QB Confidence Index: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud Eye Patrick Mahomes’s Monopoly on AFC
The AFC is loaded beyond words at quarterback.
While Patrick Mahomes has a monopoly on Super Bowl appearances among the young guns, he’s far from the only signal-caller with championship potential.
It’s easy to make a case for half the starters in the AFC as title contenders provided the roster is solid, ranging from Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, to Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers.
Beyond them are a few question marks and tough calls, along with teams that will be actively seeking an upgrade at the position before 2024.
For our quarterback confidence index, we’re factoring in talent, age, contract, cap hit and injury history to give us our number between 1 and 10. The higher the number, the more confidence there is.
Let’s get to it.
Baltimore Ravens: 9
The Ravens had a tough ending to their season, but the future is brilliant. Lamar Jackson is the chief reason why, and at 27 years old he will cost only $32.4 million against the cap in 2024. A two-time MVP, Jackson gives Baltimore the ultimate dual-threat QB, now surrounded by a legitimate cast of weapons.
Jackson earned his second MVP this season as an unmatched dual-threat quarterback.
Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports
Buffalo Bills: 9
After never having a cap hit of more than $18 million, Josh Allen will cost $47 million next season. Still, he’s a top-five quarterback even considering his bouts with turnovers, giving Buffalo a chance in every game it plays. For the Bills, Allen is easily their biggest reason for hope as the roster is set to have some changes this offseason.
Cincinnati Bengals: 8.5
Joe Burrow is a phenomenal talent, but the number is a bit below Baltimore’s and Buffalo’s because of injuries. While Burrow has proven a perennial MVP candidate and top-flight passer, he’s also missed 13 games over four seasons due to a torn ACL and a ruptured wrist tendon. There was also the calf, which Burrow played through but was severely limited by early on.
Cleveland Browns: 3
Nobody in Cleveland can be happy with this situation. Giving it a three seems generous. Deshaun Watson has been a disaster since he was acquired for three first-round picks, having played in 12 games and throwing 14 touchdowns against nine interceptions. Even worse, Watson has three more years on his fully guaranteed deal carrying cap hits of $63.9 million annually.
Denver Broncos: 1.5
Barring a miracle, the Broncos are going to release Russell Wilson early on this offseason. The dead cap money is going to be enormous at $85 million. So what’s next? Denver will almost certainly draft a quarterback in the first round to compete with backup Jarrett Stidham. It’s a tough spot for Sean Payton & Co.
Houston Texans: 10
This is arguably the best quarterback situation in the AFC this side of Kansas City. C.J. Stroud was the No. 2 pick in 2023 and immediately proved a phenomenal choice. The Offensive Rookie of the Year threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns against five interceptions, leading Houston to a shocking division title. With Stroud on a rookie deal, the Texans are in great shape.
Indianapolis Colts: 5.5
It’s tough to know how the Colts’ situation looks. While Anthony Richardson showed plenty of potential in his abbreviated rookie campaign, he played just four games, gaining 613 total yards with seven touchdowns. If Richardson and coach Shane Steichen can build on his promise, Indianapolis is in terrific position going into 2024.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7
Yes, Trevor Lawrence played through injuries throughout the back half of the season. Yes, his offensive line was inconsistent. But Lawrence was supposed to take a quantum leap last year, and instead threw 21 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. More importantly, Jacksonville collapsed down the stretch, missing the playoffs. Lawrence is still a terrific player, but he has much to prove.
No matter what his contract is, Mahomes is the best bargain in football.
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Kansas City Chiefs: 10
For much of 2023, Mahomes was saddled with middling offensive tackles and a litany of receivers hellbent on dropping every other pass thrown to them. He still managed 4,183 passing yards and 27 touchdowns in 16 games before leading the Chiefs to another Super Bowl. Regardless of his contract, Mahomes remains the best bargain in football.
Las Vegas Raiders: 2.5
The Raiders have a quandary. Clearly, the future under center doesn’t rest with Aidan O’Connell or Jimmy Garoppolo, the latter of whom is likely gone after 2024. But sitting 13th in the draft order, will Las Vegas try to nab someone like Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr., or try to upgrade elsewhere and patchwork at quarterback?
Los Angeles Chargers: 8
This is the last year of meager cap hits for Justin Herbert, who is owed just $19.3 million next season. However, the Chargers have to cut significant talent elsewhere to fix their cap situation, which means more pressure on Herbert and new coach Jim Harbaugh. Herbert has special abilities, but he must play his best ball for Los Angeles to seriously compete in the AFC.
Miami Dolphins: 6.5
The Dolphins need to free up cap space, and Tua Tagovailoa is extension eligible. Smart money says Miami signs him long term. Still, is that the right move? Tagovailoa threw for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2023, but struggled mightily at times against better teams. He’s a good quarterback, but is he good enough to win it all?
New England Patriots: 0
The Patriots are basically back to who they were in the early 1990s before Robert Kraft, Bill Parcells and Drew Bledsoe arrived. They have no quarterback, few weapons and an unproven coach. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe aren’t good, and New England doesn’t pick early enough for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Jayden Daniels, come on down?
New York Jets: 6.5
The Jets are in a very intriguing situation. Aaron Rodgers will be 41 years old next season while coming off a torn Achilles. He could return to the form that helped him win MVP awards in 2019 and ’20. Or he could look like a 41-year-old with a bad wheel playing behind a terrible offensive line. We shall see.
The Jets have reason for optimism this upcoming season, but a 41-year-old Rodgers returning from injury makes for an intriguing situation.
Kevin R. Wexler/USA TODAY NETWORK
Pittsburgh Steelers: 2
There’s no reason to mince words here. Kenny Pickett isn’t good. He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in two years. He’s bad enough that Mason Rudolph looked like a significant upgrade at the end of the season. Pittsburgh has to be aggressive this season to find an upgrade, whether it be a veteran like Ryan Tannehill or a first-round pick.
Tennessee Titans: 4.5
This grade depends on how you view Will Levis. His rookie season showed promise, throwing for 1,808 yards and eight touchdowns, albeit while completing 58.4% of his attempts. With a new coach in Brian Callahan, Levis will need to prove his worth as the Titans retool the roster.
