2025 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 14: Who’s In and Who’s Out

This is the week when the NFL playoff picture will clear up.

The Week 14 schedule began with the Lions hosting the Cowboys, a game between two desperate teams. Detroit defeated Dallas, 44–30, to increase its playoff chances from 30% to 45%. As for the Cowboys, their hopes are all but gone, falling to only a 9% chance to reach the postseason.

On Sunday, there were a trio of massive divisional matchups, with the first two already going final. In Jacksonville, the Jaguars not only beat the Colts, 36–19, but Indianapolis lost Daniel Jones to an apparent Achilles injury. Meanwhile, the Steelers went to M&T Bank Stadium and beat the Ravens, 27–22, on the back of a controversial touchdown reversal in the final minutes. In the late window, the Bears will take on the Packers at Lambeau Field.

In the late window, the Packers beat the Bears at Lambeau Field to take a half-game lead in the NFC North behind Jordan Love’s three touchdown passes.

On Sunday night, the Chiefs fell to the Texans at Arrowhead Stadium. At 6–7, Kansas City is all but assured of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. On Monday night, the Chargers held off the Eagles in overtime, intercepting Jalen Hurts to end the game.

But we start with a look at where the current playoff pictures stand, beginning in the AFC.

AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Denver Broncos

Record: 11–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 99%

Denver handled the Raiders on the road, winning 24–17 to sweep the season series with Las Vegas. The rest of the schedule is more challenging, with the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs and Chargers over the last four regular-season games.

No. 2: New England Patriots

Record: 11–2 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 99%

New England is on its bye week and will return the following Sunday to host the Bills in the second of their two matchups this season.

No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 9–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 96%

Jacksonville hosted its biggest game of the year, taking on the Colts and beating them, 36–19. The Jaguars have won four in a row, while Indianapolis has lost four of its last five. Jacksonville comes out of the game with a 65% chance to win the AFC South.

No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 7–6 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 66%

After beating the Ravens on the road, Pittsburgh is in the driver’s seat to win the AFC North for the first time since 2020. The Steelers now go home to host the Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 9–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 67%

The Chargers moved up one spot after holding on to beat Philadelphia in overtime on Monday night. L.A. intercepted Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts four times, including Tony Jefferson's game-winner in the extra session.

No. 6: Buffalo Bills

Record: 9–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 96%

Buffalo came back in the fourth quarter to beat the Bengals, 39–34, in Orchard Park on Sunday, putting the Bills two games behind the Patriots in the AFC East. The two teams will tangle next Sunday at Gillette Stadium.

No. 7: Houston Texans

Record: 8–5 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 93%

Houston entered the playoff picture after beating the Chiefs 20–10 at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night. The defense authored another great performance, intercepting Patrick Mahomes three times.

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Los Angeles Rams

Record: 10–3 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 98%

The Rams handled the three-win Cardinals with ease, scoring 45 points and not punting in the first half. Now, Los Angeles goes home to prepare for the Lions, who at 8–5 are in desperation mode.

No. 2: Green Bay Packers

Record: 9–3–1 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 96%

The Packers are in first place in the NFC North after defeating the Bears, 28–21. Green Bay will play Chicago again in two weeks, but first takes on the Broncos at Mile High next weekend.

No. 3: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 8–5 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 96%

The Eagles have now lost three consecutive games after their overtime loss to the Chargers on Monday night. Quarterback Jalen Hurts tossed four interceptions in the loss.

No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 7–6 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 67%

Tampa Bay is now tied atop the NFC South with Carolina after losing at home to the Saints. Baker Mayfield failed to complete half of his passes while the defense allowed Tyler Shough to rush for two touchdowns in a shocking defeat.

No. 5: Seattle Seahawks

Record: 10–3 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 97%

Seattle was tied with the Falcons at halftime, but came out and destroyed Atlanta, 37–9, to earn the road win. The Seahawks are now in first place in the NFC West going into the late window.

No. 6: San Francisco 49ers

Record: 9–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 91%

The 49ers have their bye week after beating the Browns in Cleveland last weekend. When they get back on the field, it’s the one-win Titans coming to Santa Clara.

No. 7: Chicago Bears

Record: 9–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 68%

The Bears went to Lambeau Field with a chance to put a firm grasp on the NFC North, but lost 28–21 as Calem Williams threw a last-minute interception in the end zone. Next are the Browns, coming off a home loss to the Titans.