Key Matchups, Predictions for Bengals-Bills and More NFL Week 14 Games

Divisional games with major playoff implications headline this week’s slate.

Joe Burrow & Co. will travel to Highmark Stadium for a must-win game against the Bills. / Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Jump to a game

1. Bengals (4–8) at Bills (8–4)
2. Colts (8–4) at Jaguars (8–4)
3. Bears (9–3) at Packers (8–3–1)
4. Texans (7–5) at Chiefs (6–6)
5. Eagles (8–4) at Chargers (8–4)

If there’s a week that will separate the standings in the NFL, it’s Week 14. 

On Sunday, there are five massive matchups to watch, followed by a key interconference game on Monday night. 

In the early window, the Bills and Bengals will meet in Buffalo for the first time since the 2022 AFC divisional round, with Cincinnati looking to stay alive in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the home side is attempting to buy itself some breathing room in the AFC playoff picture, currently sitting in seventh. 

Elsewhere, the Jaguars and Colts will battle at EverBank Stadium for first place in the AFC South, as Jacksonville comes in on a three-game winning streak. In the late window at Lambeau Field, the Packers and Bears will fight for the top spot in the NFC North, and potentially alter who holds the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 

Finally, Sunday Night Football gives us a showdown between the reeling Chiefs and surging Texans at Arrowhead Stadium. At 6–6, a loss almost assuredly knocks Kansas City out of the playoff race, which would result in it missing the postseason for the first time since 2014. And on Monday night, the Chargers will host the Eagles in a battle between 8–4 teams jockeying to remain in good standing in their respective conferences. 

But we start in Buffalo, where two of the league’s best quarterbacks will be squaring off.

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Bengals (4–8) at Bills (8–4)

Spread: Bills -6

Key matchup: James Cook vs. the Bengals’ front seven

Key stat: Cook has rushed for 1,228 yards, second-most in the NFL.

Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Despite being 4–8, the Bengals are playing for something. If they win out, which would include a season sweep of the 6–6 Ravens, Cincinnati would have a 6% chance of winning the AFC North, according to The Athletic. 

However, to achieve the first of those five upcoming victories, Cincinnati’s defense will need to stop Josh Allen and James Cook. 

Cook has arguably been the league’s best running back this side of Jonathan Taylor. He’s rushed for 1,228 yards and eight touchdowns while churning out 5.3 yards per carry. He’s been Buffalo’s bellcow, especially with the passing game struggling, as the Bills have no receiver over 600 yards. Additionally, Allen has rushed for 11 touchdowns and 409 yards, giving Bengals defensive coordinator Al Golden another element to consider. 

All told, Buffalo has the second-best rushing EPA in the league behind the Colts at +22.1. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 31st in that category on defense with a -0.08 EPA per rush against. It all adds up to Cook and Allen having a huge day, making Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s offense play perfectly to have a chance in western New York.

Verdict: Buffalo 38, Cincinnati 34

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Colts (8–4) at Jaguars (8–4)

Spread: Colts -1.5

Key matchup: Jonathan Taylor vs. the Jaguars’ defense

Key stat: Jacksonville ranks first in rushing yards allowed per game (82.4).

Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

A month ago, who would have thought the AFC South was going to be a race? 

Fast forward to Week 14, and not only have the Colts been challenged, but they’ve been caught. The Colts and Jaguars share an 8–4 record, with Jacksonville holding the tiebreaker based on conference record. However, the teams have two games remaining against each other, starting this weekend in Duval County. 

This edition could come down to whether the Jaguars can contain Taylor. With Daniel Jones playing through a cracked fibula, his mobility is limited. As a result, Taylor has to keep Indianapolis humming on the ground while also giving Jones some easier down-and-distances to work. 

Over its past four games, Indianapolis is 1–3, with losses to the Steelers, Chiefs and Texans. The common thread in those games? Taylor has failed to score a touchdown and has been held under 100 yards in each contest. Against Jacksonville, Taylor faces the league’s top-ranked run defense, allowing 82.4 rushing yards per game. Jacksonville is also tied for fifth-best, allowing 3.9 yards per carry. 

Taylor has been brilliant this season, leading the NFL with 1,282 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. If the Colts are going to win on Sunday, he’ll need to be in top form.

