The Ravens’ Decision on How to Tag Lamar Jackson Will Impact the Whole QB Market
More MMQB: Bears Explain Why They Are Being Patient With Likely Trade for No. 1 Pick | Daniel Jones Deal With Giants Might Be Within Reach | Six From Saturday: Florida Coach Billy Napier Dishes on QB Prospect Anthony Richardson
You’ve heard it from me, by now—whether Baltimore puts the exclusive or nonexclusive tag on Lamar Jackson, which will determine Jackson’s availability, will certainly have an impact on the quarterback market. And so one more time, here’s the way the decision on which tag to use will shape Jackson’s immediate future.
If the Ravens use the exclusive franchise tag, Jackson is effectively off the market. The price on it, as it stands right now (and this can fluctuate through the offseason because it’s based on 2023 numbers), is $45.46 million. If the Ravens intend to keep Jackson, that figure shouldn’t faze them. It’d put the cost of two tags at just over $100 million. And if we presume a new deal would be more than $50 million per year, anyway, well, the exclusive tag would simply frame the contract in that area. That said, it could also upset Jackson, and would make him harder to trade.
Jackson will likely receive the exclusive franchise tag before Tuesday's 4 p.m. ET deadline.
Mitch Stringer/USA TODAY Sports
If the Ravens use the nonexclusive tag, things would get interesting. The price under that tag would be $32.42 million, but, if you presume someone would sign him to an offer sheet, that’s not that relevant. Remember, the one commonality between the fully guaranteed contracts quarterbacks have signed—Kirk Cousins (in 2018) and Deshaun Watson (last year)—was that they happened in large part because there were multiple bidders, as there would be in this scenario. The Ravens could do this to get another team to write the contract for them. And that’s where the element of a fully guaranteed deal comes in—it would be the way you’d try to make sure the Ravens wouldn’t match. Letting Jackson go would bring two first-round picks back to Baltimore. The Ravens could also match, and then work out a trade with the team signing him. Or, of course, just match and keep him, with the other team having done the legwork.
So my gut, and this is just my gut, tells me that the Ravens will put the exclusive tag on Jackson, and from there try, again, to do a long-term deal. But I’m far from certain of it.
We’ll all know in less than 48 hours.
Along those lines, the teams that might be most interesting to me are the ones that could tread water with cheaper options in 2023. It’d be hard not to see the Falcons, Raiders or Commanders exploring their quarterbacking options over the next two months. That said, if Las Vegas re-signs Jarrett Stidham (and I think it will), then all three will have young, affordable options with some upside that logged starts for them last year.
And among that group, I’m really fascinated with what Atlanta’s doing, because the team’s investment at the position through the first two years under GM Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith has boiled down to one big-money year of Matt Ryan, and a bunch of mid-level augmenting players as they rebuild the rest of the roster.
So why take this approach?
“I would say [it’s] because, philosophically, it’s about the team,” Fontenot told me at the scouting combine. “You have to build the right team. And, offensively, defensively, kicking game, for anyone to have success, any quarterback to have success, whether he’s a top draft pick, later draft pick, guy you paid a lot of money in free agency, or a guy that’s already had success, you better have the right team around him for him to have success.
“So our mindset is let’s continue to work hard to build the total team and improve the roster, because in order for anybody to be successful, we have to have the right team.”
Now that sounds overly simple and maybe it is.
It’s also logical—a young quarterback coming in will have a better shot with a more developed team around him (à la Russell Wilson going into Seattle in Year 3 for John Schneider and Pete Carroll, or Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes being drafted by teams that were in the playoffs), and Atlanta had a ways to go to get there when the current regime arrived two Januarys ago.
They’re closer now with a young core made up of guys such as Chris Lindstrom, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, AJ Terrell and Richie Grant starting to come together, a boatload of cap space ($75 million) after taking last year’s clear-the-decks approach to dead money left over from the previous regime, and the No. 8 pick in this year’s draft.
For now, what Fontenot knows is he has a coach who can win with a lot of different quarterbacks, and has done so in both Tennessee and Atlanta. And, all the same, a pretty clear vision for what he wants in the position after working with Drew Brees for 15 years in New Orleans.
