Why the Saints Should Not Trade for WR DK Metcalf
The New Orleans Saints are in the market for a wide receiver. Record-breaking WR Michael Thomas returns after missing the 2021 season, but the team needs another playmaker here to go along with Deonte Harty and Marquez Callaway.
A few free-agent options are still available. Most notably Mohamed Sanu, Jarvis Landry, and former Saint Emmanuel Sanders. These are players on the back end of their careers. New Orleans also has two first-round draft choices and three picks in the top-50 of what appears to be a deep crop of incoming rookie wideouts.
The Saints could also look to trade for one of the NFL's marquee receivers. Seattle WR DK Metcalf could reportedly be available, according to some reports. The Seahawks have denied that they are fielding offers for their talented receiver. However, their team appears to be in a rebuilding mode after trading All-Pro QB Russell Wilson.
The 24-year-old Metcalf is a physically imposing receiver at 6’4” and 235-Lbs. with the athleticism to match. He has at least 900 yards in all three of his NFL seasons, including a career-high 83 receptions for 1,303 yards and 10 scores in 2020.
DK Metcalf is a productive weapon and one of the better wideouts in the NFL. However, here is why it makes little sense for the Saints to deal for him.
1. ASSETS
Seattle Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf (14) against the Arizona Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Dolphins recently acquired WR Tyreek Hill in a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs. Miami surrendered first-round, second-round, and fourth-round draft picks this year along with two Day 3 picks in the 2023 draft.
The Green Bay Packers traded elite WR Davante Adams to the Raiders earlier this offseason. They got first and second round draft choices in return.
Hill is a more explosive receiver than Metcalf and has had slightly better production over the last three years. Metcalf is the far more physical player and is also four years younger than Hill.
Figure that a trade for Metcalf would require slightly less compensation. Bleacher Report has estimated that a potential trade for Metcalf would cost a first and third round choice in this year’s draft along with a second-round selection in 2023.
New Orleans has the ammunition to pull off a similar deal. In this scenario, the Saints would still have another first-round pick along with a second-round selection, Number 49 overall. This is especially intriguing because the Saints are already expected to use one of those picks on a wide receiver.
Remember that New Orleans has other team needs to address other than wide receiver. Offensive tackle is a position that many expect them to fill with a high draft pick after the free-agent loss of Terron Armstead. The Saints also have depth concerns at running back, linebacker, and safety along with a lack of talent at tight end.
New Orleans could also draft a quarterback, according to much speculation. The Saints likely made the trade with Philadelphia to pick up an extra first-round pick to address multiple needs. A trade for Metcalf would check off a big need, but also rob the ability to address another position. Remember also that New Orleans has already traded a 2023 first-round pick to the Eagles.
2. CONTRACT/SALARY
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) runs for yards after the catch against the Los Angeles Rams. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
A major reason that the Chiefs were willing to trade Tyreek Hill was because he was entering a contract year. Kansas City and Hill were reportedly far apart in early negotiations, making him available.
DK Metcalf is also entering the final year of his rookie contract. He’ll count just $4.3 million against the salary cap this season, but will undoubtedly want to negotiate a long-term deal if he were traded. A franchise that trades for Metcalf would also probably like to iron out a long-term extension, rather than giving up several assets for a one-year rental.
Spotrac.com has estimated that Metcalf's next contract will average over $24 million per year. Given the ridiculous amount of money that has been thrown at free-agent wideouts this offseason, his next contract will almost certainly be even higher than that.
Christian Kirk, an average receiver by production, signed a four-year contract worth a reported $72 million dollars this offseason. Stefon Diggs agreed to an extension with Buffalo that will pay him nearly $26 million/year. Davante Adams signed an extension after his trade to the Raiders that will pay him over $28 million annually. Tyreek Hill’s contract demands were met in a big way by Miami, who signed him to a four-year deal worth $30 million/season.
Unlike in years past, the Saints have some wiggle room with their salary cap, with a reported $19.5 million in available space. They also have a masterful front office, led by General Manager Mickey Loomis, capable of juggling cap figures.
On the surface, affording DK Metcalf wouldn't be the problem. New Orleans will also have to address the contracts of WR Deonte Harty, C Erik McCoy, DE Marcus Davenport, DT David Onyemata, and S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who all become free agents in 2023.
3. MICHAEL THOMAS
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) stiff arms Eagles safety Avonte Maddox (29). Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Thomas, a historically productive receiver from 2016 to 2019, is expected a healthy return after ankle surgery. He is nearly unstoppable through the intermediate zones and will bolster the entire offense.
In 2020, the Saints signed Thomas to a five-year contract extension that made him the highest paid receiver in the league at the time. Thomas has restructured his contract twice since then, making it much more difficult to move on from him.
Teams can rarely afford to pay two wideouts elite salaries at the same time. Thomas is the alpha of the Saints offense. There are simply not enough touches available to keep players like Thomas and Metcalf both content and able to live up to the expectations of a huge contract.
The New Orleans Saints desperately need another wideout to complement Michael Thomas and further diversify their offense. It’s most likely to come through the draft. That wideout will not be DK Metcalf.
