Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfielders (Tier 13)

We continue to rank the top outfielders entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Let's break down the next tier:

61 – Evan Carter, TEX (ADP – 290.1)

Over three seasons in the minors, Carter hit .285 with 187 runs, 27 home runs, 152 RBIs, and 66 steals over 923 at-bats. His walk rate (15.8) had a top-of-the-order upside while offering a favorable strikeout rate (19.4). His contact batting average (.321, .370, and .392) has risen in the minors.

With Texas in 2023, Carter gave the Rangers winning at-bats (65) in September (.306/15/5/12/3), with follow-through in the postseason (18-for-60 with nine runs, one home run, six RBIs, and three stolen bases). His strikeout rate (32.0) was a problem with Texas in the regular season but improved in the postseason (26.4%). Carter struggled vs. lefties (.188 with one home run and two RBIs over 19 at-bats ~ .242 in the minors in 2023 with no home runs and four RBIs over 91 at-bats).

Carter battled back stiffness in mid-May last season, which required a cortisone shot and no surgery. He missed 117 games while struggling when on the field. His strikeout rate (26.5) aligned with his playoff run in 2023, but Carter had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.267), with fade in his exit velocity (86.0 mph) and hard-hit rate (32.4). He had a career-high fly-ball rate (44.1) at the expense of his line drive rate (14.7).

His bat was serviceable in April (.220/18/5/11/2 over 91 at-bats), but his back issues led to a regression in his play over limited at-bats (53) in May (7-for-53 with five runs and four RBIs ~ 19 strikeouts). Carter struggled vs. left-handed pitching (.165 over 27 at-bats with four runs, two RBIs, one walk, and 10 strikeouts).

Video: Evan Carter batting practice from@#Rangers spring training pic.twitter.com/0TMx9Ma9pK
— DLLS Rangers (@DLLS_Rangers) February 18, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Carter had an ADP of 141 last draft season compared to 290 this year. Back issues tend to linger, inviting questions about his 2025 potential. He should be treated and drafted as the same player, requiring an understanding of his profile and ceiling. A leadoff type bat with a 15/30 skill set who projects to be an excellent value option this draft season. Carter has much to prove against left-handed pitching.

62 – Jordan Walker, STL (ADP – 299.2)

Over four seasons in the minors, Jordan hit .291 with 214 runs, 46 home runs, 169 RBIs, and 44 stolen bases over 1,241 at-bats. Walker shined at AA in 2022 (.306/100/19/68/22 over 461 at-bats), but his bat regressed at AAA (.257/51/13/53/8 over 455 at-bats) over the past two seasons.

Walker made the Cardinals out of spring training in 2023. His swing didn’t fire over his first 73 at-bats (.274/8/2/11/2), pushing him back to the minors. Over his final 97 games back with St. Louis, he hit .277 with 43 runs, 14 home runs, 40 RBIs, and five steals over 347 at-bats. Walker had less value against lefties (.232/13/4/13/1 over 108 at-bats), with his best overall production coming in September (.304 with 17 runs, four home runs, 12 RBIs, and one steal).

Late last March, there were signs that Walker’s bat wasn’t in form. He went 9-for-58 in April with four runs and four RBIs, leading to a long stint back at AAA (.257/35/9/33/4 over 319 at-bats). There was more life in his stats in September (.253 over 87 at-bats with 12 runs, five home runs, 16 RBIs, and one steal) with the Cardinals.

Walker lost his approach (strikeout rate – 28.1 and walk rate – 5.6) last year in the majors. His exit velocity (91.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (43.1) improved, but he finished with a strange swing path (line drive rate – 6.9, groundball rate – 50.9, and fly-ball rate – 42.2). Based on this, Walker was out of time at the plate, along with confidence issues.

