with wins from the Ravens and Dolphins.

NFL draft order:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1–14)
2. New York Jets (2–13)
3. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans, 4–11)
4. Atlanta Falcons (4–11)
5. Cincinnati Bengals (4–10–1)
6. Philadelphia Eagles (4-10-1)
7. Detroit Lions (5–10)
8. New York Giants (5–10)
9. Carolina Panthers (5–10)
10. Denver Broncos (6–9)
11. Dallas Cowboys (6–9)
12. L.A. Chargers (6–9)
13. Minnesota Vikings (6–9)
14. New England Patriots (6–9)
15. San Francisco 49ers (6–9)