Mailbag: 2021 Australian Open Is Shaping Up to Be a Historic Event

Wednesday is Mailbag Day…but first: here are three macro thoughts from the 2021 Australian Open.

• History beckons. Call it a karmic reward for the lengths it took to get this event up and running. But it is increasingly likely this will be a truly historic event. Most notably, Serena Williams is four sets from winning that elusive 24th major singles title. We have, of course, been here before—five times, to be precise—over the last four years. But Serena is moving well, slugging well and serving well. Pet theory: she also benefits from having no crowd or a reduced crowd. Novak Djokovic is two matches away from winning the Australian open for a ninth time—which would give him more titles in Melbourne than Roger Federer has at Wimbledon.

• We talk a lot here about tennis data. The deficiencies and the defects. The ways in which it can be useful both to tell a story and assess performance. But the more tennis one watches, the more you realize that there are elements of the sport that can’t be quantified. One of them is simply [insert your own cliché here] the will to win or the failure to accept defeat. There’s a small handful of players—the aforementioned and maybe add Naomi Osaka and Rafael Nadal—who simply decline to give any quarter when the match tightens. Whether it was Djokovic prevailing in the Zverev match that just ended…or Osaka‘s facing match point against Garbiñe Muguruza and then going the next 22 points without making an error…or Nadal getting his serve broken and then breaking right back…there have been so many matches in which the champion simply presents an ineffable quality that the challenger does not.

• Does any sport do a better job than tennis of furnishing the occasional Cinderella stories? This event may not yet be over but we can crown one winner in Aslan Karatsev. The surprise element here is almost comical. Here is a guy 27 years old who had won a grand total of three tour level matches, none of them at a major. At the previous major, he failed to qualify. Here, he did qualify, which meant heading to Australia for two weeks of quarantine. But in five matches, he has completely rewritten his career and his finances. A hard-hitting Russian (yes, they keep coming) he beat a compromised Grigor Dimitrov to reach the semifinals. He’s already won more money here than he has for his entire tennis career. More important, he has finally established himself as a fully-baked pro. Read more about his story here, and if you don’t find yourself rooting for him on some level, consult your cardiologist immediately.

Onward….

Mailbag

Have a question or comment for Jon? Email him at jon_wertheim@yahoo.com or tweet him @jon_wertheim.

Hi Jon! Obviously, much attention has been paid to Jessica's background as the daughter of the owners of the Buffalo Bills and Sabres. In her interviews, I've heard that she has said that there are benefits and challenges that stem from coming from a well-known sports family. Understandably, she's more comfortable talking about the challenges than the privileges, so I'm hoping that you might be able to opine on them. Obviously, no amount of money can buy the skills that she has, but money can buy a lot of other things: coaches, travel, time off for injury recovery, opportunities. But what do you think? Would she be in the position she's in right now without those financial resources?
—Sarah, Philadelphia

• Hopefully we are nearing the point when we can discuss Jessica Pegula without reference to her parents, Bills Mafia and her household income. Carly Simon’s father was the founder of Simon & Schuster. Loretta Lynn—to pick one musician among thousands—grew up in dire poverty. Kevin Durant was sometimes homeless as an adolescent. Steph Curry grew up in country club comfort, the son of an NBA player. For some performers, privilege enables them to go about their business absent pressure. For others it blunts motivation. On the other hand, poverty can be a motivator; it can also militate against success.

I give Jessica tremendous credit. She is no diva. She plays like no diva. And I’m sure there were countless times she could have quit tennis for a more conventional and cossetted life. Nevertheless, she persisted.

Five of the eight men's quarterfinalists are of Eastern European origin, and Zverev, while German-born, has Russian lineage. Is the center of gravity in men's tennis shifting from Spain and Western Europe to the Balkans and Russia? And where is the U.S. in this mix?
—Kasibhotla

• Martina made a similar point the other day, noting that 53 of the 128 players came from Slavic lineage. That’s amazing.

What’s something non-obvious that has impressed you most in the Australian Open so far?
—Rich R., Denver

• I was going to say Donna Vekic becoming the first player in tennis history to answer honestly a question about preferring one opponent to another. (Unsolicited, we might add!)

Q. Kaia has such a reputation of being dangerous at Grand Slams. When you saw you were going to play her what was your game plan going in?

DONNA VEKIC: Actually I would rather play her than Kenin.

But instead , would say the overall quality of play and the overall quality of the draw. This was a sideways event in so many respects. The quarantines. The specter of COVID. The shifted date. The crowds. The non-crowds. Yet look at the draw and you see a lot of chalk and a lot of familiar names. Certainly no fewer than in previous years. You also see a lot of superb tennis and no more retirements than we ordinarily witness.

Point 1: these are supremely conditioned athletes and supreme professionals. Spending two weeks in quarantine is not ideal preparation; but neither is it fatal.

Point 2: the best players are the best players. Ply them with rackets or frying pans. Old strings, new strings, fast courts, slow courts.

Can someone tell Gauff not to yell “Come on” after every point she wins? It was very off-putting. I am no pro, but I could totally see opponents being irritated by that. Imagine if Fognini was on the other side of that! Svitolina was just all business and glad she kept focus on her side.
—Tan

• I don’t mind Coco’s “come on’s” at all. She says them to herself, without histrionics. There are certainly louder players. I’d add that at an event without a crowd, it is all the more incumbent on the players to energize themselves.

Jon, I honestly think Djokovic sandbags injuries just for sympathy. Is he trying too hard to be liked?
—Bob Romero, Monee, Ill.

• You question athletes’ injuries at your peril. I don’t think he sandbags necessarily. I do think this is more Djokovic sloppiness, as opposed to malice. He volunteered that he tore an abdominal muscle. A torn muscle? That sounds a) horrible and b) like the kind of injury that will only be exacerbated by playing. Then when he wins, observers—here’s Patrick Mouratoglou—question him. And Djokovic then says he doesn’t want to discuss his health.

I do think this piece is worth reading: Novak Djokovic: Unfair media portrayal affects me but will never break my spirit. As we’ve said (often), the view here is that Djokovic is a good guy who commits a lot of off-court unforced errors.

Is there a shot clock at the Aussie open? Watching Fognini take almost 35 seconds between points with no reaction from umpire?
—P.G.

• I noticed this, too. There is a clock. But it’s never clear when it activates.

We see plenty of good in the future of men’s professional tennis. Bring on the young guns! During the first three rounds, some of the most engaging matches: Shapovalov vs. Sinner, Kyrgios vs. Humbert, Tiafoe vs. Djokovic, Kokkinakis vs. Tsitsipas, Kyrgios vs. Theim.

We think the 25-second rule is an imperfect tool. It seems to have hurt Frances Tiafoe—a guy who sweats even more than Nadal—perhaps unnecessarily. We really enjoyed the close encounters with tennis pros; and the podcast with Robbie Koenig.
—David and Sherrie, northern California

• Thanks and amen.

What, no ‘F’, or at best a ‘D’, for the AO mobile app?? Even with multiple updates, it still requires multiple attempts to get it to open. And not great once it does. It’s 20 freaking 21, how hard can this be?!??
—Helen of DC

• I try not to traffic in D’s and F’s. Snowflakes! Grade Inflation! But I’m with you. And long as we’re here, what about “D” for the piped-in crowd noise. Which, curiously, has included laughter.