Fantasy Outlook: In the offseason, Walker has been working on regaining his line drive swing and letting the home runs come when they come. His early success in the minors suggested a 20/20 player with upside in batting average. To believe or not to believe is the Cinderella story in the fantasy market. In late January, fantasy drafters would prefer to swipe left than take him on the magical ride in 2025. I expect much more interest when his bat shows more life in spring training. Walker has breakout upside, and I expect him to be drafted much higher in 2026, making him a winning investment this year.

63 – Jo Adell, LAA (ADP – 278.7)

Over his six seasons in the minors, Adell hit .286 with 334 runs, 95 home runs, 302 RBIs, and 50 stolen bases over 1,648 at-bats. His walk rate (8.5) pushed above the league average, with risk in his strikeout rate (26.8). The Angels drafted him 10th overall in the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft.

Adell hit .272 at AAA with 176 runs, 60 home runs, 167 RBIs, and 21 steals over 865 at-bats from 2019 to 2023, but he struck out 29.1% of the time. The Angels gave him playing time in the majors from 2020 to 2023, leading to disappointing results (.214/55/18/66/7 over 580 at-bats) with a high strikeout rate (35.4).

Last season, Adell made the opening-day roster for Los Angeles while giving fantasy drafters hope that his bat would be more helpful. By the end of May, he scored 24 runs, hit 11 home runs, drove in 27 baserunners, and stole eight bags over 147 at-bats, showcasing his potential. Unfortunately, his weakness in contact led to a 28.8% strikeout rate and a regressing batting average (.211). Adell hit .205 for the remainder of the season with 30 runs, nine home runs, 35 RBIs, and seven stolen bases over 258 at-bats. His year ended in early September due to an oblique injury.

He hit .195 against right-handed pitching with 38 runs, 12 home runs, 44 RBIs, and 12 steals over 307 at-bats while striking out 105 times (30.3%). For the year, his strikeout rate (27.9) did improve with his best walk rate (7.8) in his time with the Angels. Adell had a fly-ball swing path (46.1% - 39.4 in 2023) with improvement in his exit velocity (89.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (44.5).

Fantasy Outlook: Los Angeles should give him plenty of at-bats this year, and Adell did show growth as a player last year. His ability to hit home runs and steal bases helps his floor. Before last season (.301 CTBA), he had a much higher contact batting average (.343) with the Angels, suggesting a push closer to a .250 batting average if he can shave off a few more strikeouts. Adell turns 26 in early April, putting him on a path for a 75/25/70/15 season with 500+ at-bats. He falls into the dirty power category.

64 – Matt Wallner, MIN (ADP – 276.9)

Over five seasons in the minors, Wallner hit .271 over 1,487 at-bats with 268 runs, 80 home runs, 276 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases. His bat made a step forward in 2022 at AA (.299/61/21/64/8 over 268 at-bats), leading to a call-up to AAA (.247 with 29 runs, six home runs, and 31 RBIs).

Wallner had another half-season of at-bats at AAA in 2023 (.291 with 50 runs, 11 home runs, and 47 RBIs over 254 at-bats). The Twins called him up for good after the All-Star break, where his swing gave Minnesota and fantasy teams a hot run in power (.237/39/13/37 over 194 at-bats).

Despite his power success the previous year, the Twins kept him at AAA again for another 67 games in 2024. He hit .259 over 259 at-bats with 45 runs, 19 home runs, 53 RBIs, and five stolen bases. Wallner now has 703 at-bats of experience at AAA (.267/124/36/131/6).

He made the Twins out of spring training in 2024, but his inability to make contact (17 strikeouts over 33 plate appearances – 2-for-25 with one run, one home run, and four RBIs) led to a demotion to AAA in mid-April. Wallner made 54 starts over Minnesota’s final 62 games, leading to a .282 batting average with 25 runs, 12 home runs, 33 RBIs, and three steals.

