Why Rams vs. Seahawks Is Incredibly Important for NFC Playoff Picture

Don't get it twisted—this game is a big one.

The Rams and the Seahawks are tied atop the NFC West. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Although the Week 16 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Rams and Seahawks might seem pretty run-of-the-mill on its face, it's actually an incredibly consequential contest in determining the winner of the NFC West and the likely No. 1 seed in the conference.

As things stand, L.A. and Seattle sit atop both the division and the NFC, each with an 11-3 record. The Rams have already clinched playoffs, but the Seahawks can do so with a win on Thursday. The pair have also already played one another once before, back in Week 11—a game the Rams won.

If Los Angeles wins again, the No. 1 seed in the NFC is almost definitely theirs. But if the Seahawks can even the score with a win of their own ... well, that's when the plot really thickens. Remember, the No. 1 seed isn't your average playoff berth; these teams are competing for the chance at a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Both squads will really be gunning for this, and big-time.

Below, let's investigate the various scenarios at play for each team on Thursday, before diving into a separate scenario that could spoil it all.

What the game means for the Seahawks

If the Seahawks beat (or tie) the Rams on Thursday night, they are officially in the playoffs. A win would also give them a better record than Los Angeles—12–3, in that case—and put them in the lead in the division, with a then-53% chance of winning the NFC's No. 1 seed, per The Athletic.

If they lose, however, their chances of winning the division fall to 2%, though they could still clinch the playoffs this weekend if the Lions lose to the Steelers.

After Thursday's contest, the Seahawks will hit the road to play the Panthers before wrapping up the regular-season campaign with the 49ers.

What the game means for the Rams

If the Rams win on Thursday, they'll not only enjoy a one-game lead over the Seahawks, but they will also control the tiebreaker, considering they beat Seattle in Week 11, as well. In that case, the only way the Seahawks could climb back to the top is by (1) winning their last two games, while (2) L.A. loses their last two games, as noted by Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times. (To note: The Rams are up against the 5–9 Falcons and the 3–11 Cardinals to finish out the year, so it feels extremely possible they can and will run the table.)

Worse yet for Seattle (and better yet for L.A.), the Rams are clearly believed to have an edge entering Thursday's contest. As of this writing, The Athletic gives the Rams a 53% chance of earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC while the Seahawks' chances sit at just 29%. If the Rams win on Thursday, their odds of winning the conference jump to 90%.

So, in other words, the Seahawks need to beat the Rams in their rematch if they want virtually any hope of winning the No. 1 seed.

What the game means for other teams

Now, let us not forget that right behind both the Rams and the Seahawks are the 10–4 49ers, who could also make a run at the top seed if (1) Seattle beats L.A. on Thursday, giving San Francisco a 21% chance at the top seed, and (2) the Niners win out their final three games, one of which is a home tilt against the Seahawks.

If the Rams win, however, the Niners' odds of winning the No. 1 seed drop to 3%.

Tune in at 8:15 p.m. on Thursday to see what happens.

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