Verdict: Jacksonville 23, Indianapolis 20

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Micah Parsons has been dominant for the Packers this season. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Bears (9–3) at Packers (8–3–1)

Spread: Packers -5.5

Key matchup: Micah Parsons and Rashan Gary vs. the Bears’ line

Key stat: Green Bay ranks ninth in pressure rate (35.9%).

Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

It’s been a long time since the Bears were in a position to make noise in the postseason. They haven’t won the division or hosted a playoff game since 2015. Yet on Sunday, Chicago will be playing for all the marbles against the Packers, who will be aiming to take control of the NFC North with a victory in the first of two meetings over the next three weeks. 

For Green Bay, the key will be getting pressure on second-year quarterback Caleb Williams. The Packers invested a pair of first-round picks and defensive tackle Kenny Clark in a trade to land All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons, who has lived up to expectations. Parsons has notched 12.5 sacks and 24 quarterback hits, while fellow edge rusher Rashan Gary is playing well with 7.5 sacks and 15 quarterback hits. 

The Packers are ninth in pressure rate (35.9%), but they’ll face a well-schemed offense by coach Ben Johnson. Chicago revamped its offense with the hiring of Johnson, along with adding guards Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney, and center Drew Dalman to the interior. The result? The Bears are 10th-best in pressure rate allowed at 31.1%. 

For Williams, protection is paramount. When not pressured, his EPA is +59.9. When he’s under duress, that number plummets to -50.3, including -0.36 per dropback.

Verdict: Green Bay 24, Chicago 19

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Texans (7–5) at Chiefs (6–6)

Spread: Chiefs -3.5

Key matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter

Key stat: Anderson and Hunter have a combined 21.5 sacks.

Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC

The Chiefs are in a virtual do-or-die situation. Enter Patrick Mahomes. 

Nothing is going well for Kansas City. It has lost three of its past four games, both starting tackles are hurt, and now the Chiefs are facing a red-hot Texans squad, winners of four straight, featuring the best edge duo in the league in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Not ideal.

And yet, Kansas City has the one man who may prove capable of turning things around. In Mahomes, the Chiefs have the quarterback not only second in overall EPA, but first in EPA under pressure at -18.7 and -0.04 per dropback. In essence, Mahomes is a machine when not under pressure, evidenced by his +113.1 EPA, fourth-best in football. But when under pressure, nobody has been better. 

Last year, the Texans played Kansas City twice at Arrowhead Stadium, including a divisional round tilt. The Chiefs won both contests, limiting Houston to four sacks while Mahomes didn’t commit a turnover. This despite Thuney playing tackle, and backup guard Mike Caliendo in the starting lineup, as he likely will be this Sunday.

Everything points toward the Texans pulling an upset, except for Mahomes.

Verdict: Kansas City 19, Houston 17

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Eagles (8–4) at Chargers (8–4)

Spread: Eagles -3

Key matchup: Kevin Patullo vs. the Chargers’ defense

Key stat: Philadelphia leads the NFL in three-and-out percentage this year.

Date, Time, TV: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN

Philadelphia has to get rolling. Los Angeles can’t afford to lose in the AFC wild-card race. The stage is set for a game played out of total desperation. 

For the Eagles, the key is getting their stars going. While receiver A.J. Brown has enjoyed a pair of 100-yard games over the past two weeks, both have come in losing efforts. The main reason? Saquon Barkley looks like a shell of his 2024 self, rushing for a measly 3.7 yards per carry and 740 yards for the season. Additionally, DeVonta Smith has 60 receptions for 802 yards, but zero 100-yard efforts since beating the Vikings on Oct. 18. 

For embattled offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, it won’t be an easy task to get that trio going. The Chargers rank ninth in EPA per play allowed (-0.09), one spot behind the Eagles. Furthermore, Los Angeles has allowed only three 100-yard games from any player all season, with only Denver’s Courtland Sutton doing it as a receiver. The other two belong to backs in Washington’s Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Miami’s De’Von Achane. 

The good news for Philadelphia? Even with all its offensive struggles this year (24th in yards and 19th in points per game), the offense is still one of the best the Chargers have seen in months. 

Beginning in Week 8, they’ve faced the Vikings, Titans, Steelers, Jaguars and Raiders. Those offenses rank 29th, 31st, 21st, 19th and 30th in EPA per play. Philadelphia comes in 15th, better than any team the Chargers have faced recently, save for Jacksonville, which beat Los Angeles 35–6 two weeks ago.  

Verdict: Philadelphia 24, Los Angeles 20

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