Matt Wallner comes in at #9 on The Shredder's #Top10RightNow at right field entering 2025. pic.twitter.com/2llT8L0VdO
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 24, 2025

His strikeout rate (29.9) has been massive in the minors while showing more risk with the Twins (34.5% - 36.4 in 2024). He walked 9.2% of the time last season in the majors. The Twins only gave him 38 at-bats against left-handed pitching (.184/3/1/3 with 21 strikeouts).

Wallner posted an elite contact batting average (.420) in his minors and in Minnesota (.424), which helps offset his batting average risk due to his high number of strikeouts. His exit velocity (92.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (53.2) ranked higher in 2024. His swing path has been fly-ball favoring (47.6%) over the past two seasons with the Twins while having repeated success in his HR/FB rate (21.7).

Fantasy Outlook: Wallner is an event player with many down days and empty at-bats. His foundation skill set supports 35+ home runs if given 550 at-bats. In 2023, he had more success at AAA vs. lefties (.239 with eight home runs and 26 RBIs over 113 at-bats), hinting at a better opportunity in this area down the road with Minnesota. For now, Wallner should be projected for about 450 at-bats, but his swing-and-miss approach can lead to slumps and a possible trip back to AAA. Let’s go with a better version of Joc Pederson, suggesting a .250/70/30/75 outcome in 2025.

65 – Wilyer Abreu, BOS (ADP – 278.7)

Abreu had an underwhelming profile over his first four seasons in the minors (.252 with 201 runs, 37 home runs, 152 RBIs, and 55 steals over 1,076 at-bats). He struck out 25.4% of the time with strength in his walk rate (11.8).

His game made a step forward at AAA (.274/67/22/65/8 over 299 at-bats) in 2023, earning him his first call-up to the majors. With the Red Sox that season, Abreu hit .316 with 10 runs, two home runs, 14 RBIs, and three steals over 76 at-bats.

After spring training last year, Boston used him as a platoon player against right-handed pitching. He hit .316 in April with 14 runs, two home runs, 12 RBIs, and four stolen bases over 76 at-bats. Over his next 29 games, Abreu delivered below-par stats (.237/12/4/10/3 over 93 at-bats), followed by three weeks on the injured list (sprained right ankle). His bat improved in July and August (.268/23/8/31 over 138 at-bats), but the Red Sox only had him in their lineup 37 times over 46 games. His season ended on a down note (12-for-69 with six runs, one home run, six RBIs, and one stolen base).

Wilyer Abreu’s 50.5% Hard-Hit% was top 6% in Major League Baseball.

He does this with borderline elite bat speed at 74.6 MPH (top 15%)

Launch Angle soared from 11.9 °📈19.2 ° and his Con%, O-Con%, and Z Con% all improved.

I like him to take another step forward.#DirtyWater pic.twitter.com/3zjbK6b9hI
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) January 11, 2025

His strikeout rate (28.0) rose slightly, with a step back in his still favorable walk rate (9.0). Abreu showed clutch ability based on his RBI rate (17). He ranked 33rd in exit velocity (91.6 mph) and 16th in hard-hit rate (50.5). His fly-ball rate (47.3) promotes power, but Abreu didn’t have a high HR/FB rate (12.4).

Fantasy Outlook: Boston gave him only 61 at-bats in 2024 against left-handed pitching (.180/4/1/5/1), painting him into a platoon corner. In 2025, he’ll have more competition for playing time, with Roman Anthony getting closer to being major-league-ready. In addition, the Red Sox could use David Hamilton more in the outfield due to two viable options at second base (Kristian Campbell and Vaugh Grissom). Abreu may be more helpful to Boston than fantasy leagues due to the challenge of managing his playing time. Getting better with a 20/15 skill set if even given 500 at-bats.

61 – Evan Carter, TEX (ADP – 290.1)

62 – Jordan Walker, STL (ADP – 299.2)

63 – Jo Adell, LAA (ADP – 278.7)

64 – Matt Wallner, MIN (ADP – 276.9)

65 – Wilyer Abreu, BOS (ADP – 278.7)

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