Bengal Bets: Three Wagers to Make in Bengals-Steelers Week 1 Matchup

Three wagers with some value on Sunday.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Publish date:
Sep 8, 2022 8:30 AM EDT

In this story:

CINCINNATI — It's almost time to kick off the season Bengals fans!

Sports betting is close to going live in Ohio making it the perfect time for best bets involving Cincinnati games every week. Throughout the season I'll bring you three wagers I like along with a quick explainer and we'll track my record throughout the season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are on deck to take on the Bengals in a rare season-opening affair for this rivalry. Let's dive into the best options on the board.

Ja'Marr Chase O72.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Ja'Marr Chase Steelers — © Sam Greene/The Enquirer via Imagn Content Services, LLC

We start with the head-scratcher of the day. Chase is fresh off the greatest opening receiving season in league history after setting a rookie record with 1,455 receiving yards. That comes out to about 85.6 yards per game, and that's without playing the full game against Cleveland in Week 17.

Sure, all the talk this offseason has focused on more double teams for Chase and a two-safety cloud, but I'll believe all that when I see it for a month. Chase didn't hit this mark in either game against Pittsburgh last season, but with a bottom-five group of defensive backs, I expect Chase to at least notch 73 yards for the first time against Pittsburgh.

Levi Wallace, Akhello Witherspoon, Cam Sutton. No part of that starting cornerback trio is installing fear in Chase's heart.

Najee Harris O15.5 Carries (-120)

Aug 28, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) runs against the Detroit Lions during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports — Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Who knows what we'll get from Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers' passing game, but Najee Harris is a known commodity. The bell-cow back got nearly all of Pittsburgh's carries last year (307 totes, second in NFL).

Harris went over 15.5 carries in 11-of-17 games and had double-digit rushes in every game other than the 41-10 blowout against Cincinnati. I would be shocked if offensive coordinator Matt Canada lifts the guard rails off of Trubisky and lets him throw 45-plus times, but I do expect the quick pace to maintain in this system.

Pittsburgh ran the ninth-most plays per game in the NFL last season (65.5 plays). Meaning if they hit that average again in Week 1 then Trubisky would have to throw the ball 49-51 times for a healthy Harris not to hit this over. Given how close this game projects to be as a week one affair for a Super Bowl loser, 50 pass attempts would be A LOT. Bank on Harris—and balance from Pittsburgh.

First Half Under 22.5 (-110 SI Sportsbook)

Sep 19, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Eli Apple (20) leaves the field after his team defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-10 at Heinz Field. — Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Week 1 is weird.

I'd be surprised if Cincinnati lost this game, but I expect both teams to get their offenses off to slow starts. For Cincinnati, you're integrating four new offensive linemen that have never played live snaps as a group.

A less concerning factor for points but still relevant is that no starters outside Cordell Volson got reps in the preseason. Cincinnati will be a top-10 offense this season, but expecting them to hit the ground running in the first two quarters with all of these new names protecting Burrow feels obtuse. T.J. Watt and the Pittsburgh front seven aren't the best options for breaking in a new offensive line in the opening quarters.

Looking at the Steelers' offense, I don't care how many tubes of lipstick get put on Trubisky—he is what he is, and that's a quarterback with a bottom-third ceiling. His career-adjusted net yards per attempt (the stat most correlated to making the championship round) is 5.62 ANY/A. That would've tied Daniel Jones for 22nd in the NFL last season. The Steelers signal-caller is barely mediocre at best and that's before he plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Pro Football Focus ranked them 30th in the league as a unit, and none of the returning starters eclipsed a 65 overall grade. A fast start against a Bengals defense that added more versatility this offseason isn't likely.

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