2025 Fantasy Baseball: Matt Wallner Profile, Preview, Predictions

Matt Wallner has elite power, but he whiffs like a champ when his timing is off. He has stretches of greatness, followed by a search party looking for his bat.

444 feet.

Matt Wallner got all of this home run 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/lukjfplyQp
— MLB (@MLB) September 11, 2024

OF – Matt Wallner, MIN (ADP – 276.9)

2025 Matt Wallner Hitting Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

Over five seasons in the minors, Wallner hit .271 over 1,487 at-bats with 268 runs, 80 home runs, 276 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases. His bat made a step forward in 2022 at AA (.299/61/21/64/8 over 268 at-bats), leading to a call-up to AAA (.247 with 29 runs, six home runs, and 31 RBIs).

Wallner had another half-season of at-bats at AAA in 2023 (.291 with 50 runs, 11 home runs, and 47 RBIs over 254 at-bats). The Twins called him up for good after the All-Star break, where his swing gave Minnesota and fantasy teams a hot run in power (.237/39/13/37 over 194 at-bats).

Despite his power success the previous year, the Twins kept him at AAA again for another 67 games in 2024. He hit .259 over 259 at-bats with 45 runs, 19 home runs, 53 RBIs, and five stolen bases. Wallner now has 703 at-bats of experience at AAA (.267/124/36/131/6).

He made the Twins out of spring training in 2024, but his inability to make contact (17 strikeouts over 33 plate appearances – 2-for-25 with one run, one home run, and four RBIs) led to a demotion to AAA in mid-April. Wallner made 54 starts over Minnesota’s final 62 games, leading to a .282 batting average with 25 runs, 12 home runs, 33 RBIs, and three steals.

His strikeout rate (29.9) has been massive in the minors while showing more risk with the Twins (34.5% - 36.4 in 2024). He walked 9.2% of the time last season in the majors. The Twins only gave him 38 at-bats against left-handed pitching (.184/3/1/3 with 21 strikeouts).

Wallner posted an elite contact batting average (.420) in his minors and in Minnesota (.424), which helps offset his batting average risk due to his high number of strikeouts. His exit velocity (92.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (53.2) ranked higher in 2024. His swing path has been fly-ball favoring (47.6%) over the past two seasons with the Twins while having repeated success in his HR/FB rate (21.7).

Fantasy Outlook: Wallner is an event player with many down days and empty at-bats. His foundation skill set supports 35+ home runs if given 550 at-bats. In 2023, he had more success at AAA vs. lefties (.239 with eight home runs and 26 RBIs over 113 at-bats), hinting at a better opportunity in this area down the road with Minnesota. For now, Wallner should be projected for about 450 at-bats, but his swing-and-miss approach can lead to slumps and a possible trip back to AAA. Let’s go with a better version of Joc Pederson, suggesting a .250/70/30/75 outcome in 2025.

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