“None of his numbers are going to be prototype when you look at him,” Fontenot says. “But, man, all the intangibles, no one was going to outwork Drew, no one was going to watch more film than Drew, no one was going to be a better teammate than Drew. The way that’s affected me as an evaluator is looking at a guy with all the intangibles and knowing how important that is. It’s easy to say that—Hey, this guy has the intangibles and he’s got the right makeup. But it’s a grind. It’s an everyday in-and-out, tedious grind.
“And there has to be a rare discipline in you to have those types of intangibles. So that’s the way Drew’s affected me, the way you look at not just quarterbacks but players overall, you better focus on their makeup.”
It’s one reason the Falcons love Desmond Ridder. It’s also instructive, if you’re looking at their options at the position in 2023. Or whenever they go get their guy.
Richardson set combine records for quarterbacks in the vertical (40.5") and broad (10'9") jumps, and blazed a 4.43 40-yard dash.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
Saturday’s drills amped up the pressure on Bryce Young a little, as I see it. Young checked in at 5'10", and 204 pounds, then sat out all the drills. He’ll throw at his pro day and, presumably, decline to weigh in there (it’s not Young’s fault he has to play it, but the shell game here is a little ridiculous if you think about it). In the end, teams are either going to get comfortable with Young’s lack of size, and standing as an outlier, or they won’t.
But I will say that what Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Florida’s Anthony Richardson did in the quarterback workout over the weekend isn’t going to help him, mostly because those guys do fit prototypes, and helped themselves in a big way. Which, at least on paper, creates an alternative for a team that might be a little uneasy with taking a smaller quarterback high.
I got a text from one NFC quarterbacks coach during Stroud’s throwing session that was simple and to the point—“He’s killing it.” You saw, in the 21-year-old Buckeye, a polished passer capable of changing speeds on the ball, getting it anywhere on the field efficiently, and maintaining accuracy regardless of which type of throw he’s making.
As for Richardson, well, that one’s even simpler. He’s 6'4" and 244 pounds, set combine records for quarterbacks in the vertical (40.5") and broad (10'9") jumps, and blazed a 4.43 40-yard dash, then slinged the ball with effortless arm strength in his workout.
Now, the question for teams will be how that matches up with how he played at Florida.
“He was composed and clean here, and that doesn’t always show up on tape,” says one AFC college scout, who has studied Richardson on tape and gotten live game exposures to him as well. “I had him as my [top QB] coming in. … I don’t know if I’d have the [guts] to take him over Bryce, but I love the ceiling. He’s just so extremely gifted, if you can clean up his feet, create some easy rhythm for him, and build around him, I don’t see why he can’t be a very good quarterback. That’ll obviously take commitment, but I would take him.”
“The athleticism matches [on tape],” said an AFC exec after the workout. “His physical talent is unquestionable. And there are a number of plays on film that you can say, Not many guys can do that, too.” I then asked the exec how raw he sees Richardson being, and he answered, “3.5 on a scale of 1 to 5. I mean, it’s [how much] you can put on him without guardrails. Some guys right away can handle it. Others need time.”
Regardless of how much time he needs, Richardson left Indy looking like a more viable option for teams at the top of the draft than he had going in. So did Stroud. Which means now Young’s got some work to do.
The draft class is really good at running back, and that’s bad news for veterans at the position. If you want to know where that market has gone over the past few years, all you have to do is look back at the fate of last year’s free-agent class.
• Leonard Fournette returned to the Buccaneers on a three-year, $21 million deal. He’s being cut by Tampa Bay, as the Bucs look to retool post–Tom Brady.
• James Conner returned to the Cardinals on a three-year, $21 million deal. His base salary is fully guaranteed in 2023, so he should be back, under new coach Jonathan Gannon.
• Rashaad Penny returned to the Seahawks on a one-year, $5.75 million contract. He was overtaken by rookie Kenneth Walker III last year.
• Melvin Gordon returned to the Broncos on a one-year, $2.5 million deal. He finished the season on the Chiefs’ practice squad.
