How NFL Playoff Picture Looks After Lions’ Win Over Cowboys on ‘TNF’

A prime-time clash with massive playoff implications kicked off Week 14.

David Montgomery scored a touchdown in the second quarter on Thursday night. / Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Both the Cowboys and Lions desperately needed a win Thursday night in order to stay relevant in the NFC playoff picture.

The Cowboys stayed in the game with kicker Brandon Aubrey drilling three field goals of 55+ yards, and they even trimmed the deficit to three points in the fourth quarter. But Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions’ offense couldn’t be stopped in the second half, and rolled to a 44–30 victory.

The Lions improved to 8–5 with the win. They remain in third place in the crowded NFC North, but are now just one game back of the 49ers (9–4) for the NFC’s final wild-card spot. Dallas, on the other hand, falls to 6–6–1 and will need a dramatic late-season run and some help in order to make the playoffs.

Entering the night, the Lions and Cowboys were the first two teams on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. That’s still the case following the Lions’ victory, but both teams’ chances to make the playoffs changed drastically with the Thursday Night Football result.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Lions now have a 53% chance to make the playoffs. Had they lost, that number would’ve dropped to 19%. The Cowboys’ playoff chances look rather bleak at just 9%. If Dallas pulled out a win Thursday night, Next Gen Stats would’ve given it a 39% chance to make the playoffs.

Here’s a look at how the NFL playoff picture looks heading into the weekend (note: all playoff chances are courtesy of Next Gen Stats):

NFC Playoff Picture

SEED	TEAM	PLAYOFF %
1	Bears (9–3)	76%
2	Rams (9–3)	95%
3	Eagles (8–4)	95%
4	Buccaneers (7–5)	83%
5	Seahawks (9–3)	92%
6	Packers (8–3–1)	88%
7	49ers (9–4)	91%
---	---	---
8	Lions (8–5)	53%
9	Cowboys (6–6–1)	9%
10	Panthers (7–6)	19%
11	Falcons (4–8)	<1%
12	Vikings (4–8)	<1%
13	Commanders (3–9)	<1%
---	ELIMINATED	---
14	Cardinals (3–9)	<1%
15	Saints (2–10)	<1%
16	Giants (2–11)	<1%

AFC Playoff Picture

SEED	TEAM	PLAYOFF %
1	Patriots (11–2)	>99%
2	Broncos (10–2)	99%
3	Jaguars (8–4)	83%
4	Ravens (6–6)	63%
5	Chargers (8–4)	65%
6	Colts (8–4)	73%
7	Bills (8–4)	88%
---	---	---
8	Texans (7–5)	59%
9	Steelers (6–6)	34%
10	Chiefs (6–6)	33%
11	Dolphins (5–7)	<1%
12	Bengals (4–8)	4%
13	Jets (3–9)	<1%
14	Browns (3–9)	<1%
---	ELIMINATED	---
15	Raiders (2–10)	0%
16	Titans (1–11)	0%

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