2025 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 14: Who’s In and Who’s Out

The Cowboys’ playoff odds took a significant hit with Thursday night’s loss, while the Lions boosted theirs.

Lions running back David Montgomery celebrates with center Trystan Colon after a 35-yard touchdown run in Detroit's win over Dallas on Thursday night. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

This is the week when the NFL playoff picture will clear up. 

The Week 14 schedule began with the Lions hosting the Cowboys, a game between two desperate teams. Detroit defeated Dallas, 44–30, to increase its playoff chances from 30% to 45%. As for the Cowboys, their hopes are all but gone, falling to only a 9% chance to reach the postseason.

On Sunday, there is a trio of massive divisional matchups: The Colts will visit the Jaguars in the AFC South, the Ravens will host the Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium and then, in the late window, the Bears will take on the Packers at Lambeau Field.

On Sunday night, the Chiefs and Texans lock up at Arrowhead Stadium, with the loser in tough shape, while Monday night features the Chargers hosting the Eagles in Los Angeles. 

But we start with a look at where the current playoff pictures stand, beginning in the AFC.

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AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: New England Patriots

Record: 11–2 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 99%

New England is on its bye week and will return the following Sunday to host the Bills in the second of their two matchups this season.

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No. 2: Denver Broncos

Record: 10–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 99%

Denver is on the road for the second consecutive week, this time traveling west to take on the Raiders in Las Vegas. 

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No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 83%

Jacksonville hosts its biggest game of the year, taking on the Colts. The Jaguars have won three in a row, while Indianapolis has lost three of its last four, putting the teams in a tie atop the AFC South at 8–4.

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No. 4: Baltimore Ravens

Record: 6–6 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 64%

Baltimore will play host to Pittsburgh in the first of two meetings between the divisional foes, with first place in the AFC North at stake. The Steelers will host the Ravens in Week 18.

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No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 61%

The Chargers welcome the Eagles on Monday night. Both teams are 8–4, and each needs the game for playoff positioning. Los Angeles is also hoping Justin Herbert will look fully healthy despite surgery on a broken left hand.

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No. 6: Indianapolis Colts

Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 68%

Indianapolis will try to snap its two-game losing streak on Sunday in Jacksonville against the first-place Jaguars. A loss would be very concerning, as a trip to Seattle is up next.

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No. 7: Buffalo Bills

Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 91%

Buffalo will tangle with the Bengals in Orchard Park this Sunday, a game suddenly more interesting by the return of Joe Burrow on Thanksgiving. The Bills are 2.5 games behind the AFC East leaders.

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Chicago Bears

Record: 9–3 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 77%

Chicago will try to gain a stranglehold on the NFC North with a win over the Packers, but it won’t be easy. The Bears will travel to Lambeau Field for the first of two meetings with Green Bay, with the other in two weeks.

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No. 2: Los Angeles Rams

Record: 9–3 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 97%

The Rams are coming off a loss to the Panthers and are on the road once more. This time, it’s to face Jacoby Brissett and the three-win Cardinals, who were eliminated last week from playoff contention.

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No. 3: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 8–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 94%

After losing two straight, the Eagles will now go across the country to visit the Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Monday night. If Philadelphia loses, talk radio will be unbearable on Tuesday morning.

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No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 7–5 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 79%

Tampa Bay is only leading Carolina by a half-game in the NFC South, but gets the opportunity to extend its lead with the Panthers on their bye. The Buccaneers are on the road, taking on the Saints.

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No. 5: Seattle Seahawks

Record: 9–3 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 95%

Seattle will try to keep pace with the Rams in the NFC West. To do so, the Seahawks will need to beat the Falcons this weekend, even though they have to play an early game on the East Coast.

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No. 6: Green Bay Packers

Record: 8–3–1 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 91%

First place will be on the line in the NFC North, with the Bears visiting Green Bay. For the Packers, a win means taking over the top spot and potentially looking at home-field advantage. 

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No. 7: San Francisco 49ers

Record: 9–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 91%

The 49ers have their bye week after beating the Browns in Cleveland last weekend. When they get back on the field, it’s the one-win Titans coming to Santa Clara.

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