• Chase Edmonds signed a two-year, $12 million deal to jump from the Cardinals to the Dolphins, who also poached Raheem Mostert from the Niners, on a one-year, $3.125 million deal.
And, yes, the Giants’ Saquon Barkley, Raiders’ Josh Jacobs and Cowboys’ Tony Pollard bring plenty to the table. Thing is, at least two of them will be franchised, and maybe all three of them (pending the Jones negotiation in New York), and those teams could decide to go year-to-year with those guys at a little over $10 million for 2023. After that, you get to guys such as Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Jamaal Williams and Kareem Hunt.
With that group, it’d be easy to think why the first-tier guys are getting tagged.
The trouble is the above history shows how devalued the position has gotten on the veteran market and, even more so, again, how there seem to be good players everywhere at the position in the draft. Texas’s Bjian Robinson has drawn comparisons to Barkley, Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs to Alvin Kamara, and after that you have a deep well of solid Day 2 and early Day 3 backs to the point where starters might be there in Round 5.
And then, you can ask yourself: Would you rather have a rookie or even two with fresh legs, locked up for multiple years on a very affordable contract, or a Sanders or Montgomery with less term, for more money, and carrying a lot more mileage?
Really, I feel bad for all these guys. But it’s the reality of the position.
The Bengals don't want to lose Bates, who will likely receive big money in free agency.
Sam Greene/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK
The number of top-shelf players in free agency is very low, and it makes me think that the number of big-money deals will be, too. I got a good look at free-agent lists this week, and tried to figure who’ll make eight figures per year on the market. And if you take the aforementioned backs who’ll be tagged off the list, consider tags coming down on Washington DL Daron Payne, Jacksonville TE Evan Engram and maybe Kansas City OT Orlando Brown Jr., what’s left is, well, not a whole lot.
A few guesses on who the big-money guys will be after asking around a little …
• I’d be surprised if Cincinnati’s Jessie Bates doesn’t cash in, and he may even scrape up against what Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James got last year. In almost every case, you have to ask with free agents why their current teams are letting them go. In this one, it’s easy—the Bengals don’t want to lose him, but they have a lot of mouths to feed. So their loss could be the gain of a team such as Chicago, Cleveland or San Francisco. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is the one other safety who’ll be in eight figures, but not at Bates’s level.
• There are a few good interior defensive line options, even with Payne coming off the market. Denver’s Dre’Mont Jones and Philly’s Javon Hargrave probably won’t get $20 million per year, but they might not be far off.
• Receivers, corners and edge rushers generally get overpaid in free agency—in part because great ones at those premium spots don’t get to free agency, leaving second-tier guys. So wideouts Jakobi Meyers and DJ Chark, corners Jamel Dean and James Bradberry, and rushers Yannick Ngakoue and Marcus Davenport should do pretty well.
• Tackle’s another position like that and, after Brown, there’s a trio of guys who didn’t quite live up to their predraft billing in San Francisco’s Mike McGlinchey, Atlanta’s Kaleb McGary and Jacksonville’s Jawaan Taylor, who are in a spot to elevate the second tier of the market at the position. There’s a good chance Terron Armstead–like deals (he signed a five-year, $75 million contract with the Dolphins in 2022, receiving $43.37 million in guarantees) will be out there for them.
• One other thing on the receiver spot—fast guys tend to get overpaid in free agency. So I’d guess someone’s gonna bet on the upside (though close to the way the Jags did on Christian Kirk, who signed a four-year deal for $72 million last year) of Kansas City’s Mecole Hardman and Indy’s Parris Campbell.
• Assuming Pollard doesn’t get a deal by Tuesday in Dallas, and with Engram tagged, Dalton Schultz will avoid being tagged and hit the market as the top available tight end. He’s already turned down a pretty solid multiyear offer from the Cowboys.
• The Bills’ Tremaine Edmunds, to me, might be the most interesting player on the market. He’s still just 24. He’s still a physical freak. He’ll make it to the market because the linebacker tag is based on edge-rusher numbers (which is too much for an off-ball linebacker). And, yet, he hasn’t quite put it all together as a pro. I’ll be interested to see if Bill Belichick, who loves bigger linebackers and poaching from division rivals, throws the Patriots’ hat in that ring.
