Predicting the MLS Supporters' Shield Race: Which Teams Have the Easiest Schedule?

The race for the 2025 MLS regular-season title looks to be an epic battle.

Anders Dreyer will hope to lead San Diego FC to the 2025 Supporters' Shield. / Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

The September international window may bring MLS to a near pause, but when things get back up and running, it’s a frantic sprint to the finish with several teams chasing the Supporters’ Shield and MLS Cup Playoff seeding. 

In some seasons, it can be relatively obvious which teams are clear of the rest, and the Supporters’ Shield race could be all but over by the time the September window rolls around. 

That is far from the case in 2025. With most teams having between six and nine games to go, the Supporters’ Shield race is more tense than ever, with nine teams, including the Philadelphia Union, San Diego FC, FC Cincinnati, Minnesota United, Nashville SC, Charlotte FC, Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Orlando City SC and Inter Miami in the race to take the title. 

But which teams are best positioned to take the title? For that, Sports Illustrated examines the top five teams ranked by points per game, utilizing RotoWire's Strength of Schedule model, which assigns higher ratings to indicate an easier schedule, among other considerations.

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Philadelphia Union 

• Current place: 1st in MLS (1st in PPG)
• Current Points: 57 
• Opponents: VAN, NER, D.C., NYCFC, CLT

Tai Baribo is in the running for the MLS Golden Boot with the league-leading Philadelphia Union. / Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Union banked plenty of points early in the season thanks to striker Tai Baribo’s fast start. While Baribo’s goalscoring rate has slowed down, he sits on X goals and is within the Golden Boot conversation, and remains the key factor for Philadelphia’s attacking outlook. 

Getting veteran starting goalkeeper Andre Blake back from injury will help instill confidence, despite some shining performances from 19-year-old Andrew Rick as well. Their next match against Vancouver will be challenging, but they will be favored to pick up wins in each of their other remaining matches. 

• Predicted points: 67
• Strength of Schedule Rating: 12

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San Diego FC

• Current place: 2nd in MLS (2nd in PPG)
• Current Points: 56 
• Opponents: MIN, ATL, SJE, HOU, POR

Anders Dreyer has been one of the best players in MLS in 2025 for San Diego FC. / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

It has been a dream inaugural season for San Diego FC, and their schedule to wrap up their remaining match is on the friendlier side as well. Head coach Mikey Varas will continue to rely on MLS MVP frontrunner Anders Dreyer and Hirving “Chucky” Lozano for the attacking success. Yet, they are far more than just two superstars, assembling one of the most well-balanced teams in the Western Conference. 

They are getting teams at the perfect time too, taking on a Minnesota United side that just sold their first-choice striker in Tani Oluwaseyi, and then facing very beatable Atlanta United, San Jose Earthquakes, Houston Dynamo and Portland Timbers. 

• Predicted Points: 69
• Strength of Schedule Rating: 12
  

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Inter Miami

• Current Place: 9th in MLS (3rd in PPG)
• Current Points: 46
• Opponents: CLT, SEA, D.C., TOR, NYCFC, NER, CHI, ATL, NSH

Lionel Messi will hope to lead Inter Miami through the busiest stretch of their season before the MLS Cup Playoffs. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Inter Miami saw several matches postponed to the end of the season due to their commitments in the FIFA Club World Cup and Leagues Cup, and will now have to navigate nine games in less than a month. 

Injuries have been a persistent issue all season for their aging core of Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez, Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba, and even Rodrigo De Paul, making the immense fixture congestion a significant blow to their Supporters’ Shield hopes.

• Predicted points: 63
• Strength of Schedule Rating: 27

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Vancouver Whitecaps FC

• Current Place: 7th in MLS (4th in PPG)
• Current Points: 49
• Opponents: PHI, SKC, POR, SEA, SJE, DAL, ORL

Thomas Muller will look to lead the Whitecaps to an MLS Cup in 2025. / Anne-Marie Sorvin-Imagn Images

Vancouver Whitecaps FC will have a condensed schedule due to Orlando City’s Leagues Cup run pushing their matchup to October, and other matches being rescheduled amid their run to the 2025 Concacaf Champions Cup Final. 

However, with Brian White’s 14 goals, the introduction of German legend Thomas Müller and the potential for club captain and DP midfielder Ryan Gauld to return, the Canadian group could be bullish on their chances at some season-ending silverware – especially considering their games in hand.

• Predicted points: 60
• Strength of Schedule Rating: 18

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FC Cincinnati

• Current Place: 3rd in MLS (5th in PPG)
• Current Points: 50
• Opponents: NSH, LA, ORL, RBNY, MTL

Evander has been the most essential piece of FC Cincinnati this season. / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

FC Cincinnati had the best transfer window of any MLS team, bringing back Brenner on loan from Udinese to help elevate the already stellar talents of Evander and Kévin Denkey. With their sustainable roster build and defined identity, FC Cincinnati are a team that has the ability to beat anyone in MLS, but have also shown their struggles in big matches. 

A recent loss to the Philadelphia Union at home was a big blow to their hopes of the Supporters’ Shield, but they have some very winnable matches down the stretch, and should be able to secure at least second in the Eastern Conference. 

• Predicted Points: 61
• Strength of Schedule Rating: 13

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Predicted Supporters Shield Winner: Philadelphia Union

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Which MLS Clubs have the Easiest Schedules?

• Ratings provided by RotoWire

Higher ratings indicate easier schedules

Club	Schedule Rating
LAFC	29
Inter Miami	27
Austin FC	25
Real Salt Lake	22
FC Dallas	21
St. Louis CITY SC	21
LA Galaxy	20
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	18
Seattle Sounders FC	18
Chicago Fire FC	18
Columbus Crew SC	16
Colorado Rapids	15
Houston Dynamo	15
New England Revolution	15
Sporting Kansas City	15
Minneota United	14
FC Cincinnati	13
Charlotte FC	13
Portland Timbers	13
Atlanta United	13
Philadelphia Union	12
San Diego FC	12
Orlando City SC	11
San Jose Earthquakes	11
New York City FC	10
New York Red Bulls	10
Toronto FC	10
CF Montréal	9
Nashville SC	8
D.C. United	7

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