And that kind of covers it for the top free agents. As we said, not exactly a star-studded group.
Which is one reason why I believe teams, again, will try to be creative in asking about the availability of other teams’ core players via trade. Who could be available that we’re not talking about right now? The best place to look is at young players going into contract years to try to find potential cases such as Orlando Brown Jr.’s in 2021 or A.J. Brown’s last year, where a non-first-round pick is going into the last year of his rookie deal, and his team either isn’t planning to do an extension with him, or is struggling to strike one.
Now, the problem is the 2020 draft class isn’t rife with opportunity in that regard.
If you’re looking for a tailback, you could ask Indy about Jonathan Taylor, though it seems having Taylor would be valuable if you’re planning to play a rookie quarterback. Tampa’s cap situation may restrict a new deal with Antoine Winfield Jr., and Dallas might have trouble finding common ground with Trevon Diggs, so it probably couldn’t hurt to place a phone call on either one of them. And if Washington is going to decline Chase Young’s fifth-year option (we’ll see), my radar might be up for opportunity there, too.
Then, there’d be even longer shots such as Carolina’s Jeremy Chinn or Kansas City’s L’Jarius Sneed. But again, all you can really get by calling is a no.
Anyway, I’d expect more teams will be thinking this way this offseason, with an escalating salary cap and these sorts of preemptive trades making fewer great players available in free agency, which limits opportunity to fill holes with veteran options.
The NFLPA survey was a good idea, and making it public was the right move. NFL teams have forever cut corners to save money, and there are plenty of cases where you can see teams doing so with their players, as they pour more and more capital into the business—if you want a prime example of it, look at teams that were near the bottom of the NFLPA’s rankings, even while undergoing significant stadium renovations aimed at creating a more luxurious experience for the high rollers in the suites and clubs.
And where college football programs have to build palatial practice facilities to attract recruits, in the NFL, having those sorts of training centers is far enough down the list of players’ priorities (behind money, coaches, fit, geography, etc.) to where teams have been able to get away with charging players for meals (Arizona) or having rats in laundry hampers (Jacksonville).
So this survey becomes a way of holding teams accountable, mostly because one of the easiest ways to influence a billionaire to enact change is to embarrass them.
In the end, every team can afford to have a practice facility such as the Vikings, Dolphins and Raiders—it was no coincidence that the list’s top three teams were the three with the newest facilities. And there actually is a big benefit in having one in that it can be a place where guys want to come to work in the offseason, and in all the voluntary work that takes place through it, which, presumably, would make the team stronger in the long run.
Maybe, in the aftermath of that survey, more teams will get their buildings up to date. Either way, they should be plenty embarrassed enough by the results of the survey to do something about it.
The size of the receivers really stood out to me Saturday. Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt, USC’s Jordan Addison, North Carolina’s Josh Downs and Boston College’s Zay Flowers—all of whom will probably go in the first two rounds—all weighed in between 171 and 182 pounds.
I figured that’d make this year’s class an exception. Then, I looked at last year’s class, and saw that seven of the top 10 receivers taken weighed in under 190 pounds at Indy, and three (Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson and Wan’Dale Robinson) were under 180.
So what does it mean? That guys are training for speed, rather than power, in a league that was impacted in a big way by the Chiefs’ success with Tyreek Hill. And DeVonta Smith’s ascension to stardom, after weighing just 166 pounds at the 2021 medical combine, doesn’t hurt, either.
Now, of course, that doesn’t mean you can’t find bigger players at the position anymore; Drake London, Treylon Burks and Christian Watson fit into that category in 2022. It’s just that, to go high in the draft as a receiver, you no longer have to possess ideal height, weight and strength for the position. Which will be proven again April 27–29 in Kansas City.
One thing you need to know
The combine may be over, but things won’t slow down much in the coming days—the franchise-tag deadline is 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, free agency starts at 4 p.m. ET March 15 and the owners meetings are at the end of the month. Which is giving the owners what they’ve wanted forever, which is for football to remain in the news year-round.
